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today's slate

TEX @ SEA

Tuesday · September 8, 2026·full·gamePk 823092free Saturday

refreshed 417h 44m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · T-Mobile Park

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

65°F

humidity 67%

wind

6 mph

in from RF

precip

clear

park

SEA

retractable · HP→CF 36°

wind impact on total

-0.03 R/Gnone in

In wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Cal QuantrillRHP · TEX	Bryce MillerRHP · SEA
xERA 2026	3.78	3.32
xwOBA 2026	0.301	0.283
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.026	0.020
xERA 2025	5.77	5.30
xwOBA 2025	0.365	0.352
Outs/TB 25-26	1.84	1.77
FIP 25-26	4.60	4.67
kwERA 25-26	4.08	3.73
K% 25-26	17.5%	21.5%
BB% 25-26	6.5%	7.6%
IP 25+26 combined	214.3	189.0
ERA actual 2026	2.79	4.01
ERA (L4)	0.36	7.78
WHIP (L4)	0.84	1.78
K% (L4)	22.9%	17.6%
BB% (L4)	5.2%	12.1%
IP/gm (L4)	6.25	4.92
L4 window	08/12→09/03 (4 st)	08/12→09/02 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	87 (−3)	102 (−5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.15 (−1.09)	5.85 (+2.06)
Arsenal RV/100	0.90	0.11

away arsenal — TEX

RV/100 0.90

Sinker—+2.30xwOBA 0.274
4-Seam Fastball—+2.00xwOBA 0.275
Split-Finger—-0.10xwOBA 0.276
Cutter—-1.60xwOBA 0.432
Curveball—+1.40xwOBA 0.246
Slider—+4.00xwOBA 0.219

home arsenal — SEA

RV/100 0.11

4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.303
Split-Finger—+0.50xwOBA 0.220
Slider—-1.90xwOBA 0.368
Sinker—-0.30xwOBA 0.333
Sweeper—+2.00xwOBA 0.221
Cutter—-3.60xwOBA 0.404
Curveball—+0.70xwOBA 0.196

away · TEX vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.765

Σ match

2.552

Σ FRV

+18.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Joc Pederson	0.343	0.323	-2.2
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.350	0.315	-0.4
3	3B	Ezequiel Duran	0.307	0.278	+14.4
4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.353	0.317	-4.9
5	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.314	0.286	+3.0
6	CF	Evan Carter	0.278	0.273	+7.2
7	1B	Jake Burger	0.317	0.287	+4.6
8	2B	Nicky Lopez	0.253	0.224	+0.4
9	C	Danny Jansen	0.250	0.249	-3.6

home · SEA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.792

Σ match

2.854

Σ FRV

-21.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.348	0.346	-6.4
2	RF	Dominic Canzone	0.355	0.370	+0.3
3	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.335	0.323	-0.4
4	C	Cal Raleigh	0.316	0.321	-3.1
5	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.325	0.313	-7.5
6	1B	Josh Naylor	0.314	0.313	+2.5
7	2B	Cole Young	0.316	0.317	-2.8
8	DH	Lazaro Montes	0.252	0.283	-0.3
9	3B	Brock Rodden	0.231	0.266	-3.7

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Danny Jansen

FRV-3.6
framing-4.6
blocking+1.8
throwing-0.8

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-3.1
framing-3.2
blocking+2.4
throwing-2.3

TEX · Cal Quantrill

Last outing 2026-09-03 vs TB · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	87
Location+	—	—	110
Pitching+	—	—	96
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	3.15

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-09-03. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-03; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SEA · Bryce Miller

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs BOS · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	102
Location+	—	—	108
Pitching+	—	—	110
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	5.85

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.35–0.51]

0.101 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Robert Garcia (5.75)

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.38–0.46]

0.099 R/PA · 0.140 R/out · worst: Cooper Criswell (4.14)

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.65	29.7	8.5	1.28	28/3/26	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	SU	3.37	17.2	5.9	1.12	6/17/9	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	MR	4.01	26.1	14.1	0.85	0/15/7	stable
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	2.80	20.4	6.7	0.95	4/12/11	stable
Robert Garcia	MR	SU	4.21	17.6	20.6	0.89	0/2/1	stable
Adam Macko	MR	MR	4.34	22.5	10.0	1.04	0/5/2	stable
Robby Ahlstrom	MR	MR	5.16	20.5	7.3	0.82	0/6/3	stable
Trevor Williams	unknown	MR	3.98	27.5	8.8	—	0/1/0	—
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	LR	4.95	19.7	6.1	—	0/0/0	—

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	2.86	38.2	9.2	0.93	25/0/29	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.01	23.4	7.8	0.94	0/26/2	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	4.02	17.6	6.5	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	4.08	21.6	8.6	0.82	1/18/5	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	MR	5.01	25.2	13.3	0.89	12/6/18	stable
Cooper Criswell	MR	LR	3.81	18.0	7.5	1.18	1/3/12	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	MR	4.25	26.1	8.3	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	3.52	23.1	5.1	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

10 TEX · 5 SEA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TEX

10 R

11H · 3HR · 5BB · 16K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.386 · SLGe 0.526 · K% 36.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 8 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

SEA

5 R

9H · 1HR · 1BB · 8K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.263 · SLGe 0.417 · K% 21.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 10 ER · 16 K · relief 5.3 IP · 7 arms

TEX · standout lines

big nights

Corey Seager (SS) · 1-4 | HR, BB, KHR
Wyatt Langford (LF) · 1-4 | HR, BB, KHR
Nicky Lopez (2B) · 3-3 | HBP, RBI, R3 H
Danny Jansen (C) · 2-4 | HR, K, 4 RBIHR · 4 RBI

tough nights

Ezequiel Duran (2B) · 0-4 | BB, 3 K, R0-for-4 · 3 K
Brandon Nimmo (RF) · 0-5 | 4 K0-for-5 · 4 K
Jake Burger (1B) · 0-3 | 2 BB, 3 K, 2 R0-for-3 · 3 K

SEA · standout lines

big nights

Lazaro Montes (DH) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, 3 RBIHR

tough nights

Julio Rodríguez (CF) · 0-40-for-4
J.P. Crawford (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4