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today's slate

HOU @ PHI

Wednesday · September 9, 2026·full·gamePk 823416free Saturday

refreshed 394h 21m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Citizens Bank Park

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

81°F

humidity 57%

wind

9 mph

out to CF

precip

partly cloudy

park

PHI

open · HP→CF 16°

wind impact on total

+0.30 R/Gmoderate out

Moderate wind out: +0.30 R/G vs neutral. _Open bowl + short porches both sides + warm SW summer wind out to RF = launching pad_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Hunter BrownRHP · HOU	Cristopher SánchezLHP · PHI
xERA 2026	3.52	3.22
xwOBA 2026	0.291	0.279
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.009	0.009
xERA 2025	3.16	3.02
xwOBA 2025	0.278	0.272
Outs/TB 25-26	2.59	2.37
FIP 25-26	3.46	2.56
kwERA 25-26	3.24	2.84
K% 25-26	27.4%	26.9%
BB% 25-26	9.3%	5.5%
IP 25+26 combined	272.3	383.3
ERA actual 2026	3.31	2.58
ERA (L4)	2.31	2.92
WHIP (L4)	1.37	1.30
K% (L4)	27.1%	24.8%
BB% (L4)	11.5%	5.9%
IP/gm (L4)	5.83	6.17
L4 window	08/16→09/03 (4 st)	08/11→09/04 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	106 (+3)	104 (−13)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.31 (+0.14)	3.35 (+0.50)
Arsenal RV/100	0.24	0.73

away arsenal — HOU

RV/100 0.24

4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.232
Sinker—+1.20xwOBA 0.309
Curveball—-0.50xwOBA 0.268
Changeup—-1.70xwOBA 0.429
Slider—-0.50xwOBA 0.303

home arsenal — PHI

RV/100 0.73

Sinker—+0.00xwOBA 0.363
Changeup—+1.30xwOBA 0.196
Slider—+1.30xwOBA 0.252

away · HOU vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.815

Σ match

2.527

Σ FRV

-2.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jeremy Peña	0.325	0.285	-2.9
2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	0.447	0.368	-2.7
3	3B	Isaac Paredes	0.320	0.283	+0.8
4	2B	Jose Altuve	0.274	0.239	-8.1
5	C	Yainer Diaz	0.300	0.272	-4.7
6	1B	Christian Walker	0.303	0.290	+4.2
7	CF	Daulton Varsho	0.292	0.263	+4.3
8	RF	Cam Smith	0.319	0.288	+3.2
9	LF	Jorge Barrosa	0.235	0.239	+3.4

home · PHI vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.878

Σ match

2.735

Σ FRV

-8.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Kyle Schwarber	0.369	0.358	-0.8
2	SS	Trea Turner	0.294	0.290	-7.6
3	DH	Bryce Harper	0.391	0.366	-11.5
4	2B	Luis Arraez	0.305	0.272	+10.2
5	3B	Bryson Stott	0.330	0.309	+5.2
6	LF	Brandon Marsh	0.306	0.301	-5.5
7	CF	Justin Crawford	0.281	0.262	-1.1
8	C	J.T. Realmuto	0.321	0.301	+1.1
9	RF	Bryan De La Cruz	0.281	0.277	+1.0

defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)

Yainer Diaz

FRV-4.7
framing-4.2
blocking-0.0
throwing-0.6

defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)

J.T. Realmuto

FRV+1.1
framing+0.1
blocking-1.0
throwing+2.1

HOU · Hunter Brown

Last outing 2026-09-03 vs CWS · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	106
Location+	—	—	100
Pitching+	—	—	107
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	4.31

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-03. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-03; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

PHI · Cristopher Sánchez

Last outing 2026-09-04 vs ATL · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	104
Location+	—	—	99
Pitching+	—	—	105
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	3.35

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-17 → 2026-09-04. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

HOU · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.32–0.52]

0.098 R/PA · 0.139 R/out · worst: Bennett Sousa (4.19)

PHI · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.37R / inningband [0.31–0.42]

0.087 R/PA · 0.123 R/out · worst: Orion Kerkering (4.02)

HOU

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Josh Hader	CLOSER	CL	1.60	35.8	7.4	0.91	24/0/14	stable
Bryan Abreu	CLOSER	SU	4.52	29.4	16.3	0.92	8/14/21	stable
Enyel De Los Santos	SETUP	MR	3.67	22.0	6.5	1.07	5/10/13	stable
AJ Blubaugh	SETUP	SU	3.98	24.3	9.6	1.68	1/10/6	ramping up
Bryan King	SETUP	MR	4.77	18.2	7.9	1.07	6/12/11	stable
Miguel Ullola	MR	MR	4.37	37.0	3.7	2.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Bennett Sousa	MOP_UP	MR	4.46	23.9	13.8	0.67	0/9/2	stable
Tatsuya Imai	SP	LR	4.41	27.9	14.9	3.86	0/0/0	ramping down

PHI

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jhoan Duran	CLOSER	CL	1.33	34.1	4.3	0.94	30/0/35	stable
Jonathan Bowlan	SETUP	SU	3.23	31.6	6.6	0.93	2/13/2	stable
Brooks Raley	SETUP	MR	3.62	23.6	8.2	0.89	1/16/5	stable
José Alvarado	SETUP	MR	3.72	26.9	10.1	0.85	1/14/3	stable
Orion Kerkering	SETUP	SU	3.87	23.5	11.9	0.94	2/17/5	stable
Tim Mayza	OPENER	MR	3.21	24.2	6.1	1.15	0/1/9	stable
Chase Shugart	MR	LR	5.00	27.8	9.3	1.13	0/0/10	stable
Alex McFarlane	unknown	MR	3.60	22.9	10.4	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 HOU · 11 PHI

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

HOU

7 R

12H · 2HR · 0BB · 6K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.316 · SLGe 0.595 · K% 15.8

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 9 ER · 12 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms

PHI

11 R

12H · 2HR · 4BB · 12K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.400 · SLGe 0.528 · K% 30.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 6 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

HOU · standout lines

big nights

Isaac Paredes (3B) · 2-4 | HR, K, 3 RBIHR
Cam Smith (RF) · 2-4 | HR, 2 RBI, 2 RHR

tough nights

Christian Walker (1B) · 0-40-for-4

PHI · standout lines

big nights

Kyle Schwarber (1B) · 1-5 | HR, 3 K, 4 RBIHR · 4 RBI
Trea Turner (SS) · 2-5 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR