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CIN @ LAD

Tuesday · September 8, 2026·full·gamePk 823901free Saturday

refreshed 417h 16m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Dodger Stadium

gametime 10:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

87°F

humidity 36%

wind

3 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

clear

park

LAD

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

-0.03 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Nick LodoloLHP · CIN	Tarik SkubalLHP · LAD
xERA 2026	6.51	2.99
xwOBA 2026	0.382	0.269
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.005	0.000
xERA 2025	3.51	2.71
xwOBA 2025	0.292	0.258
Outs/TB 25-26	1.88	2.48
FIP 25-26	4.43	2.46
kwERA 25-26	3.51	2.14
K% 25-26	22.1%	31.5%
BB% 25-26	6.3%	4.3%
IP 25+26 combined	241.7	327.7
ERA actual 2026	5.08	2.86
ERA (L4)	4.74	2.55
WHIP (L4)	1.32	1.22
K% (L4)	20.7%	30.4%
BB% (L4)	7.3%	3.9%
IP/gm (L4)	4.75	6.17
L4 window	08/11→09/01 (4 st)	08/16→09/03 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	107 (+1)	120 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.20 (−0.53)	2.56 (−0.21)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.93	1.03

away arsenal — CIN

RV/100 -0.93

4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.327
Sinker—-1.20xwOBA 0.481
Curveball—-0.80xwOBA 0.296
Changeup—-0.70xwOBA 0.364

home arsenal — LAD

RV/100 1.03

4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.290
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.231
Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.314
Slider—+1.80xwOBA 0.263
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.207

away · CIN vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.810

Σ match

2.484

Σ FRV

-8.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Dane Myers	0.314	0.273	-1.3
2	SS	Elly De La Cruz	0.368	0.347	+4.6
3	1B	Sal Stewart	0.351	0.305	-4.2
4	DH	Tyler Stephenson	0.332	0.303	-6.5
5	3B	Eugenio Suárez	0.290	0.255	-6.4
6	LF	JJ Bleday	0.345	0.309	-0.6
7	C	Jose Trevino	0.222	0.194	+1.6
8	2B	Matt McLain	0.304	0.253	+3.5
9	RF	Héctor Rodríguez	0.284	0.246	+0.5

home · LAD vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.920

Σ match

3.472

Σ FRV

+9.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Tommy Edman	0.315	0.365	+1.9
2	SS	Mookie Betts	0.330	0.397	+7.9
3	C	Will Smith	0.378	0.449	-0.5
4	DH	Freddie Freeman	0.371	0.424	+2.7
5	RF	Teoscar Hernández	0.329	0.428	-6.2
6	2B	Miguel Rojas	0.307	0.355	+1.4
7	LF	Alex Call	0.281	0.318	+0.8
8	3B	Max Muncy	0.351	0.419	+2.7
9	1B	Enrique Hernández	0.258	0.315	-1.0

defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Jose Trevino

FRV+1.6
framing+1.2
blocking+1.0
throwing-0.7

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Will Smith

FRV-0.5
framing-1.5
blocking+0.6
throwing+0.4

CIN · Nick Lodolo

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs SD · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	107
Location+	—	—	84
Pitching+	—	—	89
botOvr	—	—	48
SIERA	—	—	4.20

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAD · Tarik Skubal

Last outing 2026-09-03 vs STL · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	120
Location+	—	—	111
Pitching+	—	—	128
botOvr	—	—	65
SIERA	—	—	2.56

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-03. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-03; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.37–0.48]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.70)

LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.29–0.47]

0.090 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Seth Halvorsen (5.30)

CIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Emilio Pagán	CLOSER	CL	4.70	24.3	6.6	0.91	22/0/15	stable
Graham Ashcraft	SETUP	MR	3.52	29.6	15.7	1.04	1/11/5	stable
Brock Burke	SETUP	SU	3.85	24.2	13.3	0.95	2/18/10	stable
Pierce Johnson	SETUP	MR	4.45	19.8	9.3	0.88	1/8/8	stable
Tony Santillan	SETUP	MR	6.88	19.2	13.4	0.91	5/11/11	stable
Luis Mey	MR	MR	3.36	32.2	13.6	1.24	0/4/0	ramping down
Tejay Antone	MR	SU	3.90	24.6	7.2	1.00	1/9/6	stable
Julian Garcia	MR	MR	4.66	25.0	9.9	1.62	2/3/2	stable

LAD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tanner Scott	CLOSER	CL	2.23	31.2	5.4	0.94	21/12/21	stable
Edgardo Henriquez	SETUP	SU	2.52	29.8	10.5	1.05	2/9/5	stable
Alex Vesia	SETUP	MR	3.38	30.2	14.4	0.76	3/19/6	stable
Blake Treinen	SETUP	MR	3.51	25.0	10.6	0.79	1/6/5	stable
Jack Dreyer	MR	MR	3.40	29.4	8.7	1.01	2/11/9	stable
Brock Stewart	MR	MR	3.78	23.2	11.0	1.06	1/7/2	stable
Evan Phillips	MR	SU	4.15	27.9	5.8	1.00	1/6/3	stable
Seth Halvorsen	MOP_UP	LR	6.55	15.0	14.2	0.90	0/2/4	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 CIN · 3 LAD

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CIN

2 R

5H · 1HR · 3BB · 8K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.235 · SLGe 0.290 · K% 23.5

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 3 ER · 7 K · relief 3.3 IP · 4 arms

LAD

3 R

7H · 1HR · 4BB · 7K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.371 · SLGe 0.483 · K% 20.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 8 K · relief 1.7 IP · 3 arms

CIN · standout lines

big nights

Elly De La Cruz (SS) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Sal Stewart (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
JJ Bleday (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Jose Trevino (C) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

LAD · standout lines

big nights

Will Smith (C) · 1-3 | HR, HBP, KHR
Teoscar Hernández (LF) · 3-3 | 3B, BB, RBI3 H · 5 TB

tough nights

Freddie Freeman (DH) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K