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today's slate

TOR @ ATH

Tuesday · September 8, 2026·full·gamePk 824957free Saturday

refreshed 416h 48m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Sutter Health Park

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

88°F

humidity 22%

wind

4 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

clear

park

ATH

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

-0.06 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	José SorianoRHP · TOR	Jack PerkinsRHP · ATH
xERA 2026	4.47	4.03
xwOBA 2026	0.325	0.310
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.029	0.049
xERA 2025	4.04	3.64
xwOBA 2025	0.312	0.297
Outs/TB 25-26	2.37	1.89
FIP 25-26	3.76	4.64
kwERA 25-26	4.05	3.69
K% 25-26	22.0%	24.9%
BB% 25-26	10.7%	10.6%
IP 25+26 combined	325.0	137.0
ERA actual 2026	3.52	6.50
ERA (L4)	5.06	11.02
WHIP (L4)	1.59	2.45
K% (L4)	15.6%	23.6%
BB% (L4)	8.3%	11.2%
IP/gm (L4)	5.33	4.08
L4 window	08/12→09/03 (4 st)	08/01→09/03 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	98 (+0)	91 (−8)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.15 (−0.00)	4.86 (+0.95)
Arsenal RV/100	0.61	-0.87

away arsenal — TOR

RV/100 0.61

Sinker—+0.50xwOBA 0.367
Curveball—+1.30xwOBA 0.271
4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.381
Split-Finger—+1.00xwOBA 0.258
Slider—+0.20xwOBA 0.270

home arsenal — ATH

RV/100 -0.87

4-Seam Fastball—-2.40xwOBA 0.387
Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.274
Changeup—-0.10xwOBA 0.215
Cutter—-0.40xwOBA 0.310
Sinker—-7.40xwOBA 0.393
Slider—+1.80xwOBA 0.261

away · TOR vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.692

Σ match

2.637

Σ FRV

+21.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Brett Bateman	0.299	0.302	+3.0
2	RF	Nathan Lukes	0.290	0.286	+6.3
3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.332	0.320	+6.2
4	C	Alejandro Kirk	0.304	0.297	+9.8
5	LF	Josh Smith	0.284	0.284	-3.7
6	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0.323	0.321	-2.2
7	SS	Andrés Giménez	0.272	0.262	+14.7
8	DH	Jesús Sánchez	0.324	0.316	-8.9
9	2B	Ernie Clement	0.264	0.249	-3.5

home · ATH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.721

Σ match

2.828

Σ FRV

-27.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Henry Bolte	0.317	0.327	+4.7
2	1B	Jeff McNeil	0.305	0.310	-2.0
3	3B	Zack Gelof	0.312	0.316	-1.0
4	RF	Lawrence Butler	0.319	0.309	-11.0
5	LF	Carlos Cortes	0.306	0.306	-5.4
6	DH	Tommy White	0.298	0.310	-2.5
7	2B	Donovan Walton	0.332	0.353	-5.9
8	SS	Alika Williams	0.241	0.271	+1.9
9	C	Jonah Heim	0.291	0.325	-5.9

defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)

Alejandro Kirk

FRV+9.8
framing+6.9
blocking+3.5
throwing-0.6

defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)

Jonah Heim

FRV-5.9
framing-1.4
blocking-2.1
throwing-1.4

TOR · José Soriano

Last outing 2026-09-03 vs CLE · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	102
Pitching+	—	—	103
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	4.15

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-09-03. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-03; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATH · Jack Perkins

Last outing 2026-09-03 vs SEA · 3.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	91
Location+	—	—	90
Pitching+	—	—	83
botOvr	—	—	45
SIERA	—	—	4.86

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-09-03. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TOR · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.36–0.53]

0.105 R/PA · 0.149 R/out · worst: Ricky Tiedemann (5.40)

ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.37–0.51]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Geoff Hartlieb (5.25)

TOR

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Louis Varland	CLOSER	CL	1.90	31.0	7.5	1.11	33/5/31	stable
Paul Sewald	CLOSER	MR	5.25	25.8	6.2	0.91	24/2/33	stable
Tyler Rogers	SETUP	SU	3.24	13.4	7.8	0.97	4/31/6	stable
Mason Fluharty	OPENER	MR	3.70	25.6	10.7	0.76	1/15/5	stable
Braydon Fisher	OPENER	SU	4.20	23.8	13.3	1.05	1/12/7	stable
Spencer Miles	SWING	MR	2.80	22.7	6.1	2.37	1/4/6	ramping up
Joe Mantiply	MR	MR	3.27	22.5	5.6	1.04	0/0/4	ramping down
Brendon Little	MOP_UP	MR	5.37	33.3	18.9	0.95	0/3/2	ramping up
Ricky Tiedemann	unknown	MR	4.70	20.0	20.0	—	0/0/0	—
Michael Lorenzen	SP	LR	5.30	14.6	8.5	4.62	1/0/0	ramping up

ATH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Luis Medina	SETUP	SU	3.72	28.7	12.2	1.38	0/11/10	stable
Hogan Harris	SETUP	CL	4.00	29.4	13.8	0.93	15/12/13	stable
Brady Basso	MR	MR	3.27	16.6	3.4	1.22	0/3/0	ramping up
Geoff Hartlieb	MR	MR	4.39	12.3	11.1	2.13	0/2/3	ramping down
Seth Johnson	MR	MR	4.52	26.8	15.2	1.13	0/0/4	stable
Elvis Alvarado	MR	CL	4.56	28.2	11.8	1.08	5/9/11	stable
Chris Roycroft	MR	MR	6.85	14.3	9.5	1.28	1/1/6	ramping up
Yunior Tur	MR	MR	9.71	21.3	12.8	2.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Scott Blewett	unknown	MR	2.10	22.7	7.3	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 TOR · 2 ATH

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TOR

4 R

11H · 2HR · 1BB · 6K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.333 · SLGe 0.486 · K% 16.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 K · relief 2.0 IP · 2 arms

ATH

2 R

6H · 2HR · 1BB · 6K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.212 · SLGe 0.375 · K% 18.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 6 K · relief 4.0 IP · 3 arms

TOR · standout lines

big nights

Josh Smith (LF) · 2-4 | HR, K, RBIHR
Kazuma Okamoto (3B) · 2-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Ernie Clement (2B) · 0-40-for-4

ATH · standout lines

big nights

Carlos Cortes (LF) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR
Donovan Walton (2B) · 2-3 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Zack Gelof (3B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Lawrence Butler (RF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Tommy White (DH) · 0-4 | K0-for-4