Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

TEX @ SEA

Wednesday · September 9, 2026·full·gamePk 823090free Saturday

refreshed 397h 9m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · T-Mobile Park

gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

68°F

humidity 65%

wind

6 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

overcast

park

SEA

retractable · HP→CF 36°

wind impact on total

+0.01 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Cody BradfordLHP · TEX	Kade AndersonLHP · SEA
xERA 2026	5.46	3.15
xwOBA 2026	0.355	0.276
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.025	0.081
xERA 2025	—	—
xwOBA 2025	—	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.44	1.73
FIP 25-26	4.54	5.62
kwERA 25-26	4.59	4.64
K% 25-26	11.9%	17.5%
BB% 25-26	5.2%	11.1%
IP 25+26 combined	30.3	15.0
ERA actual 2026	4.45	5.40
ERA (L4)	5.68	7.20
WHIP (L4)	1.84	1.80
K% (L4)	11.4%	13.6%
BB% (L4)	4.5%	9.1%
IP/gm (L4)	4.75	5.00
L4 window	08/16→09/02 (4 st)	09/03→09/03 (1 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	88 (+2)	98 (+0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.37 (+0.10)	6.24 (+1.05)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.73	-2.15

away arsenal — TEX

RV/100 -0.73

4-Seam Fastball—-1.90xwOBA 0.394
Changeup—+1.20xwOBA 0.260
Slider—-0.60xwOBA 0.364

home arsenal — SEA

RV/100 -2.15

4-Seam Fastball—-2.80xwOBA 0.340
Slider—+1.00xwOBA 0.207
Changeup—-5.40xwOBA 0.290

away · TEX vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.748

Σ match

2.500

Σ FRV

+5.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Ezequiel Duran	0.306	0.278	+14.4
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.354	0.328	-0.4
3	2B	Justin Foscue	0.333	0.289	+2.3
4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.350	0.314	-5.2
5	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.316	0.280	+3.0
6	1B	Jake Burger	0.316	0.303	+4.8
7	DH	Logan O'Hoppe	0.268	0.256	-14.2
8	C	Elias Díaz	0.275	0.239	+0.6
9	3B	Cody Freeman	0.230	0.212	+0.6

home · SEA vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.893

Σ match

3.297

Σ FRV

-26.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.324	0.388	-7.5
2	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.348	0.381	-6.3
3	DH	Dominic Canzone	0.353	0.425	+0.3
4	C	Cal Raleigh	0.315	0.338	-3.0
5	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.334	0.396	-0.4
6	1B	Josh Naylor	0.315	0.362	+2.6
7	RF	Taylor Ward	0.333	0.379	-1.1
8	2B	Cole Young	0.315	0.338	-2.8
9	3B	Weston Wilson	0.256	0.291	-8.4

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Elias Díaz

FRV+0.6
framing-0.3
blocking+0.2
throwing+0.7

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-3.0
framing-3.3
blocking+2.5
throwing-2.3

TEX · Cody Bradford

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs ATH · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	88
Location+	—	—	111
Pitching+	—	—	92
botOvr	—	—	57
SIERA	—	—	5.37

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SEA · Kade Anderson

Last outing 2026-09-03 vs ATH · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 1
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	121
Pitching+	—	—	120
botOvr	—	—	60
SIERA	—	—	6.24

Last 1 starts: 2026-09-03 → 2026-09-03. 0/1 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-03; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.36–0.50]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Robert Garcia (5.40)

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.38–0.48]

0.100 R/PA · 0.142 R/out · worst: Hoby Milner (4.50)

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.64	29.7	8.5	1.28	28/3/26	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	SU	3.37	17.2	5.9	1.12	6/17/9	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	MR	4.01	26.1	14.1	0.85	0/15/7	stable
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	2.80	20.4	6.7	0.95	4/12/11	stable
Robert Garcia	MR	SU	3.86	18.9	18.9	0.89	0/2/1	stable
Adam Macko	MR	MR	4.04	22.9	9.2	1.04	0/5/2	stable
Robby Ahlstrom	MR	MR	5.15	20.5	7.3	0.82	0/6/3	stable
Trevor Williams	unknown	MR	3.98	27.5	8.8	—	0/1/0	—
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	LR	4.95	19.7	6.1	—	0/0/0	—

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	2.86	38.2	9.2	0.93	25/0/29	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	3.99	18.1	6.8	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	4.08	21.6	8.6	0.82	1/18/5	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.48	23.3	8.0	0.94	0/26/2	stable
Hoby Milner	SETUP	MR	4.64	13.1	5.6	0.94	1/6/7	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	MR	5.01	25.2	13.3	0.89	12/6/18	stable
Cooper Criswell	MR	LR	3.67	18.7	7.2	1.18	1/3/12	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	MR	4.10	26.9	8.1	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	3.27	23.3	4.7	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 TEX · 3 SEA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TEX

2 R

7H · 2HR · 3BB · 9K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.278 · SLGe 0.394 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 3 ER · 4 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

SEA

3 R

6H · 0HR · 3BB · 4K · 8LOB

OBPe 0.273 · SLGe 0.300 · K% 12.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

TEX · standout lines

big nights

Corey Seager (SS) · 2-4 | HR, K, RBIHR
Jake Burger (1B) · 1-3 | HR, BB, KHR

tough nights

Ezequiel Duran (3B) · 0-40-for-4
Wyatt Langford (LF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K

SEA · standout lines

tough nights

Dominic Canzone (DH) · 0-40-for-4