Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

TB @ ATL

Tuesday · September 8, 2026·full·gamePk 824875free Saturday

refreshed 419h 25m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Truist Park

gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

86°F

humidity 44%

wind

6 mph

in from LF

precip

clear

park

ATL

open · HP→CF 63°

wind impact on total

-0.15 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.15 R/G vs neutral. _Truist's open bowl + foul-territory small footprint — wind out to LF plays significantly_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Freddy PeraltaRHP · TB	AJ Smith-ShawverRHP · ATL
xERA 2026	3.89	4.32
xwOBA 2026	0.305	0.320
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.031	0.033
xERA 2025	3.43	6.27
xwOBA 2025	0.289	0.378
Outs/TB 25-26	2.17	1.97
FIP 25-26	4.02	4.13
kwERA 25-26	3.42	4.30
K% 25-26	25.3%	20.7%
BB% 25-26	8.8%	11.6%
IP 25+26 combined	323.7	62.0
ERA actual 2026	4.96	7.13
ERA (L4)	2.38	8.10
WHIP (L4)	0.71	1.88
K% (L4)	21.4%	16.9%
BB% (L4)	4.8%	13.8%
IP/gm (L4)	5.67	4.44
L4 window	08/10→09/01 (4 st)	08/19→09/01 (3 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	95 (−0)	101 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.10 (−0.12)	5.67 (+0.37)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.26	0.71

away arsenal — TB

RV/100 -0.26

4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.341
Changeup—+0.00xwOBA 0.271
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.237
Sweeper—-0.30xwOBA 0.235
Slider—-0.50xwOBA 0.450

home arsenal — ATL

RV/100 0.71

4-Seam Fastball—+1.70xwOBA 0.290
Split-Finger—-0.40xwOBA 0.254

away · TB vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.830

Σ match

2.515

Σ FRV

+4.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Yandy Díaz	0.358	0.302	—
2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	0.350	0.285	-0.9
3	3B	Junior Caminero	0.362	0.344	-8.7
4	C	Liam Hicks	0.316	0.267	+1.5
5	LF	Chandler Simpson	0.261	0.233	+3.3
6	CF	Jonny DeLuca	0.268	0.254	+8.4
7	RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	0.309	0.272	+6.9
8	2B	Richie Palacios	0.304	0.267	-4.9
9	SS	Jorge Mateo	0.302	0.290	-1.0

home · ATL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.877

Σ match

2.811

Σ FRV

+11.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Michael Harris II	0.341	0.341	+10.7
2	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.363	0.328	-3.9
3	1B	Matt Olson	0.353	0.338	+7.6
4	DH	Drake Baldwin	0.363	0.367	-0.5
5	SS	Mauricio Dubón	0.302	0.280	+4.6
6	2B	Ozzie Albies	0.283	0.283	-2.7
7	3B	Austin Riley	0.300	0.292	-1.4
8	LF	Mike Yastrzemski	0.309	0.307	-1.5
9	C	Sean Murphy	0.263	0.276	-0.8

defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)

Liam Hicks

FRV+1.5
framing-0.1
blocking-0.3
throwing+1.1

defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)

Sean Murphy

FRV-0.8
framing-1.0
blocking+0.6
throwing-0.4

TB · Freddy Peralta

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs NYM · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	95
Location+	—	—	116
Pitching+	—	—	112
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	4.10

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATL · AJ Smith-Shawver

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs WSH · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	101
Location+	—	—	97
Pitching+	—	—	99
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	5.67

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TB · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.29–0.50]

0.092 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Alex Cook (5.40)

ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.35R / inningband [0.26–0.44]

0.082 R/PA · 0.116 R/out · worst: Elieser Hernández (4.78)

TB

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Bryan Baker	CLOSER	CL	3.05	27.6	9.2	0.96	39/2/28	stable
Kevin Kelly	SETUP	SU	3.30	21.3	4.4	1.10	4/30/9	stable
Tyler Wells	SETUP	SU	3.42	25.6	6.3	1.26	6/15/13	stable
Casey Legumina	OPENER	MR	3.54	17.8	6.2	1.25	0/7/7	stable
Cole Sulser	OPENER	MR	3.89	24.1	7.4	1.11	2/11/9	stable
Steven Matz	SWING	LR	5.18	17.2	7.4	3.53	1/1/1	ramping down
Cam Booser	MR	MR	3.23	29.5	4.5	1.11	0/10/5	stable
Ty Johnson	unknown	MR	2.09	50.0	25.0	—	0/0/0	—
Alex Cook	unknown	MR	7.18	11.8	11.8	—	0/0/0	—

ATL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Raisel Iglesias	CLOSER	CL	3.20	25.7	7.5	1.04	31/0/29	stable
Dylan Lee	SETUP	SU	2.02	31.4	6.3	0.97	0/30/1	stable
Didier Fuentes	SETUP	SU	2.48	31.8	7.2	1.20	3/16/4	ramping down
Dylan Dodd	SETUP	MR	3.79	26.6	7.9	1.18	1/14/4	ramping down
Brent Suter	OPENER	MR	3.57	20.6	7.1	1.54	0/3/13	stable
Victor Mederos	MR	MR	2.95	23.3	9.2	1.87	1/1/4	ramping up
Ray Kerr	unknown	MR	4.09	15.8	2.6	—	0/1/0	—
Elieser Hernández	unknown	MR	4.64	17.9	12.8	—	1/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 TB · 1 ATL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TB

7 R

11H · 4HR · 4BB · 9K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.378 · SLGe 0.641 · K% 20.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 3 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

ATL

1 R

5H · 0HR · 1BB · 3K · 7LOB

OBPe 0.182 · SLGe 0.156 · K% 9.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 9 K · relief 5.7 IP · 3 arms

TB · standout lines

big nights

Yandy Díaz (DH) · 2-5 | HR, 2B, KHR
Junior Caminero (3B) · 2-3 | HR, BB, HBPHR
Liam Hicks (C) · 1-3 | HR, BB, HBPHR
Richie Palacios (2B) · 1-4 | HR, BB, 2 KHR

tough nights

Jonny DeLuca (CF) · 0-5 | K0-for-5

ATL · standout lines

tough nights

Michael Harris II (CF) · 0-40-for-4