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CHC @ MIL

Wednesday · September 9, 2026·full·gamePk 823739free Saturday

refreshed 394h 17m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · American Family Field

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

78°F

humidity 71%

wind

7 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

clear

park

MIL

retractable · HP→CF 137°

wind impact on total

neutralnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Kevin GausmanRHP · CHC	Logan HendersonRHP · MIL
xERA 2026	3.89	2.64
xwOBA 2026	0.305	0.253
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.005	-0.010
xERA 2025	3.74	3.69
xwOBA 2025	0.301	0.299
Outs/TB 25-26	2.10	2.57
FIP 25-26	3.48	3.20
kwERA 25-26	3.26	2.35
K% 25-26	24.3%	30.8%
BB% 25-26	6.4%	5.3%
IP 25+26 combined	355.3	108.7
ERA actual 2026	4.38	2.48
ERA (L4)	2.13	1.67
WHIP (L4)	0.95	0.56
K% (L4)	24.5%	25.5%
BB% (L4)	5.1%	3.2%
IP/gm (L4)	6.33	6.75
L4 window	08/07→09/03 (4 st)	08/16→09/03 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	92 (−5)	97 (−7)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.31 (−0.42)	4.12 (+1.04)
Arsenal RV/100	0.19	1.24

away arsenal — CHC

RV/100 0.19

4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.341
Split-Finger—+0.00xwOBA 0.236
Slider—-3.00xwOBA 0.434

home arsenal — MIL

RV/100 1.24

4-Seam Fastball—+1.80xwOBA 0.235
Changeup—+0.90xwOBA 0.251
Cutter—+0.40xwOBA 0.300

away · CHC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.936

Σ match

2.336

Σ FRV

+53.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0.372	0.294	+26.9
2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	0.340	0.281	+6.6
3	1B	Michael Busch	0.329	0.246	+1.5
4	3B	Alex Bregman	0.318	0.261	+6.3
5	DH	Ian Happ	0.313	0.241	+5.1
6	SS	Nico Hoerner	0.323	0.253	+8.0
7	2B	Pedro Ramírez	0.293	0.236	+0.5
8	LF	Michael Conforto	0.338	0.263	-1.8
9	C	Carson Kelly	0.310	0.261	+0.3

home · MIL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.894

Σ match

2.833

Σ FRV

+22.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Jackson Chourio	0.336	0.338	+6.6
2	2B	Brice Turang	0.338	0.330	+11.8
3	C	William Contreras	0.331	0.321	-2.4
4	1B	Andrew Vaughn	0.335	0.350	-6.3
5	DH	Christian Yelich	0.316	0.330	+0.0
6	RF	Sal Frelick	0.283	0.273	-2.1
7	3B	Joey Ortiz	0.295	0.265	+9.0
8	CF	Garrett Mitchell	0.351	0.320	+3.8
9	SS	Cooper Pratt	0.309	0.307	+2.4

defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carson Kelly

FRV+0.3
framing+1.2
blocking+1.5
throwing-2.4

defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)

William Contreras

FRV-2.4
framing-4.6
blocking-0.7
throwing+2.9

CHC · Kevin Gausman

Last outing 2026-09-03 vs MIL · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	92
Location+	—	—	104
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	3.31

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-09-03. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-03; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIL · Logan Henderson

Last outing 2026-09-03 vs CHC · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	109
Pitching+	—	—	104
botOvr	—	—	57
SIERA	—	—	4.12

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-03. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.37–0.50]

0.102 R/PA · 0.145 R/out · worst: Trent Thornton (4.64)

MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.37–0.46]

0.098 R/PA · 0.138 R/out · worst: Antonio Senzatela (4.15)

CHC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Daniel Palencia	CLOSER	SU	4.40	26.3	8.4	0.88	3/0/12	stable
Jacob Webb	SETUP	CL	3.93	25.7	8.4	0.98	9/8/14	stable
Ryan Zeferjahn	SETUP	SU	3.95	31.1	13.4	1.15	5/13/15	stable
Caleb Thielbar	SETUP	MR	5.04	29.0	9.3	0.85	3/7/6	stable
Ryan Rolison	OPENER	MR	3.98	22.3	10.9	1.12	2/7/13	stable
Trent Thornton	MR	MR	5.37	15.3	9.0	1.11	3/6/9	ramping down
Aaron Civale	SP	MR	4.56	19.1	6.8	4.67	2/0/0	ramping down
Colin Rea	SP	LR	4.88	17.3	8.2	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up

MIL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Trevor Megill	CLOSER	CL	1.92	28.8	6.8	0.97	27/7/21	stable
Abner Uribe	SETUP	SU	2.93	25.9	9.0	0.99	6/20/13	stable
Aaron Ashby	SETUP	SU	3.03	31.2	11.2	1.23	2/15/5	stable
JoJo Romero	SETUP	MR	4.25	22.1	8.8	0.98	0/21/4	stable
Chad Patrick	SWING	MR	4.01	20.8	9.9	2.46	5/10/5	ramping down
Antonio Senzatela	MR	MR	3.62	19.2	8.7	1.61	3/10/11	ramping down
DL Hall	MR	MR	3.83	27.6	15.6	1.29	0/5/5	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 CHC · 8 MIL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CHC

6 R

5H · 0HR · 5BB · 9K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.306 · SLGe 0.233 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 6 ER · 10 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

MIL

8 R

9H · 3HR · 2BB · 10K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.297 · SLGe 0.514 · K% 27.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 9 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

CHC · standout lines

tough nights

Ian Happ (DH) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K, RBI0-for-3 · 2 K
Pedro Ramírez (2B) · 0-4 | K, RBI0-for-4

MIL · standout lines

big nights

Jackson Chourio (LF) · 3-5 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR · 3 H
William Contreras (C) · 2-3 | HR, BB, KHR
Christian Yelich (DH) · 1-4 | HR, 3 K, 3 RBIHR

tough nights

Garrett Mitchell (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K, R, SB0-for-4 · 2 K
Cooper Pratt (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4