Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

COL @ NYY

Tuesday · September 8, 2026·full·gamePk 823500free Saturday

refreshed 419h 25m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Yankee Stadium

gametime 7:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

78°F

humidity 41%

wind

3 mph

in from CF

precip

overcast

park

NYY

open · HP→CF 75°

wind impact on total

-0.09 R/Gnone in

In wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Gabriel HughesRHP · COL	Cam SchlittlerRHP · NYY
xERA 2026	3.65	2.97
xwOBA 2026	0.296	0.268
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.030	-0.018
xERA 2025	—	4.10
xwOBA 2025	—	0.314
Outs/TB 25-26	1.89	2.60
FIP 25-26	4.04	2.95
kwERA 25-26	4.31	2.69
K% 25-26	18.2%	30.0%
BB% 25-26	9.1%	7.4%
IP 25+26 combined	52.3	244.7
ERA actual 2026	6.19	2.04
ERA (L4)	7.23	1.04
WHIP (L4)	1.71	0.73
K% (L4)	12.5%	36.1%
BB% (L4)	10.2%	8.2%
IP/gm (L4)	4.67	6.50
L4 window	08/16→09/01 (4 st)	08/09→09/02 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	82 (−4)	115 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	6.08 (+1.37)	3.72 (+0.79)
Arsenal RV/100	0.02	1.14

away arsenal — COL

RV/100 0.02

4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.296
Changeup—-0.50xwOBA 0.358
Curveball—-0.60xwOBA 0.183
Sinker—-1.90xwOBA 0.353
Slider—-0.50xwOBA 0.214
Sweeper—-1.80xwOBA 0.397

home arsenal — NYY

RV/100 1.14

4-Seam Fastball—+1.80xwOBA 0.239
Cutter—+0.10xwOBA 0.298
Sinker—+1.90xwOBA 0.265
Curveball—-0.70xwOBA 0.341

away · COL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.759

Σ match

2.474

Σ FRV

+4.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Jake McCarthy	0.323	0.296	-0.8
2	CF	Cole Carrigg	0.320	0.267	+1.7
3	1B	TJ Rumfield	0.334	0.293	+5.7
4	C	Hunter Goodman	0.325	0.300	-1.4
5	DH	Mickey Moniak	0.285	0.256	-0.1
6	3B	Kyle Karros	0.338	0.293	+0.4
7	2B	Adael Amador	0.253	0.255	+0.2
8	RF	Zac Veen	0.305	0.266	-2.2
9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0.276	0.247	+0.6

home · NYY vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.983

Σ match

2.891

Σ FRV

+17.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Ben Rice	0.376	0.385	-4.1
2	LF	Cody Bellinger	0.341	0.313	+10.0
3	RF	Aaron Judge	0.415	0.405	-1.2
4	1B	Luis García Jr.	0.349	0.355	+1.1
5	CF	Spencer Jones	0.327	0.310	-2.1
6	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.295	0.283	+7.1
7	SS	George Lombard Jr.	0.283	0.272	-0.6
8	3B	Ryan McMahon	0.305	0.297	+2.2
9	C	Austin Wells	0.292	0.272	+5.4

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Goodman

FRV-1.4
framing+0.0
blocking-0.6
throwing-0.8

defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Wells

FRV+5.4
framing+5.4
blocking+1.4
throwing-1.4

COL · Gabriel Hughes

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs BAL · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	82
Location+	—	—	110
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	6.08

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

NYY · Cam Schlittler

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs LAA · 8.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	115
Location+	—	—	96
Pitching+	—	—	111
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	3.72

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.45–0.51]

0.113 R/PA · 0.160 R/out · worst: Juan Mejia (4.62)

NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.36–0.52]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Tim Hill (4.68)

COL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jordan Romano	CLOSER	CL	3.52	24.8	12.0	0.79	15/1/13	stable
Jaden Hill	SETUP	MR	4.13	22.7	12.3	0.83	2/13/4	stable
Juan Mejia	SETUP	SU	4.34	19.9	13.4	1.10	4/9/16	stable
Brennan Bernardino	OPENER	SU	3.45	17.4	5.9	0.86	1/12/7	stable
Jimmy Herget	OPENER	MR	5.37	20.0	11.5	0.99	3/10/10	stable
Zach Agnos	SWING	MR	4.46	14.9	7.9	2.28	2/1/10	stable
Blas Castaño	MR	LR	4.96	18.9	7.4	2.07	0/0/2	stable
Nick Frasso	unknown	MR	2.36	21.5	7.7	—	0/0/0	—
Mark Manfredi	unknown	MR	2.70	25.6	14.0	—	0/0/0	—

NYY

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
David Bednar	CLOSER	CL	2.45	27.7	7.2	1.10	31/0/35	stable
Brent Headrick	SETUP	SU	2.20	30.4	7.2	1.01	0/25/6	stable
John Schreiber	SETUP	MR	4.83	17.3	11.2	0.91	1/14/5	stable
Tim Hill	SETUP	MR	5.32	11.1	5.1	0.84	2/10/6	stable
Paul Blackburn	OPENER	SU	3.70	21.3	9.2	1.53	1/10/13	stable
Ryan Yarbrough	MR	MR	3.77	17.3	9.3	1.59	3/1/14	stable
Michael Fulmer	unknown	MR	4.71	25.0	13.9	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 COL · 5 NYY

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

COL

3 R

4H · 2HR · 1BB · 13K · 4LOB

OBPe 0.156 · SLGe 0.323 · K% 40.6

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 10 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms

NYY

5 R

8H · 1HR · 3BB · 10K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.353 · SLGe 0.433 · K% 29.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 13 K · relief 2.0 IP · 4 arms

COL · standout lines

big nights

Hunter Goodman (C) · 1-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR
Adael Amador (2B) · 1-3 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Cole Carrigg (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Mickey Moniak (DH) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K

NYY · standout lines

big nights

Heliot Ramos (RF) · 1-1 | HR, 3 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Aaron Judge (RF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Spencer Jones (CF) · 0-3 | BB, 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K