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today's slate

MIN @ DET

Tuesday · September 8, 2026·full·gamePk 824228free Saturday

refreshed 419h 27m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Comerica Park

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

79°F

humidity 50%

wind

6 mph

in from LF

precip

overcast

park

DET

open · HP→CF 150°

wind impact on total

-0.13 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.13 R/G vs neutral. _Comerica's huge CF + upper-deck overhang creates dead-air zone in deep CF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Dean KremerRHP · MIN	Drew AndersonRHP · DET
xERA 2026	4.60	3.89
xwOBA 2026	0.329	0.305
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.018	0.014
xERA 2025	3.88	—
xwOBA 2025	0.306	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.83	1.99
FIP 25-26	4.28	4.14
kwERA 25-26	3.71	3.45
K% 25-26	21.0%	25.7%
BB% 25-26	7.0%	9.4%
IP 25+26 combined	238.3	91.7
ERA actual 2026	5.81	3.73
ERA (L4)	7.23	3.10
WHIP (L4)	1.66	1.28
K% (L4)	22.1%	21.8%
BB% (L4)	11.6%	11.5%
IP/gm (L4)	4.67	5.08
L4 window	08/16→09/02 (4 st)	08/16→09/02 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	90 (−1)	93 (−7)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.88 (+0.81)	4.74 (+1.16)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.57	-0.14

away arsenal — MIN

RV/100 -0.57

4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.393
Split-Finger—-0.40xwOBA 0.240
Cutter—+0.70xwOBA 0.289
Sinker—-2.30xwOBA 0.468
Curveball—-1.10xwOBA 0.373

home arsenal — DET

RV/100 -0.14

4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.315
Changeup—-0.90xwOBA 0.281
Curveball—-0.20xwOBA 0.262
Slider—-5.30xwOBA 0.527

away · MIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.849

Σ match

2.665

Σ FRV

-23.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Luke Keaschall	0.316	0.283	-10.6
2	3B	Brooks Lee	0.277	0.245	-0.9
3	2B	Kody Clemens	0.338	0.326	-3.5
4	C	Ryan Jeffers	0.361	0.344	-3.5
5	DH	Josh Bell	0.331	0.323	-0.9
6	1B	Royce Lewis	0.313	0.267	-1.5
7	LF	Trevor Larnach	0.325	0.298	-2.2
8	SS	Kaelen Culpepper	0.314	0.288	-0.1
9	CF	Walker Jenkins	0.274	0.293	+0.0

home · DET vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.903

Σ match

3.194

Σ FRV

-2.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Kevin McGonigle	0.351	0.412	-0.2
2	2B	Gleyber Torres	0.325	0.353	+0.4
3	1B	Colt Keith	0.334	0.372	-1.1
4	DH	Riley Greene	0.372	0.420	-5.6
5	C	Eduardo Valencia	0.317	0.339	+0.9
6	LF	Brett Callahan	0.310	0.328	-1.1
7	CF	Max Clark	0.313	0.337	+2.4
8	3B	Hao-Yu Lee	0.299	0.334	-8.7
9	RF	Zach McKinstry	0.282	0.299	+10.2

defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Ryan Jeffers

FRV-3.5
framing-0.5
blocking+0.3
throwing-3.3

defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)

Eduardo Valencia

FRV+0.9
framing+0.4
blocking+0.5
throwing+0.1

MIN · Dean Kremer

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs DET · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	90
Location+	—	—	88
Pitching+	—	—	80
botOvr	—	—	43
SIERA	—	—	4.88

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

DET · Drew Anderson

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs MIN · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	93
Location+	—	—	102
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	4.74

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.48]

0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Kody Funderburk (4.50)

DET · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.35–0.57]

0.108 R/PA · 0.153 R/out · worst: Yilber Díaz (5.88)

MIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yoendrys Gómez	CLOSER	CL	4.52	21.3	12.5	1.12	21/6/26	ramping down
Jeff Hoffman	SETUP	SU	2.46	34.3	9.4	0.94	5/17/16	stable
Kody Funderburk	SETUP	MR	3.95	20.0	12.5	0.94	1/11/1	stable
Taylor Rogers	SETUP	MR	4.15	18.9	11.3	0.82	2/9/10	stable
Andrew Morris	OPENER	MR	3.24	20.9	8.4	1.31	4/20/6	ramping down
A.J. Minter	MR	SU	3.69	22.1	4.1	1.00	0/7/8	stable
Tommy Nance	MR	MR	3.81	25.6	8.8	1.04	0/6/4	stable
Travis Adams	MR	LR	4.16	25.9	10.2	1.46	2/1/6	stable

DET

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kenley Jansen	CLOSER	CL	4.83	27.0	13.5	0.89	18/1/22	stable
Tyler Kinley	SETUP	MR	5.19	22.9	11.9	0.87	1/13/9	stable
Kyle Finnegan	SETUP	SU	5.32	17.9	13.2	1.05	2/14/3	stable
Tyler Holton	OPENER	SU	4.09	18.9	6.0	1.06	2/14/8	stable
Drew Sommers	MR	MR	2.69	36.0	9.4	0.63	0/12/1	stable
Brant Hurter	MR	MR	3.72	17.8	11.9	1.21	0/1/4	ramping up
Jacob Waguespack	MR	MR	5.35	15.9	11.0	1.30	0/5/4	stable
Beau Brieske	MR	MR	5.40	22.2	9.3	1.17	0/1/6	stable
Yilber Díaz	MOP_UP	LR	12.09	16.0	20.0	0.67	0/0/0	insufficient data

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 MIN · 2 DET

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIN

3 R

5H · 1HR · 3BB · 5K · 7LOB

OBPe 0.242 · SLGe 0.379 · K% 15.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 7 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

DET

2 R

5H · 1HR · 2BB · 7K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.212 · SLGe 0.258 · K% 21.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K · relief 3.7 IP · 4 arms

MIN · standout lines

big nights

Kody Clemens (LF) · 1-3 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Royce Lewis (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Kaelen Culpepper (SS) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

DET · standout lines

big nights

Kevin McGonigle (SS) · 2-4 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Riley Greene (DH) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Hao-Yu Lee (3B) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K