Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

AZ @ KC

Tuesday · September 8, 2026·full·gamePk 824063free Saturday

refreshed 417h 48m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Kauffman Stadium

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

97°F

humidity 30%

wind

8 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

+0.25 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.25 R/G vs neutral. _Open exposed bowl on prairie — summer south winds blow OUT to RF, plays huge_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Corbin BurnesRHP · AZ	Michael WachaRHP · KC
xERA 2026	—	3.89
xwOBA 2026	—	0.305
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	—	-0.004
xERA 2025	3.85	4.16
xwOBA 2025	0.305	0.316
Outs/TB 25-26	2.33	2.02
FIP 25-26	3.94	3.87
kwERA 25-26	3.72	3.89
K% 25-26	23.8%	18.9%
BB% 25-26	9.8%	6.2%
IP 25+26 combined	64.3	349.3
ERA actual 2026	—	3.36
ERA (L4)	—	2.77
WHIP (L4)	—	0.85
K% (L4)	—	26.0%
BB% (L4)	—	3.0%
IP/gm (L4)	—	6.50
L4 window	—	08/17→09/03 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	100 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	3.31 (−0.90)
Arsenal RV/100	—	0.39

away arsenal — AZ

RV/100 —

No Savant arsenal data.

home arsenal — KC

RV/100 0.39

4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.330
Changeup—+1.80xwOBA 0.222
Cutter—-0.20xwOBA 0.346
Sinker—-0.30xwOBA 0.378
Curveball—-0.80xwOBA 0.309
Slider—-0.80xwOBA 0.301

away · AZ vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.886

Σ match

2.894

Σ FRV

+32.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Lars Nootbaar	0.344	0.337	+1.4
2	2B	Ketel Marte	0.347	0.348	+3.8
3	C	Gabriel Moreno	0.365	0.364	+8.2
4	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.328	0.320	+10.4
5	3B	Nolan Arenado	0.285	0.298	+2.8
6	CF	Tommy Troy	0.313	0.323	+0.8
7	RF	Tim Tawa	0.302	0.294	-1.2
8	1B	Ildemaro Vargas	0.299	0.300	+2.5
9	LF	Ryan Waldschmidt	0.303	0.310	+3.8

home · KC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.557

Σ match

—

Σ FRV

+18.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	C	Carter Jensen	0.305	—	+1.6
2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0.386	—	+16.7
3	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0.329	—	+0.4
4	DH	Salvador Perez	0.310	—	-9.1
5	2B	Michael Massey	0.303	—	+5.1
6	3B	Nick Loftin	0.295	—	-1.0
7	LF	Isaac Collins	0.296	—	+0.6
8	RF	Matthew Lugo	0.072	—	-0.0
9	CF	Kyle Isbel	0.261	—	+4.3

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

Gabriel Moreno

FRV+8.2
framing+4.6
blocking+1.6
throwing+2.0

defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carter Jensen

FRV+1.6
framing+2.3
blocking-2.7
throwing+2.0

AZ · Corbin Burnes: no recent outing on file.

KC · Michael Wacha

Last outing 2026-09-03 vs MIA · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	112
Pitching+	—	—	110
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	3.31

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-03. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-03; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.35–0.49]

0.099 R/PA · 0.140 R/out · worst: Blake Walston (5.40)

KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.40–0.55]

0.112 R/PA · 0.158 R/out · worst: Anthony Gose (6.03)

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	CL	2.28	32.3	6.1	0.83	5/16/6	stable
Juan Morillo	SETUP	CL	2.54	28.4	9.1	0.92	3/18/9	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	2.86	19.3	4.8	0.93	1/9/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	SU	3.37	25.3	6.6	0.93	3/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.74	15.9	4.8	1.00	0/13/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	MR	5.31	20.4	10.4	0.95	3/5/22	stable
Derek Law	unknown	MR	3.09	12.0	4.0	—	0/0/0	—
Blake Walston	unknown	LR	3.09	0.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Justin Martinez	unknown	MR	3.39	28.6	17.9	—	0/0/0	—

KC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Alex Lange	CLOSER	MR	4.73	22.6	11.1	1.03	10/3/20	stable
Connor Thomas	BULK	MR	6.97	14.9	9.5	3.67	0/2/0	insufficient data
Steven Cruz	OPENER	CL	5.06	25.9	8.5	1.06	6/5/7	stable
Jose Cuas	MR	MR	2.72	23.4	13.0	1.27	0/3/4	ramping down
Nolan Hoffman	MR	MR	3.66	13.2	10.5	1.56	0/0/2	insufficient data
Craig Kimbrel	MR	SU	4.07	21.1	10.8	1.03	1/2/15	stable
Easton McGee	MR	LR	6.57	19.1	10.6	1.00	0/0/2	insufficient data
Nate Pearson	unknown	MR	3.37	21.5	11.4	—	3/5/0	—
Anthony Gose	unknown	MR	3.65	0.0	5.3	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 AZ · 3 KC

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

AZ

5 R

9H · 1HR · 7BB · 5K · 24LOB

OBPe 0.333 · SLGe 0.378 · K% 10.4

Their pitching

11.0 IP · 2 ER · 8 K · relief 8.0 IP · 7 arms

KC

3 R

7H · 1HR · 7BB · 8K · 25LOB

OBPe 0.311 · SLGe 0.351 · K% 17.8

Their pitching

11.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K · relief 5.0 IP · 7 arms

AZ · standout lines

big nights

Tim Tawa (RF) · 3-5 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR · 3 H

tough nights

Ildemaro Vargas (1B) · 0-5 | R0-for-5
Ryan Waldschmidt (LF) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

KC · standout lines

big nights

John Rave (RF) · 1-3 | HR, 2 K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Carter Jensen (C) · 0-3 | 2 BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Bobby Witt Jr. (SS) · 0-4 | BB, SB0-for-4
Isaac Collins (LF) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4