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today's slate

WSH @ SD

Tuesday · September 8, 2026·full·gamePk 823250free Saturday

refreshed 417h 45m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Petco Park

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

85°F

humidity 48%

wind

11 mph

in from CF

precip

clear

park

open · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

-0.25 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.25 R/G vs neutral. _Petco's marine-cool air is the suppressor; wind from west onshore most days_

opener / bulk pattern

WSH: Riley Cornelio opens → bulk: Miles Mikolas· predicted bulk based on 2/11 prior short outings

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Riley CornelioRHP · opener · WSH	Miles MikolasRHP · bulk · WSH	Casey MizeRHP · SD
xERA 2026	4.15	5.43	3.44
xwOBA 2026	0.314	0.354	0.288
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.025	0.010	0.005
xERA 2025	—	5.27	3.66
xwOBA 2025	—	0.351	0.298
Outs/TB 25-26	2.27	1.48	1.88
FIP 25-26	4.98	5.34	3.76
kwERA 25-26	5.18	4.39	3.48
K% 25-26	21.5%	13.5%	21.9%
BB% 25-26	19.6%	5.1%	5.9%
IP 25+26 combined	22.7	272.3	262.7
ERA actual 2026	5.96	5.82	3.64
ERA (L4)	5.68	8.57	5.09
WHIP (L4)	1.42	1.86	1.25
K% (L4)	11.5%	8.2%	10.4%
BB% (L4)	19.2%	5.2%	5.2%
IP/gm (L4)	2.11	5.25	4.42
L4 window	07/20→09/02 (3 outs)	07/06→08/06 (4 st)	08/16→09/02 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	108 (+3)	87 (−3)	85 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	8.97 (+3.38)	5.52 (+0.74)	7.43 (+3.26)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.69	-1.18	0.09

away arsenal · BULK Miles Mikolas — WSH

RV/100 -1.18

4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.368
Sinker—-1.10xwOBA 0.381
Slider—-1.10xwOBA 0.319
Curveball—-1.10xwOBA 0.309
Changeup—-3.50xwOBA 0.368
Sweeper—-6.40xwOBA 0.379

home arsenal — SD

RV/100 0.09

4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.265
Slider—+0.60xwOBA 0.319
Split-Finger—-0.70xwOBA 0.269
Sinker—+0.50xwOBA 0.338
Slurve—-3.70xwOBA 0.274

away · WSH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.961

Σ match

2.749

Σ FRV

-15.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	James Wood	0.419	0.409	-8.0
2	DH	Abimelec Ortiz	0.292	0.273	+0.2
3	CF	Dylan Crews	0.310	0.295	+1.2
4	SS	CJ Abrams	0.328	0.310	-11.9
5	3B	Brady House	0.334	0.303	-1.8
6	LF	Daylen Lile	0.329	0.288	+2.8
7	1B	Yohandy Morales	0.364	0.322	-0.3
8	2B	Jorbit Vivas	0.300	0.270	+2.6
9	C	Harry Ford	0.285	0.279	-0.8

home · SD vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.908

Σ match

3.246

Σ FRV

+36.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.375	0.422	+5.4
2	2B	Jake Cronenworth	0.270	0.300	-2.5
3	3B	Manny Machado	0.338	0.376	+5.0
4	1B	Ty France	0.331	0.370	+8.9
5	CF	Jackson Merrill	0.341	0.386	+8.9
6	DH	Luis Campusano	0.344	0.397	-3.5
7	LF	Dustin Harris	0.315	0.334	+0.5
8	SS	Xander Bogaerts	0.321	0.354	+3.5
9	C	Freddy Fermin	0.273	0.306	+9.8

defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)

Harry Ford

FRV-0.8
framing-0.3
blocking+0.2
throwing-0.7

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Freddy Fermin

FRV+9.8
framing+3.1
blocking+2.1
throwing+4.6

WSH · Miles Mikolas

Last outing 2026-08-06 vs PHI · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	87
Location+	—	—	110
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	5.52

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-26 → 2026-08-06. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SD · Casey Mize

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs CIN · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	85
Location+	—	—	107
Pitching+	—	—	95
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	7.43

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.29–0.57]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Riley Cornelio (5.18)

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.34–0.47]

0.094 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.52)

WSH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brad Lord	SETUP	MR	4.09	21.8	9.3	2.15	1/6/4	stable
Clayton Beeter	SETUP	CL	5.61	22.4	15.4	0.96	12/8/11	stable
Will Dion	MR	LR	4.10	28.5	7.6	1.79	0/0/6	ramping down
Yovanny Cruz	MR	MR	4.59	22.7	13.6	1.44	0/1/1	insufficient data
Riley Cornelio	MR	MR	4.98	21.5	19.6	2.04	0/0/2	ramping down
Zak Kent	MR	MR	5.74	15.9	10.1	1.43	0/0/7	stable
Jared Simpson	unknown	MR	1.09	36.4	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Erik Tolman	unknown	MR	1.86	33.3	11.1	—	1/1/0	—
Jack Sinclair	unknown	MR	5.09	23.1	15.4	—	0/0/0	—
Luis Perales	unknown	SU	8.69	17.9	14.3	—	0/0/0	—

SD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Mason Miller	CLOSER	CL	0.95	48.5	9.0	1.04	34/0/34	stable
Adrian Morejon	SETUP	SU	2.43	29.8	7.5	1.16	2/23/6	stable
Kyle Hart	SETUP	MR	3.41	23.1	7.9	1.40	0/8/5	stable
Bradgley Rodriguez	OPENER	SU	2.31	27.1	6.8	1.09	2/13/5	stable
Wandy Peralta	OPENER	MR	4.04	15.4	8.1	1.17	0/4/14	stable
David Morgan	MR	MR	4.13	24.0	12.8	1.22	0/1/5	stable
Yuki Matsui	MR	MR	4.14	27.1	14.2	1.35	0/8/5	ramping down
Griffin Canning	SP	MR	4.78	22.7	10.5	4.24	0/1/0	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 WSH · 5 SD

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

WSH

4 R

7H · 2HR · 1BB · 11K · 6LOB

OBPe 0.229 · SLGe 0.529 · K% 31.4

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 5 ER · 7 K · relief 5.0 IP · 6 arms

SD

5 R

6H · 0HR · 5BB · 7K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.324 · SLGe 0.222 · K% 20.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 11 K · relief 3.3 IP · 5 arms

WSH · standout lines

big nights

Andrés Chaparro (DH) · 1-1 | HR, RBI, RHR
Dylan Crews (CF) · 2-4 | 2 2B, K4 TB
Yohandy Morales (1B) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR

tough nights

James Wood (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Daylen Lile (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K