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today's slate

WSH @ SD

Wednesday · September 9, 2026·full·gamePk 823251free Saturday

refreshed 396h 9m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Petco Park

gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

99°F

humidity 29%

wind

9 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

clear

park

open · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

+0.04 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Jackson KentLHP · WSH	Walker BuehlerRHP · SD
xERA 2026	5.18	4.14
xwOBA 2026	0.347	0.314
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.020	0.012
xERA 2025	—	5.41
xwOBA 2025	—	0.355
Outs/TB 25-26	2.28	1.84
FIP 25-26	4.24	4.96
kwERA 25-26	5.19	4.37
K% 25-26	18.8%	18.4%
BB% 25-26	17.0%	9.8%
IP 25+26 combined	24.3	262.3
ERA actual 2026	5.55	4.56
ERA (L4)	5.31	1.96
WHIP (L4)	1.62	0.78
K% (L4)	16.1%	23.2%
BB% (L4)	15.1%	7.3%
IP/gm (L4)	5.08	5.75
L4 window	08/18→09/04 (4 st)	08/11→09/04 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	90 (+4)	99 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.45 (−0.17)	4.61 (+0.28)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.53	0.02

away arsenal — WSH

RV/100 -0.53

4-Seam Fastball—-1.90xwOBA 0.401
Changeup—-0.60xwOBA 0.317
Slider—-0.60xwOBA 0.337
Curveball—+0.70xwOBA 0.151
Sinker—+1.60xwOBA 0.416

home arsenal — SD

RV/100 0.02

Cutter—+1.10xwOBA 0.293
4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.378
Sinker—+1.90xwOBA 0.283
Slider—+2.50xwOBA 0.233
Changeup—-5.30xwOBA 0.401
Curveball—-2.50xwOBA 0.359
Sweeper—-1.00xwOBA 0.269

away · WSH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.972

Σ match

2.993

Σ FRV

-1.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	James Wood	0.416	0.426	-8.5
2	RF	Dylan Crews	0.312	0.304	+1.3
3	3B	Andrés Chaparro	0.349	0.357	-2.8
4	2B	CJ Abrams	0.328	0.339	-11.7
5	1B	Yohandy Morales	0.372	0.338	-0.3
6	LF	Daylen Lile	0.327	0.342	+2.8
7	C	Keibert Ruiz	0.285	0.291	+0.7
8	SS	Nasim Nuñez	0.266	0.271	+8.2
9	CF	Jacob Young	0.317	0.325	+9.0

home · SD vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.903

Σ match

3.183

Σ FRV

+27.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.375	0.410	+5.3
2	SS	Xander Bogaerts	0.321	0.350	+3.7
3	3B	Manny Machado	0.338	0.371	+5.1
4	1B	Ty France	0.334	0.360	+9.2
5	CF	Jackson Merrill	0.341	0.364	+9.2
6	C	Luis Campusano	0.343	0.376	-3.5
7	DH	Austin Hays	0.273	0.313	-1.9
8	LF	Samad Taylor	0.308	0.335	-0.7
9	RF	Jase Bowen	0.270	0.303	+1.5

defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)

Keibert Ruiz

FRV+0.7
framing+2.5
blocking+0.0
throwing-1.9

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Luis Campusano

FRV-3.5
framing-5.0
blocking-0.7
throwing+2.2

WSH · Jackson Kent

Last outing 2026-09-04 vs LAD · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	90
Location+	—	—	97
Pitching+	—	—	86
botOvr	—	—	48
SIERA	—	—	5.45

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-04. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SD · Walker Buehler

Last outing 2026-09-04 vs NYY · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	99
Location+	—	—	112
Pitching+	—	—	105
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	4.61

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-17 → 2026-09-04. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.36–0.50]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Luis Perales (4.97)

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.34–0.47]

0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.52)

WSH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brad Lord	SETUP	MR	4.09	21.8	9.3	2.15	1/6/4	stable
Clayton Beeter	SETUP	CL	5.51	22.3	15.0	0.96	12/9/11	stable
Eddy Yean	MR	MR	4.09	15.4	5.1	2.00	0/1/0	insufficient data
Will Dion	MR	LR	4.10	28.5	7.6	1.79	0/0/6	ramping down
Riley Cornelio	MR	MR	4.45	23.3	18.1	2.04	0/0/2	ramping down
Yovanny Cruz	MR	MR	4.54	23.4	14.9	1.44	0/2/1	insufficient data
Erik Tolman	unknown	MR	2.01	27.3	9.1	—	1/1/0	—
Jared Simpson	unknown	MR	3.34	28.6	21.4	—	0/0/0	—
Jack Sinclair	unknown	MR	5.09	23.1	15.4	—	0/0/0	—
Luis Perales	unknown	SU	8.69	17.9	14.3	—	0/0/0	—

SD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Mason Miller	CLOSER	CL	0.95	48.5	9.0	1.04	34/0/34	stable
Adrian Morejon	SETUP	SU	2.41	29.8	7.5	1.16	3/23/6	stable
Kyle Hart	SETUP	MR	3.41	23.1	7.9	1.40	0/8/5	stable
Bradgley Rodriguez	OPENER	SU	2.30	27.1	6.8	1.09	2/13/5	stable
Wandy Peralta	OPENER	MR	4.04	15.4	8.1	1.17	0/4/14	stable
David Morgan	MR	MR	4.11	23.8	12.7	1.22	0/1/5	stable
Yuki Matsui	MR	MR	4.32	27.1	14.0	1.35	0/8/5	ramping down
Griffin Canning	SP	MR	4.78	22.7	10.5	4.24	0/1/0	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 WSH · 9 SD

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

WSH

2 R

4H · 1HR · 3BB · 8K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.206 · SLGe 0.226 · K% 23.5

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 9 ER · 7 K · relief 5.0 IP · 4 arms

SD

9 R

16H · 2HR · 3BB · 7K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.452 · SLGe 0.684 · K% 16.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 8 K · relief 6.7 IP · 6 arms

WSH · standout lines

big nights

Keibert Ruiz (C) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Andrés Chaparro (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
CJ Abrams (SS) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Daylen Lile (LF) · 0-40-for-4

SD · standout lines

big nights

Fernando Tatis Jr. (2B) · 3-5 | RBI, R3 H
Ty France (1B) · 3-5 | 2B, K, RBI3 H · 4 TB
Jackson Merrill (CF) · 4-5 | 2 HR, 3B, 6 RBI2-HR night · 4 H · 12 TB · 6 RBI

tough nights

Manny Machado (3B) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K, R0-for-4 · 2 K
Jase Bowen (RF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K