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today's slate

NYM @ MIA

Wednesday · September 9, 2026·full·gamePk 823818free Saturday

refreshed 394h 21m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · loanDepot park

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

83°F

humidity 84%

wind

4 mph

in from CF

precip

overcast

park

MIA

retractable · HP→CF 40°

wind impact on total

-0.01 R/Gnone in

In wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Robert StockRHP · NYM	Janson JunkRHP · MIA
xERA 2026	4.53	4.23
xwOBA 2026	0.327	0.317
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.032	-0.001
xERA 2025	16.44	4.45
xwOBA 2025	0.536	0.326
Outs/TB 25-26	1.66	1.94
FIP 25-26	4.71	3.59
kwERA 25-26	4.59	3.94
K% 25-26	18.5%	16.8%
BB% 25-26	11.7%	4.6%
IP 25+26 combined	29.0	218.0
ERA actual 2026	5.81	4.00
ERA (L4)	4.00	2.33
WHIP (L4)	1.56	1.14
K% (L4)	20.2%	13.0%
BB% (L4)	9.5%	6.5%
IP/gm (L4)	4.50	4.83
L4 window	08/14→08/31 (4 st)	08/17→09/04 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	107 (+8)	95 (−5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.80 (+0.07)	6.20 (+1.60)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.58	-0.06

away arsenal — NYM

RV/100 -0.58

Cutter—-0.90xwOBA 0.486
4-Seam Fastball—+1.90xwOBA 0.194
Sinker—-2.20xwOBA 0.354
Sweeper—-2.30xwOBA 0.368
Changeup—-0.40xwOBA 0.250

home arsenal — MIA

RV/100 -0.06

4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.327
Slider—+0.10xwOBA 0.335
Changeup—+0.70xwOBA 0.288
Sweeper—-1.60xwOBA 0.301
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.289
Sinker—-1.00xwOBA 0.361

away · NYM vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.961

Σ match

2.966

Σ FRV

+10.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Francisco Lindor	0.336	0.332	-0.7
2	LF	Juan Soto	0.419	0.431	-3.1
3	3B	Bo Bichette	0.328	0.329	-2.1
4	RF	Carson Benge	0.335	0.331	+5.6
5	DH	Jared Young	0.310	0.311	+0.0
6	2B	Marcus Semien	0.304	0.300	-5.9
7	CF	A.J. Ewing	0.321	0.320	+6.8
8	1B	Brett Baty	0.313	0.319	+0.2
9	C	Luis Torrens	0.295	0.293	+9.9

home · MIA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.798

Σ match

3.149

Σ FRV

+18.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Kyle Stowers	0.333	0.372	-2.8
2	LF	Heriberto Hernández	0.355	0.378	+0.3
3	1B	Griffin Conine	0.367	0.419	-1.8
4	SS	Otto Lopez	0.324	0.365	+11.0
5	CF	Jakob Marsee	0.309	0.355	+3.8
6	2B	Javier Sanoja	0.289	0.320	+3.2
7	RF	Owen Caissie	0.293	0.340	-8.7
8	3B	Graham Pauley	0.238	0.264	+2.2
9	C	Joe Mack	0.290	0.337	+10.8

defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)

Luis Torrens

FRV+9.9
framing+6.1
blocking+1.5
throwing+2.3

defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)

Joe Mack

FRV+10.8
framing+6.1
blocking+0.2
throwing+4.5

NYM · Robert Stock

Last outing 2026-09-04 vs SF · 0.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	107
Location+	—	—	91
Pitching+	—	—	95
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	4.80

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIA · Janson Junk

Last outing 2026-09-04 vs CHC · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	95
Location+	—	—	100
Pitching+	—	—	96
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	6.20

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-04. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

NYM · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.31–0.46]

0.091 R/PA · 0.129 R/out · worst: Tobias Myers (4.09)

MIA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.38–0.54]

0.108 R/PA · 0.153 R/out · worst: Josh Ekness (5.16)

NYM

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kodai Senga	BULK	CL	5.77	25.8	14.4	3.39	7/0/1	ramping down
Austin Warren	OPENER	MR	4.27	26.5	11.1	1.35	0/1/9	stable
Tobias Myers	OPENER	MR	4.91	17.3	6.4	1.77	1/3/5	stable
Daniel Duarte	MR	MR	2.90	26.0	6.0	1.67	2/6/2	insufficient data
Jonathan Pintaro	MR	MR	4.75	24.1	12.0	2.47	0/2/2	ramping up
Chris Devenski	MOP_UP	MR	5.67	15.6	0.0	0.78	0/1/1	insufficient data
Nate Lavender	unknown	SU	1.30	34.0	6.0	—	0/9/0	—
Dedniel Núñez	unknown	SU	4.04	24.1	0.0	—	0/3/0	—

MIA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Pete Fairbanks	CLOSER	CL	4.47	32.2	10.7	0.92	18/2/26	stable
Calvin Faucher	SETUP	CL	2.93	25.1	12.7	0.98	3/15/7	stable
Michael Petersen	SETUP	SU	3.40	28.6	11.1	1.06	1/23/4	stable
Dax Fulton	BULK	MR	3.04	22.7	14.8	2.50	0/0/3	ramping down
Cade Gibson	MR	MR	4.20	18.8	10.9	1.28	0/4/7	stable
Victor Vodnik	MR	MR	4.24	16.2	12.2	1.08	4/6/12	stable
Tyler Zuber	MR	SU	4.48	25.5	5.5	0.87	1/8/5	stable
Josh Ekness	MR	MR	4.80	15.8	13.9	0.89	1/2/2	stable
Jack Ralston	unknown	MR	4.40	20.0	11.4	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

15 NYM · 14 MIA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

NYM

15 R

15H · 2HR · 6BB · 7K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.460 · SLGe 0.561 · K% 14.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 14 ER · 7 K · relief 5.0 IP · 7 arms

MIA

14 R

20H · 2HR · 4BB · 7K · 24LOB

OBPe 0.491 · SLGe 0.638 · K% 13.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 15 ER · 7 K · relief 6.0 IP · 8 arms

NYM · standout lines

big nights

Francisco Lindor (SS) · 1-5 | HR, HBP, KHR
A.J. Ewing (CF) · 3-4 | K, 2 RBI, 2 R3 H
Christopher Morel (1B) · 3-4 | HR, 2B, KHR · 3 H · 7 TB
Luis Torrens (C) · 3-5 | 2B, K, 4 RBI3 H · 4 TB · 4 RBI

tough nights

Juan Soto (LF) · 0-5 | BB, K0-for-5
Carson Benge (RF) · 0-4 | BB, HBP, K0-for-4

MIA · standout lines

big nights

Griffin Conine (1B) · 3-6 | 2B, K, 2 RBI3 H · 4 TB
Otto Lopez (SS) · 2-3 | 3B, BB, 2 HBP4 TB
Jakob Marsee (CF) · 4-6 | 3 RBI, R4 H · 4 TB
Owen Caissie (RF) · 2-5 | HR, BB, KHR

tough nights

Heriberto Hernández (LF) · 0-4 | 2 BB, K, R0-for-4