Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

CHC @ MIL

Tuesday · September 8, 2026·full·gamePk 823738free Saturday

refreshed 419h 24m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · American Family Field

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

74°F

humidity 66%

wind

4 mph

in from CF

precip

10%

clear

park

MIL

retractable · HP→CF 137°

wind impact on total

neutralnone in

In wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	David PetersonLHP · CHC	Jacob MisiorowskiRHP · MIL
xERA 2026	4.95	2.08
xwOBA 2026	0.340	0.224
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.001	-0.006
xERA 2025	4.61	3.41
xwOBA 2025	0.331	0.288
Outs/TB 25-26	1.98	3.07
FIP 25-26	3.77	2.67
kwERA 25-26	4.09	1.99
K% 25-26	20.2%	36.4%
BB% 25-26	9.3%	8.0%
IP 25+26 combined	295.7	221.0
ERA actual 2026	5.39	1.97
ERA (L4)	5.95	4.50
WHIP (L4)	1.93	1.09
K% (L4)	24.2%	29.2%
BB% (L4)	12.1%	9.0%
IP/gm (L4)	4.92	5.50
L4 window	08/12→09/02 (4 st)	08/09→09/02 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	90 (+0)	126 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.22 (−0.10)	3.15 (+0.86)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.75	1.89

away arsenal — CHC

RV/100 -0.75

Sinker—+0.00xwOBA 0.427
4-Seam Fastball—-1.60xwOBA 0.332
Slider—+1.30xwOBA 0.254
Changeup—-2.50xwOBA 0.301
Curveball—-3.10xwOBA 0.311

home arsenal — MIL

RV/100 1.89

4-Seam Fastball—+1.60xwOBA 0.234
Cutter—+2.90xwOBA 0.246
Slider—+2.00xwOBA 0.227
Curveball—+2.10xwOBA 0.153

away · CHC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.909

Σ match

2.144

Σ FRV

+55.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0.374	0.266	+26.9
2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	0.339	0.258	+6.6
3	3B	Alex Bregman	0.320	0.232	+6.0
4	1B	Michael Busch	0.328	0.236	+1.4
5	SS	Nico Hoerner	0.323	0.233	+8.0
6	LF	Ian Happ	0.314	0.221	+5.1
7	2B	Matt Shaw	0.303	0.240	+1.6
8	DH	Tyrone Taylor	0.319	0.231	+1.1
9	C	Miguel Amaya	0.289	0.227	-0.8

home · MIL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.948

Σ match

3.192

Σ FRV

+20.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Jackson Chourio	0.331	0.355	+6.6
2	2B	Brice Turang	0.336	0.353	+11.6
3	1B	Andrew Vaughn	0.335	0.371	-6.4
4	C	William Contreras	0.332	0.357	-2.0
5	DH	Gary Sánchez	0.343	0.372	-5.4
6	RF	Luis Lara	0.311	0.327	+1.5
7	3B	Joey Ortiz	0.295	0.329	+8.7
8	CF	Garrett Mitchell	0.353	0.382	+3.6
9	SS	Cooper Pratt	0.312	0.344	+2.4

defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)

Miguel Amaya

FRV-0.8
framing-0.0
blocking-0.4
throwing+0.1

defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)

William Contreras

FRV-2.0
framing-4.3
blocking-0.7
throwing+3.0

CHC · David Peterson

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs MIL · 3.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	90
Location+	—	—	99
Pitching+	—	—	90
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	4.22

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIL · Jacob Misiorowski

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs CHC · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	126
Location+	—	—	94
Pitching+	—	—	122
botOvr	—	—	62
SIERA	—	—	3.15

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.37–0.50]

0.103 R/PA · 0.145 R/out · worst: Trent Thornton (4.69)

MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.37–0.46]

0.098 R/PA · 0.138 R/out · worst: Antonio Senzatela (4.13)

CHC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Daniel Palencia	CLOSER	SU	4.41	26.3	8.4	0.88	3/0/12	stable
Jacob Webb	SETUP	CL	3.76	25.8	8.6	0.98	9/8/14	stable
Ryan Zeferjahn	SETUP	SU	3.95	31.1	13.4	1.15	5/13/15	stable
Caleb Thielbar	SETUP	MR	5.04	29.1	9.0	0.85	3/7/6	stable
Ryan Rolison	OPENER	MR	3.98	22.3	10.7	1.12	2/7/13	stable
Trent Thornton	MR	MR	5.45	15.0	9.1	1.11	3/6/9	ramping down
Aaron Civale	SP	MR	4.67	18.4	6.9	4.67	2/0/0	ramping down
Colin Rea	SP	LR	4.88	17.3	8.2	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up

MIL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Trevor Megill	CLOSER	CL	1.89	29.0	6.5	0.97	27/7/21	stable
Abner Uribe	SETUP	SU	2.93	25.9	9.0	0.99	6/20/13	stable
Aaron Ashby	SETUP	SU	3.04	31.3	11.2	1.23	2/15/5	stable
JoJo Romero	SETUP	MR	4.25	22.1	8.8	0.98	0/21/4	stable
Chad Patrick	SWING	MR	3.98	20.7	10.0	2.46	5/10/5	ramping down
Antonio Senzatela	MR	MR	3.63	19.4	8.8	1.61	3/10/11	ramping down
DL Hall	MR	MR	3.84	27.8	15.5	1.29	0/5/5	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 CHC · 4 MIL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CHC

3 R

7H · 0HR · 4BB · 12K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.317 · SLGe 0.257 · K% 29.3

Their pitching

9.3 IP · 3 ER · 12 K · relief 5.0 IP · 6 arms

MIL

4 R

12H · 1HR · 5BB · 12K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.405 · SLGe 0.460 · K% 28.6

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 3 ER · 12 K · relief 3.7 IP · 6 arms

CHC · standout lines

tough nights

Alex Bregman (3B) · 0-50-for-5
Matt Shaw (LF) · 0-3 | BB, 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K

MIL · standout lines

big nights

Jackson Chourio (LF) · 4-5 | HR, 2B, 2 RBIHR · 4 H · 8 TB
Brice Turang (2B) · 3-4 | 2B, BB, RBI3 H · 4 TB

tough nights

Jake Bauers (1B) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Garrett Mitchell (CF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K