Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

STL @ SF

Wednesday · September 9, 2026·full·gamePk 823172free Saturday

refreshed 397h 32m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oracle Park

gametime 3:45 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

93°F

humidity 17%

wind

5 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

overcast

park

open · HP→CF 91°

wind impact on total

-0.03 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Andre PallanteRHP · STL	Blade TidwellRHP · SF
xERA 2026	3.89	4.09
xwOBA 2026	0.305	0.312
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.007	-0.008
xERA 2025	4.30	5.62
xwOBA 2025	0.321	0.361
Outs/TB 25-26	1.99	2.04
FIP 25-26	4.22	5.19
kwERA 25-26	4.45	4.49
K% 25-26	16.1%	18.5%
BB% 25-26	8.2%	10.9%
IP 25+26 combined	303.7	57.7
ERA actual 2026	3.51	4.43
ERA (L4)	2.42	6.30
WHIP (L4)	1.34	1.40
K% (L4)	13.6%	20.0%
BB% (L4)	12.5%	15.3%
IP/gm (L4)	5.58	5.00
L4 window	08/05→09/04 (4 st)	08/16→09/03 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	85 (−12)	100 (−9)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.18 (−0.14)	5.88 (+1.34)
Arsenal RV/100	0.55	0.37

away arsenal — STL

RV/100 0.55

4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.329
Slider—+1.90xwOBA 0.271
Sinker—-0.20xwOBA 0.324
Curveball—-2.00xwOBA 0.301

home arsenal — SF

RV/100 0.37

Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.223
4-Seam Fastball—-1.50xwOBA 0.413
Sinker—+2.90xwOBA 0.344
Slider—-0.20xwOBA 0.371
Curveball—+2.90xwOBA 0.114

away · STL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.837

Σ match

2.902

Σ FRV

+16.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Bryan Torres	0.300	0.326	+1.7
2	DH	Iván Herrera	0.333	0.332	-4.5
3	1B	Alec Burleson	0.376	0.392	+4.3
4	C	Leo Bernal	0.344	0.338	-0.4
5	RF	Joshua Báez	0.316	0.319	-1.7
6	3B	Nolan Gorman	0.277	0.303	+1.0
7	2B	Thomas Saggese	0.310	0.302	+0.3
8	SS	Masyn Winn	0.299	0.309	+15.0
9	CF	Nathan Church	0.282	0.282	+0.8

home · SF vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.727

Σ match

2.706

Σ FRV

-2.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Drew Gilbert	0.324	0.314	+2.9
2	DH	Turner Hill	0.333	0.329	-0.7
3	1B	Bryce Eldridge	0.358	0.361	+1.4
4	2B	Jonah Cox	0.260	0.267	+1.6
5	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0.315	0.299	-5.9
6	3B	Shay Whitcomb	0.249	0.273	-0.7
7	C	Drew Cavanaugh	0.319	0.311	-1.5
8	LF	Grant McCray	0.323	0.310	-2.1
9	SS	Christian Koss	0.246	0.242	+2.0

defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)

Leo Bernal

FRV-0.4
framing+0.6
blocking+0.1
throwing-0.4

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Drew Cavanaugh

FRV-1.5
framing-2.4
blocking+0.6
throwing+0.3

STL · Andre Pallante

Last outing 2026-09-04 vs COL · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	85
Location+	—	—	95
Pitching+	—	—	93
botOvr	—	—	45
SIERA	—	—	4.18

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-09-04. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SF · Blade Tidwell

Last outing 2026-09-03 vs PIT · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	89
Pitching+	—	—	88
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	5.88

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-03. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-03; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

STL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.27–0.63]

0.106 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Justin Bruihl (4.59)

SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.50R / inningband [0.40–0.60]

0.118 R/PA · 0.167 R/out · worst: Philip Abner (5.78)

STL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Riley O'Brien	CLOSER	CL	3.65	22.7	10.4	0.99	36/1/33	stable
Justin Bruihl	SETUP	MR	3.99	15.1	8.4	1.11	0/10/5	ramping up
Ryne Stanek	SETUP	SU	4.66	24.4	11.8	0.89	2/25/5	stable
George Soriano	SETUP	SU	4.79	23.1	11.2	0.98	3/21/7	stable
Brycen Mautz	BULK	MR	6.53	22.9	14.6	3.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Gordon Graceffo	MR	MR	3.92	18.2	11.0	1.18	1/6/10	stable
Luis Gastelum	MR	MR	4.45	30.3	8.4	1.00	0/1/1	stable
Cooper Hjerpe	unknown	LR	0.09	50.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Cade Winquest	unknown	MR	2.42	21.7	8.7	—	0/1/0	—

SF

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Joel Kuhnel	SETUP	CL	5.27	13.5	7.6	1.01	7/6/16	stable
Dylan Smith	MR	CL	3.42	27.7	10.8	0.88	4/7/5	stable
Jason Foley	MR	MR	3.76	13.8	9.2	1.00	0/2/0	insufficient data
Reiver Sanmartin	MR	MR	4.30	18.2	6.8	1.67	0/4/1	insufficient data
Philip Abner	MR	MR	5.74	9.4	12.5	1.87	0/0/1	stable
Carson Seymour	MR	MR	6.04	16.2	11.7	2.17	1/7/0	insufficient data
Trent Harris	unknown	SU	1.69	32.8	10.9	—	0/4/0	—
Matt Wilkinson	unknown	MR	6.36	12.5	6.2	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 STL · 7 SF

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

STL

6 R

8H · 1HR · 3BB · 5K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.342 · SLGe 0.375 · K% 13.2

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 7 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms

SF

7 R

10H · 0HR · 1BB · 9K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.353 · SLGe 0.406 · K% 26.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 5 K · relief 5.0 IP · 4 arms

STL · standout lines

big nights

Leo Bernal (C) · 1-4 | HR, 3 RBI, RHR

SF · standout lines

tough nights

Turner Hill (DH) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K, R0-for-3 · 2 K
Grant McCray (LF) · 0-3 | 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K