Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

NYM @ MIA

Tuesday · September 8, 2026·full·gamePk 823821free Saturday

refreshed 419h 23m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · loanDepot park

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

82°F

humidity 82%

wind

4 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

12%

overcast

park

MIA

retractable · HP→CF 40°

wind impact on total

neutralnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Sean ManaeaLHP · NYM	Sandy AlcantaraRHP · MIA
xERA 2026	4.95	3.65
xwOBA 2026	0.340	0.296
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.013	-0.001
xERA 2025	3.99	4.64
xwOBA 2025	0.310	0.332
Outs/TB 25-26	1.61	2.04
FIP 25-26	4.53	4.02
kwERA 25-26	3.30	4.04
K% 25-26	23.9%	18.3%
BB% 25-26	6.4%	6.9%
IP 25+26 combined	189.0	370.3
ERA actual 2026	4.70	3.54
ERA (L4)	5.84	3.12
WHIP (L4)	1.30	1.19
K% (L4)	21.3%	10.3%
BB% (L4)	3.7%	7.5%
IP/gm (L4)	6.17	6.50
L4 window	08/09→09/01 (4 st)	08/14→09/03 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	100 (−3)	99 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.98 (+0.00)	6.16 (+1.72)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.83	0.70

away arsenal — NYM

RV/100 -0.83

4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.335
Sweeper—-2.30xwOBA 0.290
Sinker—+0.00xwOBA 0.397
Cutter—-1.50xwOBA 0.387
Changeup—-3.10xwOBA 0.376

home arsenal — MIA

RV/100 0.70

Sinker—+1.80xwOBA 0.294
Changeup—-0.20xwOBA 0.270
4-Seam Fastball—-0.90xwOBA 0.385
Cutter—+2.20xwOBA 0.301
Sweeper—+0.10xwOBA 0.260
Slider—+1.30xwOBA 0.199
Curveball—+0.10xwOBA 0.253

away · NYM vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.983

Σ match

2.865

Σ FRV

+1.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Francisco Lindor	0.334	0.322	-0.8
2	LF	Juan Soto	0.416	0.400	-3.2
3	DH	Bo Bichette	0.327	0.305	-1.5
4	RF	Carson Benge	0.335	0.324	+5.6
5	1B	Jared Young	0.309	0.289	-0.0
6	2B	Marcus Semien	0.306	0.310	-5.9
7	CF	A.J. Ewing	0.321	0.308	+6.9
8	3B	Brett Baty	0.310	0.304	-0.1
9	C	Francisco Alvarez	0.325	0.304	+0.3

home · MIA vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.536

Σ match

2.884

Σ FRV

+14.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Heriberto Hernández	0.352	0.386	+0.8
2	SS	Otto Lopez	0.323	0.388	+11.3
3	DH	Agustín Ramírez	0.275	0.293	-4.1
4	3B	Javier Sanoja	0.290	0.314	+3.6
5	RF	Esteury Ruiz	0.292	0.335	-3.6
6	1B	Deyvison De Los Santos	0.236	0.288	-0.2
7	CF	Jakob Marsee	0.307	0.331	+3.9
8	2B	Jared Serna	0.294	0.316	-0.0
9	C	Brian Navarreto	0.167	0.232	+2.8

defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)

Francisco Alvarez

FRV+0.3
framing+1.3
blocking-1.7
throwing+0.6

defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)

Brian Navarreto

FRV+2.8
framing-0.1
blocking+0.0
throwing+2.8

NYM · Sean Manaea

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs TB · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	101
Pitching+	—	—	98
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	3.98

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIA · Sandy Alcantara

Last outing 2026-09-03 vs KC · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	99
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	105
botOvr	—	—	57
SIERA	—	—	6.16

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-09-03. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-03; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

NYM · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.32–0.46]

0.091 R/PA · 0.129 R/out · worst: Tobias Myers (4.09)

MIA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.38–0.55]

0.109 R/PA · 0.154 R/out · worst: Josh Ekness (5.16)

NYM

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kodai Senga	BULK	CL	5.89	25.5	14.7	3.39	6/0/1	ramping down
Austin Warren	OPENER	MR	4.27	26.5	11.1	1.35	0/1/9	stable
Tobias Myers	OPENER	MR	4.92	17.3	6.4	1.77	1/3/5	stable
Daniel Duarte	MR	SU	2.90	26.0	6.0	1.67	2/6/2	insufficient data
Jonathan Pintaro	MR	MR	4.82	24.8	12.4	2.47	0/1/2	ramping up
Chris Devenski	MOP_UP	MR	5.68	15.6	0.0	0.78	0/1/1	insufficient data
Nate Lavender	unknown	SU	1.47	33.3	6.7	—	0/8/0	—
Dedniel Núñez	unknown	MR	4.27	23.5	0.0	—	0/2/0	—

MIA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Calvin Faucher	SETUP	CL	2.94	25.1	12.7	0.98	3/15/7	stable
Michael Petersen	SETUP	SU	3.40	28.6	11.1	1.06	1/23/4	stable
Dax Fulton	BULK	MR	3.30	20.5	15.4	2.50	0/0/3	ramping down
Cade Gibson	MR	MR	4.20	18.8	10.9	1.28	0/4/7	stable
Victor Vodnik	MR	MR	4.24	16.2	12.2	1.08	4/6/12	stable
Tyler Zuber	MR	SU	4.57	25.2	5.6	0.87	1/8/5	stable
Josh Ekness	MR	MR	4.81	15.8	13.9	0.89	1/2/2	stable
Bradley Blalock	unknown	LR	4.25	23.1	7.7	—	0/0/0	—
Jack Ralston	unknown	MR	4.86	19.4	12.9	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 NYM · 5 MIA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

NYM

7 R

8H · 3HR · 5BB · 7K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.342 · SLGe 0.559 · K% 17.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 9 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

MIA

5 R

10H · 0HR · 0BB · 9K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.278 · SLGe 0.417 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 7 K · relief 4.7 IP · 4 arms

NYM · standout lines

big nights

Francisco Lindor (SS) · 1-4 | HR, HBP, 2 KHR
Juan Soto (LF) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, BBHR
Brett Baty (3B) · 1-3 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Carson Benge (RF) · 0-3 | 2 BB, 2 K, SB0-for-3 · 2 K
Marcus Semien (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

MIA · standout lines

big nights

Jakob Marsee (CF) · 3-4 | 2B, RBI, R3 H · 4 TB
Jared Serna (2B) · 2-3 | 2 2B, K, RBI4 TB

tough nights

Agustín Ramírez (DH) · 0-4 | K0-for-4