Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

STL @ SF

Tuesday · September 8, 2026·full·gamePk 823174free Saturday

refreshed 417h 43m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oracle Park

gametime 9:45 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

68°F

humidity 73%

wind

13 mph

out to CF

precip

overcast

park

open · HP→CF 91°

wind impact on total

+0.45 R/Gmoderate out

Moderate wind out: +0.45 R/G vs neutral. _Oracle Park — the famous wind park. McCovey Cove wind blows IN HARD from west most days, suppresses HR violently. Calm summer warm games (rare) let ball fly to LF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Quinn MathewsLHP · STL	Landen RouppRHP · SF
xERA 2026	3.32	3.73
xwOBA 2026	0.283	0.299
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.037	-0.003
xERA 2025	—	4.24
xwOBA 2025	—	0.319
Outs/TB 25-26	2.18	2.17
FIP 25-26	3.25	3.79
kwERA 25-26	4.11	4.01
K% 25-26	21.4%	21.9%
BB% 25-26	10.7%	10.4%
IP 25+26 combined	24.7	251.3
ERA actual 2026	4.38	4.17
ERA (L4)	4.58	3.00
WHIP (L4)	1.53	1.19
K% (L4)	23.9%	16.9%
BB% (L4)	10.2%	13.5%
IP/gm (L4)	4.92	5.25
L4 window	08/17→09/03 (4 st)	08/08→09/02 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	95 (−1)	96 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.68 (−0.85)	6.97 (+2.57)
Arsenal RV/100	0.04	0.42

away arsenal — STL

RV/100 0.04

4-Seam Fastball—-0.70xwOBA 0.352
Slider—+1.00xwOBA 0.244
Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.292

home arsenal — SF

RV/100 0.42

Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.394
Curveball—+0.90xwOBA 0.234
Changeup—+1.00xwOBA 0.259
Cutter—+0.10xwOBA 0.287
4-Seam Fastball—-1.30xwOBA 0.193

away · STL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.869

Σ match

2.805

Σ FRV

+10.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Bryan Torres	0.302	0.279	+1.4
2	DH	Iván Herrera	0.333	0.322	-4.6
3	1B	Alec Burleson	0.374	0.376	+4.8
4	RF	Jordan Walker	0.347	0.354	-8.2
5	C	Leo Bernal	0.345	0.321	-0.4
6	3B	Nolan Gorman	0.279	0.264	+0.9
7	2B	Thomas Saggese	0.309	0.315	+0.9
8	SS	Masyn Winn	0.299	0.295	+15.0
9	CF	Nathan Church	0.281	0.279	+0.9

home · SF vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.638

Σ match

2.677

Σ FRV

-11.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Jonah Cox	0.262	0.243	+1.6
2	1B	Rafael Devers	0.342	0.335	-5.0
3	DH	Bryce Eldridge	0.356	0.396	+0.9
4	2B	Osleivis Basabe	0.278	0.273	-4.2
5	LF	Turner Hill	0.337	0.348	-0.7
6	C	Andrew Knizner	0.263	0.280	-2.9
7	3B	Shay Whitcomb	0.246	0.282	-0.7
8	RF	Grant McCray	0.311	0.311	-2.1
9	SS	Christian Koss	0.243	0.209	+2.0

defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)

Leo Bernal

FRV-0.4
framing+0.6
blocking+0.1
throwing-0.4

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Andrew Knizner

FRV-2.9
framing-1.5
blocking-0.5
throwing-0.8

STL · Quinn Mathews

Last outing 2026-09-03 vs LAD · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	95
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	100
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	3.68

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-03. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-03; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SF · Landen Roupp

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs PIT · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	96
Location+	—	—	100
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	6.97

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

STL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.27–0.63]

0.106 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Justin Bruihl (4.59)

SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.50R / inningband [0.41–0.60]

0.118 R/PA · 0.167 R/out · worst: Philip Abner (5.78)

STL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Riley O'Brien	CLOSER	CL	3.66	22.7	10.4	0.99	36/1/33	stable
Justin Bruihl	SETUP	MR	3.99	15.1	8.4	1.11	0/10/5	ramping up
Ryne Stanek	SETUP	SU	4.67	24.4	11.8	0.89	2/25/5	stable
George Soriano	SETUP	SU	4.79	23.1	11.2	0.98	3/21/7	stable
Brycen Mautz	BULK	MR	6.53	22.9	14.6	3.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Gordon Graceffo	MR	MR	3.96	18.1	11.0	1.18	1/6/10	stable
Luis Gastelum	MR	MR	4.45	30.3	8.4	1.00	0/1/1	stable
Cooper Hjerpe	unknown	LR	0.09	50.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Cade Winquest	unknown	MR	2.42	21.7	8.7	—	0/1/0	—

SF

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Joel Kuhnel	SETUP	MR	5.35	14.0	7.9	1.01	6/6/16	stable
Dylan Smith	MR	CL	3.42	27.7	10.8	0.88	4/7/5	stable
Jason Foley	MR	SU	3.76	13.8	9.2	1.00	0/2/0	insufficient data
Reiver Sanmartin	MR	MR	4.36	19.0	7.1	1.67	0/3/1	insufficient data
Philip Abner	MR	MR	5.74	9.4	12.5	1.87	0/0/1	stable
Carson Seymour	MR	MR	5.96	16.0	10.4	2.17	1/6/0	insufficient data
Trent Harris	unknown	SU	1.69	32.8	10.9	—	0/4/0	—
Matt Wilkinson	unknown	MR	6.36	12.5	6.2	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 STL · 2 SF

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

STL

1 R

5H · 0HR · 6BB · 3K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.289 · SLGe 0.156 · K% 7.9

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 K · relief 2.0 IP · 2 arms

SF

2 R

6H · 2HR · 3BB · 6K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.265 · SLGe 0.433 · K% 17.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 3 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

STL · standout lines

tough nights

Jordan Walker (RF) · 0-40-for-4
Masyn Winn (SS) · 0-40-for-4

SF · standout lines

big nights

Bryce Eldridge (DH) · 1-3 | HR, BB, 2 KHR
Christian Koss (SS) · 2-3 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Rafael Devers (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Andrew Knizner (C) · 0-4 | K0-for-4