Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

COL @ NYY

Wednesday · September 9, 2026·full·gamePk 823497free Saturday

refreshed 394h 16m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Yankee Stadium

gametime 7:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

76°F

humidity 76%

wind

8 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

clear

park

NYY

open · HP→CF 75°

wind impact on total

+0.01 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Tomoyuki SuganoRHP · COL	Will WarrenRHP · NYY
xERA 2026	6.80	4.53
xwOBA 2026	0.389	0.327
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.027	0.008
xERA 2025	5.81	4.58
xwOBA 2025	0.366	0.330
Outs/TB 25-26	1.50	1.78
FIP 25-26	5.33	4.11
kwERA 25-26	4.25	3.63
K% 25-26	14.9%	23.3%
BB% 25-26	5.3%	8.6%
IP 25+26 combined	288.7	298.7
ERA actual 2026	5.19	4.16
ERA (L4)	10.00	4.50
WHIP (L4)	2.00	1.55
K% (L4)	14.1%	21.1%
BB% (L4)	4.3%	10.0%
IP/gm (L4)	4.50	5.00
L4 window	08/17→09/02 (4 st)	08/12→08/30 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	81 (+0)	98 (−6)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.55 (−0.32)	5.04 (+1.03)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.91	-0.63

away arsenal — COL

RV/100 -0.91

Split-Finger—+0.20xwOBA 0.314
4-Seam Fastball—-1.30xwOBA 0.414
Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.452
Cutter—-2.90xwOBA 0.487
Sweeper—-1.70xwOBA 0.341
Slider—-2.40xwOBA 0.320
Curveball—+0.50xwOBA 0.324

home arsenal — NYY

RV/100 -0.63

4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.319
Sinker—-1.40xwOBA 0.353
Sweeper—-1.20xwOBA 0.365
Changeup—+0.40xwOBA 0.270
Curveball—-2.10xwOBA 0.293

away · COL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.793

Σ match

2.974

Σ FRV

-2.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Jake McCarthy	0.322	0.347	-1.1
2	SS	Cole Carrigg	0.317	0.334	+1.7
3	1B	TJ Rumfield	0.335	0.363	+5.5
4	DH	Hunter Goodman	0.323	0.344	-1.2
5	RF	Mickey Moniak	0.282	0.306	-0.0
6	3B	Kyle Karros	0.337	0.353	+0.4
7	C	Brett Sullivan	0.288	0.307	-5.1
8	2B	Connor Norby	0.298	0.322	-0.9
9	LF	Zac Veen	0.291	0.297	-2.2

home · NYY vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.955

Σ match

3.641

Σ FRV

+11.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Ben Rice	0.376	0.464	-4.6
2	LF	Cody Bellinger	0.339	0.416	+10.0
3	RF	Aaron Judge	0.411	0.484	-1.2
4	1B	Luis García Jr.	0.348	0.436	+0.8
5	CF	Spencer Jones	0.324	0.383	-1.9
6	SS	George Lombard Jr.	0.283	0.336	-0.6
7	3B	Ryan McMahon	0.304	0.391	+2.2
8	C	Austin Wells	0.290	0.370	+5.4
9	2B	José Caballero	0.280	0.362	+1.2

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Brett Sullivan

FRV-5.1
framing-3.7
blocking-0.1
throwing-1.3

defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Wells

FRV+5.4
framing+5.4
blocking+1.4
throwing-1.5

COL · Tomoyuki Sugano

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs BAL · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	81
Location+	—	—	100
Pitching+	—	—	84
botOvr	—	—	45
SIERA	—	—	4.55

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

NYY · Will Warren

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs BOS · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	105
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	5.04

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.44–0.52]

0.113 R/PA · 0.160 R/out · worst: Juan Mejia (4.62)

NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.36–0.52]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Tim Hill (4.75)

COL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jordan Romano	CLOSER	CL	3.52	24.8	12.0	0.79	15/1/13	stable
Jaden Hill	SETUP	MR	4.21	22.6	13.2	0.83	2/13/4	stable
Juan Mejia	SETUP	SU	4.34	19.9	13.4	1.10	4/9/16	stable
Brennan Bernardino	OPENER	SU	3.73	17.1	6.2	0.86	1/12/7	stable
Jimmy Herget	OPENER	MR	5.37	20.0	11.5	0.99	3/10/10	stable
Zach Agnos	SWING	MR	4.45	14.9	7.9	2.28	2/1/10	stable
Blas Castaño	MR	LR	4.79	19.4	7.1	2.07	0/0/2	stable
Nick Frasso	unknown	MR	2.35	21.5	7.7	—	0/0/0	—
Mark Manfredi	unknown	MR	2.38	28.3	13.0	—	0/0/0	—

NYY

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
David Bednar	CLOSER	CL	2.42	28.0	7.2	1.10	32/0/35	stable
Brent Headrick	SETUP	SU	2.16	30.7	7.1	1.01	0/26/6	stable
John Schreiber	SETUP	MR	4.83	17.3	11.2	0.91	1/14/5	stable
Tim Hill	SETUP	MR	5.59	10.9	5.5	0.84	2/10/6	stable
Paul Blackburn	OPENER	SU	3.70	21.3	9.2	1.53	1/10/13	stable
Ryan Yarbrough	MR	MR	3.76	17.3	9.3	1.59	3/1/14	stable
Michael Fulmer	unknown	MR	4.71	25.0	13.9	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 COL · 6 NYY

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

COL

1 R

5H · 1HR · 3BB · 11K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.235 · SLGe 0.355 · K% 32.4

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 6 ER · 6 K · relief 2.0 IP · 2 arms

NYY

6 R

7H · 3HR · 3BB · 6K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.294 · SLGe 0.581 · K% 17.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 11 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

COL · standout lines

big nights

Connor Norby (2B) · 2-3 | HR, 2B, KHR

tough nights

Cole Carrigg (SS) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Hunter Goodman (DH) · 0-40-for-4
Mickey Moniak (RF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K

NYY · standout lines

big nights

Cody Bellinger (LF) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR
Luis García Jr. (1B) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, 2 KHR
George Lombard Jr. (SS) · 1-4 | HR, 4 RBI, RHR · 4 RBI

tough nights

Ben Rice (DH) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Ryan McMahon (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4