Baseball Daily

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today's slate

CLE @ BAL

Tuesday · September 8, 2026·full·gamePk 824792free Saturday

refreshed 419h 24m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oriole Park at Camden Yards

gametime 6:35 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

82°F

humidity 52%

wind

6 mph

in from LF

precip

overcast

park

BAL

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

-0.09 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Tanner BibeeRHP · CLE	Brandon YoungRHP · BAL
xERA 2026	4.29	4.32
xwOBA 2026	0.319	0.320
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.012	-0.003
xERA 2025	3.64	4.27
xwOBA 2025	0.297	0.320
Outs/TB 25-26	1.96	1.79
FIP 25-26	4.44	4.68
kwERA 25-26	3.83	4.15
K% 25-26	20.3%	18.7%
BB% 25-26	7.3%	8.3%
IP 25+26 combined	348.7	194.7
ERA actual 2026	4.06	3.42
ERA (L4)	4.50	3.86
WHIP (L4)	1.55	1.29
K% (L4)	18.4%	17.7%
BB% (L4)	11.2%	7.3%
IP/gm (L4)	5.50	5.83
L4 window	08/16→09/03 (4 st)	08/17→09/03 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	96 (−7)	100 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.03 (+0.58)	5.15 (+0.62)
Arsenal RV/100	0.22	0.02

away arsenal — CLE

RV/100 0.22

Cutter—+0.80xwOBA 0.327
4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.328
Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.360
Changeup—-0.50xwOBA 0.236
Curveball—-0.40xwOBA 0.309
Sweeper—-0.30xwOBA 0.319

home arsenal — BAL

RV/100 0.02

4-Seam Fastball—+1.40xwOBA 0.331
Split-Finger—-1.40xwOBA 0.297
Slider—-0.50xwOBA 0.268
Sinker—-0.80xwOBA 0.370
Curveball—-0.80xwOBA 0.323

away · CLE vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.796

Σ match

2.896

Σ FRV

+17.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Steven Kwan	0.322	0.326	+6.8
2	2B	Travis Bazzana	0.299	0.308	-2.3
3	3B	José Ramírez	0.333	0.351	+1.9
4	DH	Jo Adell	0.324	0.333	-8.5
5	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0.336	0.348	-2.1
6	RF	Angel Martínez	0.302	0.316	+2.9
7	C	Patrick Bailey	0.307	0.321	+5.2
8	CF	Petey Halpin	0.282	0.296	+2.6
9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	0.291	0.297	+10.6

home · BAL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.896

Σ match

3.007

Σ FRV

-16.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Jackson Holliday	0.301	0.307	-4.1
2	1B	Pete Alonso	0.392	0.397	-2.9
3	SS	Gunnar Henderson	0.315	0.330	+1.0
4	DH	Coby Mayo	0.322	0.341	-2.0
5	C	Samuel Basallo	0.323	0.336	-1.8
6	LF	Dylan Beavers	0.301	0.306	-6.9
7	3B	Blaze Alexander	0.351	0.352	-4.8
8	CF	Colton Cowser	0.319	0.357	+7.2
9	RF	Leody Taveras	0.272	0.282	-1.8

defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)

Patrick Bailey

FRV+5.2
framing+4.1
blocking-1.8
throwing+2.9

defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)

Samuel Basallo

FRV-1.8
framing-4.4
blocking+1.0
throwing+2.1

CLE · Tanner Bibee

Last outing 2026-09-03 vs TOR · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	96
Location+	—	—	97
Pitching+	—	—	93
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	5.03

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-03. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-03; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

BAL · Brandon Young

Last outing 2026-09-03 vs BOS · 6.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	106
Pitching+	—	—	105
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	5.15

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-03. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.31–0.50]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.25)

BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.34–0.43]

0.091 R/PA · 0.129 R/out · worst: Luis De León (4.40)

CLE

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Cade Smith	CLOSER	CL	2.32	35.6	8.0	1.05	35/0/37	stable
Erik Sabrowski	SETUP	SU	2.76	37.6	14.6	0.78	1/23/2	stable
Matt Festa	SETUP	MR	3.42	24.7	6.8	0.97	1/7/13	stable
Hunter Gaddis	SETUP	SU	3.78	22.3	9.3	0.86	1/28/2	stable
Tim Herrin	SETUP	MR	4.40	21.6	12.0	0.79	0/15/5	stable
Daniel Espino	MR	MR	2.09	43.6	10.3	1.00	0/0/1	stable
Franco Aleman	MR	MR	3.81	27.9	11.6	1.11	0/3/0	stable
Craig Yoho	MR	MR	4.73	24.8	9.7	1.33	0/1/5	stable
Slade Cecconi	SP	LR	4.65	18.2	7.3	5.21	0/0/0	ramping up

BAL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yennier Cano	SETUP	SU	2.71	22.3	5.4	0.74	3/13/6	stable
Grant Wolfram	SETUP	MR	2.84	26.3	7.1	0.80	1/12/3	stable
Anthony Nunez	SETUP	MR	3.72	25.8	11.1	1.12	3/7/7	stable
Andrew Kittredge	SETUP	CL	3.92	18.4	5.5	0.87	9/9/11	stable
Rico Garcia	SETUP	CL	4.06	25.9	8.4	0.93	6/18/16	stable
Alex Hoppe	MR	MR	3.04	24.8	9.7	1.14	1/5/13	stable
Cam Sanders	MR	MR	3.36	29.5	15.2	1.00	3/1/5	stable
Josh Walker	MR	MR	3.40	24.2	8.4	1.20	1/3/3	ramping down
Luis De León	unknown	MR	7.59	16.7	8.3	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

9 CLE · 5 BAL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CLE

9 R

12H · 1HR · 5BB · 6K · 23LOB

OBPe 0.400 · SLGe 0.486 · K% 13.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 8 K · relief 4.7 IP · 5 arms

BAL

5 R

6H · 1HR · 3BB · 8K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.270 · SLGe 0.364 · K% 21.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 6 K · relief 5.3 IP · 6 arms

CLE · standout lines

big nights

Travis Bazzana (2B) · 1-4 | HR, BB, KHR
Angel Martínez (RF) · 2-5 | 3B, 2 K, 2 R4 TB

tough nights

Nathaniel Lowe (1B) · 0-3 | 2 BB, 2 K, R0-for-3 · 2 K

BAL · standout lines

big nights

Pete Alonso (1B) · 2-4 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Samuel Basallo (C) · 0-4 | 2 K, RBI0-for-4 · 2 K
Dylan Beavers (LF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Colton Cowser (CF) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K