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today's slate

PIT @ CWS

Tuesday · September 8, 2026·full·gamePk 824551free Saturday

refreshed 419h 26m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Rate Field

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

78°F

humidity 49%

wind

5 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

CWS

open · HP→CF 38°

wind impact on total

+0.14 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.14 R/G vs neutral. _Open bowl on south side; Chicago summer wind off the lake can swirl_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Bubba ChandlerRHP · PIT	Sean BurkeRHP · CWS
xERA 2026	4.12	3.65
xwOBA 2026	0.313	0.296
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.005	-0.001
xERA 2025	3.66	4.93
xwOBA 2025	0.298	0.341
Outs/TB 25-26	2.26	1.98
FIP 25-26	3.87	4.23
kwERA 25-26	4.09	3.60
K% 25-26	21.3%	24.4%
BB% 25-26	10.4%	9.5%
IP 25+26 combined	167.3	289.0
ERA actual 2026	4.30	3.20
ERA (L4)	2.49	3.15
WHIP (L4)	1.11	1.30
K% (L4)	19.8%	22.4%
BB% (L4)	9.3%	17.6%
IP/gm (L4)	5.42	5.00
L4 window	08/08→09/02 (4 st)	08/11→09/01 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	97 (−6)	101 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.97 (−0.86)	6.50 (+2.79)
Arsenal RV/100	0.01	0.49

away arsenal — PIT

RV/100 0.01

4-Seam Fastball—-0.20xwOBA 0.342
Slider—+0.00xwOBA 0.294
Changeup—+0.40xwOBA 0.283
Sinker—+1.50xwOBA 0.315
Sweeper—+0.30xwOBA 0.217
Curveball—-1.90xwOBA 0.289

home arsenal — CWS

RV/100 0.49

4-Seam Fastball—+1.30xwOBA 0.267
Curveball—-0.50xwOBA 0.265
Slider—+0.00xwOBA 0.319
Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.357
Cutter—+1.20xwOBA 0.361

away · PIT vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.900

Σ match

2.817

Σ FRV

-0.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Konnor Griffin	0.297	0.288	-4.0
2	2B	Brandon Lowe	0.323	0.320	+10.8
3	DH	Bryan Reynolds	0.360	0.348	-3.5
4	CF	Oneil Cruz	0.350	0.346	+1.8
5	RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.328	0.326	-2.5
6	1B	Spencer Horwitz	0.311	0.299	-3.7
7	C	Rafael Flores Jr.	0.339	0.315	-0.1
8	3B	Jacob Gonzalez	0.309	0.300	-2.0
9	LF	Jake Mangum	0.283	0.274	+2.5

home · CWS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.928

Σ match

2.939

Σ FRV

+10.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Sam Antonacci	0.341	0.343	-8.4
2	3B	Miguel Vargas	0.385	0.380	-4.8
3	1B	Munetaka Murakami	0.347	0.363	-2.3
4	DH	Andrew Benintendi	0.311	0.311	-1.6
5	SS	Colson Montgomery	0.306	0.282	+8.7
6	RF	Braden Montgomery	0.329	0.361	+0.8
7	CF	Tristan Peters	0.321	0.324	+10.1
8	2B	Chase Meidroth	0.293	0.299	+9.6
9	C	Kyle Teel	0.295	0.276	-1.3

defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)

Rafael Flores Jr.

FRV-0.1
framing+0.5
blocking-0.2
throwing-1.0

defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)

Kyle Teel

FRV-1.3
framing-1.1
blocking-1.0
throwing+0.8

PIT · Bubba Chandler

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs SF · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	102
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	3.97

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CWS · Sean Burke

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs HOU · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	101
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	104
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	6.50

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

PIT · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.34–0.47]

0.096 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Khristian Curtis (5.09)

CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.37–0.50]

0.102 R/PA · 0.145 R/out · worst: Tyler Schweitzer (4.96)

PIT

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Gregory Soto	CLOSER	SU	3.27	27.7	9.6	0.99	14/11/21	stable
Luke Weaver	SETUP	SU	2.68	26.7	7.1	1.05	1/18/4	stable
Yohan Ramírez	SETUP	MR	3.57	27.1	13.0	1.28	2/8/8	stable
Isaac Mattson	SETUP	MR	3.71	20.5	10.2	0.96	0/8/7	stable
Khristian Curtis	BULK	LR	3.45	17.9	15.4	5.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Mason Montgomery	OPENER	CL	2.30	37.9	9.5	0.97	10/9/7	stable
Lake Bachar	OPENER	MR	4.63	25.2	10.1	1.53	2/1/10	stable
Wilber Dotel	MR	MR	3.15	25.4	10.8	2.13	0/3/1	stable
Camilo Doval	MOP_UP	MR	4.46	23.2	12.2	0.90	1/7/10	stable

CWS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sean Newcomb	SETUP	SU	2.88	22.4	8.5	1.51	4/11/6	ramping up
Grant Taylor	OPENER	CL	2.62	32.4	8.7	1.33	8/10/11	stable
Bryan Hudson	OPENER	CL	3.10	22.5	6.7	0.98	7/9/8	stable
Jordan Hicks	MR	MR	3.83	28.2	14.9	0.91	1/8/6	stable
Tyler Davis	MR	MR	3.83	22.0	13.6	1.10	1/0/6	stable
José Urquidy	MR	LR	4.01	17.5	5.3	1.27	1/0/4	ramping down
Trevor Richards	MR	MR	4.14	22.1	7.8	1.46	1/1/16	stable
Tyler Schweitzer	MR	MR	4.34	12.5	8.8	1.86	1/2/6	ramping up
Hagen Smith	unknown	MR	2.90	37.1	16.1	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

9 PIT · 3 CWS

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

PIT

9 R

18H · 1HR · 3BB · 3K · 21LOB

OBPe 0.457 · SLGe 0.643 · K% 6.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 10 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

CWS

3 R

6H · 1HR · 0BB · 10K · 6LOB

OBPe 0.188 · SLGe 0.344 · K% 31.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 9 ER · 3 K · relief 7.7 IP · 4 arms

PIT · standout lines

big nights

Bryan Reynolds (DH) · 2-4 | 2 2B, K, 2 RBI4 TB
Oneil Cruz (CF) · 3-5 | 2B, K, 2 RBI3 H · 4 TB
Rafael Flores Jr. (C) · 3-5 | HR, RBI, RHR · 3 H

CWS · standout lines

big nights

Andrew Benintendi (DH) · 2-4 | 2 2B, 2 R4 TB
Kyle Teel (C) · 2-3 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Miguel Vargas (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Munetaka Murakami (1B) · 0-4 | 4 K0-for-4 · 4 K
Colson Montgomery (SS) · 0-4 | K, RBI0-for-4