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today's slate

HOU @ PHI

Tuesday · September 8, 2026·full·gamePk 823414free Saturday

refreshed 419h 23m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Citizens Bank Park

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

78°F

humidity 49%

wind

5 mph

out to CF

precip

overcast

park

PHI

open · HP→CF 16°

wind impact on total

+0.16 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.16 R/G vs neutral. _Open bowl + short porches both sides + warm SW summer wind out to RF = launching pad_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Hayden WesneskiRHP · HOU	Andrew PainterRHP · PHI
xERA 2026	3.81	4.32
xwOBA 2026	0.302	0.320
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.036	0.014
xERA 2025	4.30	—
xwOBA 2025	0.321	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.27	1.81
FIP 25-26	3.97	4.65
kwERA 25-26	3.66	3.98
K% 25-26	21.4%	20.0%
BB% 25-26	6.9%	8.1%
IP 25+26 combined	71.7	105.3
ERA actual 2026	3.18	5.55
ERA (L4)	3.52	3.24
WHIP (L4)	1.00	0.84
K% (L4)	22.8%	22.9%
BB% (L4)	7.6%	6.2%
IP/gm (L4)	5.75	6.25
L4 window	08/10→09/02 (4 st)	08/16→09/02 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	93 (−1)	112 (+9)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.81 (+0.47)	4.34 (−0.01)
Arsenal RV/100	1.06	-0.34

away arsenal — HOU

RV/100 1.06

Sweeper—+2.30xwOBA 0.239
4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.352
Sinker—+0.50xwOBA 0.283
Cutter—-0.40xwOBA 0.380
Changeup—+1.80xwOBA 0.232

home arsenal — PHI

RV/100 -0.34

4-Seam Fastball—-1.90xwOBA 0.394
Slider—-1.10xwOBA 0.327
Sweeper—+0.80xwOBA 0.291
Split-Finger—-0.40xwOBA 0.234
Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.380
Changeup—+4.10xwOBA 0.147
Curveball—+1.00xwOBA 0.229

away · HOU vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.863

Σ match

2.911

Σ FRV

-9.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jeremy Peña	0.325	0.335	-2.9
2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	0.447	0.457	-2.7
3	3B	Isaac Paredes	0.319	0.316	+0.8
4	2B	Jose Altuve	0.275	0.277	-8.1
5	CF	Daulton Varsho	0.291	0.298	+3.7
6	C	Yainer Diaz	0.303	0.306	-4.9
7	1B	Christian Walker	0.300	0.303	+4.1
8	LF	Taylor Trammell	0.286	0.297	-1.6
9	RF	Cam Smith	0.317	0.321	+2.4

home · PHI vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.918

Σ match

2.732

Σ FRV

-15.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Kyle Schwarber	0.369	0.351	-0.8
2	SS	Trea Turner	0.294	0.272	-7.9
3	RF	Bryce Harper	0.392	0.384	-11.4
4	2B	Luis Arraez	0.305	0.288	+10.5
5	1B	Alec Bohm	0.322	0.299	-5.9
6	3B	Bryson Stott	0.329	0.309	+5.2
7	LF	Brandon Marsh	0.306	0.281	-5.0
8	C	J.T. Realmuto	0.320	0.292	+1.1
9	CF	Justin Crawford	0.281	0.257	-1.0

defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)

Yainer Diaz

FRV-4.9
framing-4.2
blocking-0.1
throwing-0.6

defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)

J.T. Realmuto

FRV+1.1
framing+0.0
blocking-1.0
throwing+2.1

HOU · Hayden Wesneski

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs CWS · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	93
Location+	—	—	96
Pitching+	—	—	92
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	4.81

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

PHI · Andrew Painter

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs AZ · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	112
Location+	—	—	106
Pitching+	—	—	115
botOvr	—	—	63
SIERA	—	—	4.34

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

HOU · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.32–0.52]

0.098 R/PA · 0.140 R/out · worst: Bennett Sousa (4.29)

PHI · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.37R / inningband [0.31–0.42]

0.087 R/PA · 0.123 R/out · worst: Orion Kerkering (4.02)

HOU

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Josh Hader	CLOSER	CL	1.56	37.1	7.7	0.91	23/0/14	stable
Bryan Abreu	CLOSER	SU	4.57	29.2	16.7	0.92	8/13/21	stable
Enyel De Los Santos	SETUP	MR	3.67	22.0	6.5	1.07	5/10/13	stable
AJ Blubaugh	SETUP	SU	3.95	24.6	9.7	1.68	1/9/6	ramping up
Bryan King	SETUP	MR	4.77	18.2	7.9	1.07	6/12/11	stable
Miguel Ullola	MR	MR	4.37	37.0	3.7	2.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Bennett Sousa	MOP_UP	MR	4.57	23.1	13.9	0.67	0/8/2	stable
Tatsuya Imai	SP	LR	4.42	27.9	14.9	3.86	0/0/0	ramping down

PHI

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jhoan Duran	CLOSER	CL	1.33	34.1	4.3	0.94	30/0/35	stable
Jonathan Bowlan	SETUP	SU	3.24	31.6	6.6	0.93	2/13/2	stable
Brooks Raley	SETUP	MR	3.35	23.6	7.9	0.89	1/16/5	stable
José Alvarado	SETUP	MR	3.76	26.5	9.8	0.85	1/14/3	stable
Orion Kerkering	SETUP	SU	3.87	23.5	11.9	0.94	2/17/5	stable
Tim Mayza	OPENER	MR	3.22	24.5	6.2	1.15	0/1/9	stable
Chase Shugart	MR	LR	5.09	27.7	9.4	1.13	0/0/10	stable
Alex McFarlane	unknown	MR	3.60	22.9	10.4	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 HOU · 5 PHI

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

HOU

6 R

11H · 3HR · 4BB · 10K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.357 · SLGe 0.579 · K% 23.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 6 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms

PHI

5 R

10H · 1HR · 0BB · 6K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.324 · SLGe 0.514 · K% 16.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 10 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

HOU · standout lines

big nights

Daulton Varsho (CF) · 3-5 | HR, 2B, 2 KHR · 3 H · 7 TB
Christian Walker (1B) · 2-3 | HR, BB, 3 RBIHR
Cam Smith (RF) · 1-3 | HR, BB, KHR

tough nights

Yordan Alvarez (DH) · 0-5 | K0-for-5
Jose Altuve (2B) · 0-5 | K0-for-5

PHI · standout lines

big nights

Trea Turner (SS) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, KHR

tough nights

J.T. Realmuto (C) · 0-40-for-4