Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

TOR @ ATH

Monday · September 7, 2026·full·gamePk 824958free Saturday

refreshed 441h 19m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Sutter Health Park

gametime 10:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

83°F

humidity 21%

wind

4 mph

in from CF

precip

clear

park

ATH

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

-0.14 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.14 R/G vs neutral. _Sutter Health Park (Sacramento) — open bowl, delta breeze in afternoon_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Dylan CeaseRHP · TOR	Jacob LopezLHP · ATH
xERA 2026	2.73	3.40
xwOBA 2026	0.257	0.286
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.012	0.048
xERA 2025	3.46	3.64
xwOBA 2025	0.290	0.297
Outs/TB 25-26	2.59	1.91
FIP 25-26	3.00	4.56
kwERA 25-26	2.71	3.63
K% 25-26	32.6%	25.0%
BB% 25-26	10.1%	10.3%
IP 25+26 combined	324.3	197.7
ERA actual 2026	2.25	4.71
ERA (L4)	1.44	2.35
WHIP (L4)	0.84	1.09
K% (L4)	32.3%	29.8%
BB% (L4)	9.7%	8.5%
IP/gm (L4)	6.25	5.75
L4 window	08/16→09/02 (4 st)	08/16→09/02 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	100 (−7)	104 (+6)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.27 (+0.28)	3.52 (−1.15)
Arsenal RV/100	1.45	-0.25

away arsenal — TOR

RV/100 1.45

4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.294
Slider—+3.10xwOBA 0.212
Changeup—+1.50xwOBA 0.167
Curveball—-0.90xwOBA 0.348
Sinker—+0.90xwOBA 0.319
Sweeper—-1.10xwOBA 0.237

home arsenal — ATH

RV/100 -0.25

4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.273
Slider—+0.10xwOBA 0.237
Cutter—+0.10xwOBA 0.327
Changeup—-6.60xwOBA 0.393
Sinker—+0.70xwOBA 0.399

away · TOR vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.680

Σ match

2.462

Σ FRV

+36.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Brett Bateman	0.300	0.283	+2.9
2	DH	George Springer	0.306	0.295	-0.3
3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.332	0.290	+5.4
4	C	Alejandro Kirk	0.302	0.291	+9.8
5	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0.317	0.285	-2.8
6	RF	Nathan Lukes	0.289	0.278	+6.3
7	2B	Ernie Clement	0.265	0.240	-3.6
8	SS	Andrés Giménez	0.269	0.238	+14.7
9	LF	Myles Straw	0.300	0.263	+4.1

home · ATH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.715

Σ match

2.298

Σ FRV

-30.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Henry Bolte	0.311	0.270	+4.6
2	1B	Jeff McNeil	0.306	0.260	-2.1
3	3B	Zack Gelof	0.313	0.248	-1.1
4	RF	Lawrence Butler	0.322	0.269	-11.2
5	LF	Carlos Cortes	0.304	0.257	-5.3
6	DH	Max Muncy	0.291	0.255	-4.8
7	2B	Donovan Walton	0.333	0.268	-6.0
8	SS	Alika Williams	0.243	0.221	+1.4
9	C	Jonah Heim	0.292	0.250	-6.0

defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)

Alejandro Kirk

FRV+9.8
framing+7.0
blocking+3.4
throwing-0.6

defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)

Jonah Heim

FRV-6.0
framing-1.3
blocking-2.2
throwing-1.4

TOR · Dylan Cease

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs CLE · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	101
Pitching+	—	—	102
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	3.27

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATH · Jacob Lopez

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs TEX · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	104
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	105
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	3.52

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TOR · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.37–0.53]

0.105 R/PA · 0.149 R/out · worst: Ricky Tiedemann (5.40)

ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.37–0.51]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Geoff Hartlieb (5.25)

TOR

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Louis Varland	CLOSER	CL	1.80	31.6	6.9	1.11	33/5/31	stable
Paul Sewald	CLOSER	MR	5.33	25.7	6.3	0.91	24/2/33	stable
Tyler Rogers	SETUP	SU	3.28	13.2	7.9	0.97	4/31/6	stable
Mason Fluharty	OPENER	MR	3.70	25.7	10.8	0.76	1/15/5	stable
Braydon Fisher	OPENER	SU	4.20	23.8	13.3	1.05	1/12/7	stable
Spencer Miles	SWING	MR	2.80	22.7	6.1	2.37	1/4/6	ramping up
Joe Mantiply	MR	MR	3.27	22.5	5.6	1.04	0/0/4	ramping down
Brendon Little	MOP_UP	MR	5.65	32.4	19.4	0.95	0/3/2	ramping up
Ricky Tiedemann	unknown	MR	4.70	20.0	20.0	—	0/0/0	—
Michael Lorenzen	SP	LR	5.30	14.6	8.5	4.62	1/0/0	ramping up

ATH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Luis Medina	SETUP	SU	3.75	28.6	12.1	1.38	0/10/10	stable
Hogan Harris	SETUP	CL	3.79	29.7	13.8	0.93	15/12/13	stable
Brady Basso	MR	MR	3.27	16.6	3.4	1.22	0/3/0	ramping up
Geoff Hartlieb	MR	MR	4.39	12.3	11.1	2.13	0/2/3	ramping down
Seth Johnson	MR	MR	4.52	26.8	15.2	1.13	0/0/4	stable
Elvis Alvarado	MR	CL	4.56	28.2	11.8	1.08	5/9/11	stable
Chris Roycroft	MR	MR	6.86	14.3	9.5	1.28	1/1/6	ramping up
Yunior Tur	MR	MR	9.71	21.3	12.8	2.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Scott Blewett	unknown	MR	2.10	22.7	7.3	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 TOR · 6 ATH

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TOR

5 R

9H · 3HR · 3BB · 4K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.316 · SLGe 0.559 · K% 10.5

Their pitching

8.7 IP · 5 ER · 10 K · relief 3.7 IP · 6 arms

ATH

6 R

6H · 1HR · 4BB · 10K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.263 · SLGe 0.294 · K% 26.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 4 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

TOR · standout lines

big nights

Alejandro Kirk (C) · 2-4 | HR, RBI, RHR
Kazuma Okamoto (3B) · 1-2 | HR, 2 BB, RBIHR
Andrés Giménez (SS) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Brett Bateman (CF) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4
George Springer (DH) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K

ATH · standout lines

big nights

Henry Bolte (LF) · 1-2 | HR, 3 BB, RBIHR

tough nights

Lawrence Butler (RF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Alika Williams (SS) · 0-40-for-4
Jonah Heim (C) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K