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today's slate

LAA @ BOS

Tuesday · September 8, 2026·full·gamePk 824714free Saturday

refreshed 419h 24m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Fenway Park

gametime 6:45 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

70°F

humidity 64%

wind

2 mph

in from CF

precip

mostly clear

park

BOS

open · HP→CF 46°

wind impact on total

-0.04 R/Gnone in

In wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Reid DetmersLHP · LAA	Patrick SandovalLHP · BOS
xERA 2026	3.25	5.29
xwOBA 2026	0.280	0.350
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.007	0.016
xERA 2025	3.61	—
xwOBA 2025	0.296	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.34	1.65
FIP 25-26	3.10	4.23
kwERA 25-26	2.87	4.08
K% 25-26	28.6%	22.0%
BB% 25-26	7.5%	11.0%
IP 25+26 combined	225.7	49.0
ERA actual 2026	3.44	4.41
ERA (L4)	1.00	6.16
WHIP (L4)	0.85	1.79
K% (L4)	27.8%	23.1%
BB% (L4)	4.1%	13.2%
IP/gm (L4)	6.75	4.75
L4 window	08/10→09/02 (4 st)	08/16→09/02 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	100 (−4)	101 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.34 (+0.98)	4.30 (−0.23)
Arsenal RV/100	0.85	-1.26

away arsenal — LAA

RV/100 0.85

4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.315
Slider—+2.00xwOBA 0.218
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.307
Changeup—-0.40xwOBA 0.312

home arsenal — BOS

RV/100 -1.26

Changeup—+1.70xwOBA 0.175
Slider—-2.20xwOBA 0.350
4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.407
Sinker—-3.30xwOBA 0.520
Sweeper—-5.10xwOBA 0.326

away · LAA vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.525

Σ match

2.975

Σ FRV

-12.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.304	0.365	-1.8
2	CF	Mike Trout	0.374	0.415	-2.8
3	RF	Jose Siri	0.305	0.337	+1.2
4	1B	Vaughn Grissom	0.313	0.350	-4.4
5	DH	Moisés Ballesteros	0.292	0.320	-1.2
6	2B	Christian Moore	0.244	0.310	-1.3
7	LF	Kyren Paris	0.175	0.270	+0.0
8	3B	Denzer Guzman	0.265	0.298	+0.3
9	C	Travis d'Arnaud	0.253	0.308	-2.5

home · BOS vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.764

Σ match

2.456

Σ FRV

-4.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Roman Anthony	0.359	0.338	+0.5
2	DH	Jahmai Jones	0.344	0.298	-1.6
3	RF	Wilyer Abreu	0.346	0.297	+4.6
4	SS	Trevor Story	0.248	0.217	-1.5
5	1B	Nick Sogard	0.321	0.277	+2.1
6	3B	Caleb Durbin	0.290	0.261	+4.7
7	2B	Andruw Monasterio	0.297	0.265	-9.9
8	CF	Eli White	0.273	0.245	+4.6
9	C	Connor Wong	0.286	0.259	-8.3

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Travis d'Arnaud

FRV-2.5
framing-2.4
blocking-0.0
throwing-0.1

defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)

Connor Wong

FRV-8.3
framing-7.3
blocking+0.6
throwing-1.6

LAA · Reid Detmers

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs NYY · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	103
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	4.34

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

BOS · Patrick Sandoval

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs SEA · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	101
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	108
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	4.30

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.30–0.46]

0.090 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.18)

BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.36R / inningband [0.29–0.43]

0.084 R/PA · 0.119 R/out · worst: Alec Gamboa (4.14)

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Samy Natera Jr.	MR	SU	1.87	38.8	10.3	1.16	3/4/3	stable
Tayler Saucedo	MR	MR	2.39	28.6	4.8	0.56	0/5/0	stable
José Fermin	MR	MR	3.91	27.5	10.4	1.11	1/7/7	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	4.14	19.4	7.8	1.61	2/4/21	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	LR	4.82	24.7	11.4	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	2.31	33.3	12.8	—	3/2/0	—
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	2.73	19.6	2.0	—	0/2/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	4.02	25.4	15.3	—	0/4/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	MR	5.50	28.3	8.3	—	0/1/0	—

BOS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Aroldis Chapman	CLOSER	CL	2.51	32.3	10.0	0.96	33/0/27	stable
Garrett Whitlock	SETUP	SU	2.09	30.0	3.9	0.97	3/24/7	stable
Erik Miller	SETUP	SU	2.89	35.2	13.8	0.86	4/13/7	stable
Greg Weissert	SETUP	MR	4.14	24.0	8.0	0.96	1/6/4	stable
Jovani Morán	OPENER	MR	4.48	26.1	12.0	1.53	0/5/6	ramping down
Alec Gamboa	MR	MR	3.16	18.1	7.6	1.60	1/1/5	ramping up
Wyatt Olds	unknown	MR	3.62	33.3	8.3	—	0/0/0	—
Raymond Burgos	unknown	MR	3.72	18.5	1.9	—	1/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 LAA · 1 BOS

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

LAA

6 R

15H · 1HR · 2BB · 11K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.436 · SLGe 0.622 · K% 28.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 13 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms

BOS

1 R

4H · 0HR · 3BB · 13K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.229 · SLGe 0.161 · K% 37.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 11 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

LAA · standout lines

big nights

Zach Neto (SS) · 4-5 | HR, 2B, 2 RBIHR · 4 H · 8 TB
Travis d'Arnaud (C) · 2-4 | 2 2B, 2 K, 2 R4 TB

BOS · standout lines

tough nights

Roman Anthony (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Jahmai Jones (DH) · 0-3 | HBP, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Andruw Monasterio (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4