Baseball Daily

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today's slate

CLE @ BAL

Monday · September 7, 2026·full·gamePk 824793free Saturday

refreshed 450h 48m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oriole Park at Camden Yards

gametime 1:35 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

82°F

humidity 41%

wind

5 mph

in from CF

precip

clear

park

BAL

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

-0.16 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.16 R/G vs neutral. _Inner Harbor breeze — wind in from RF cools HR rate in early season; warmer summer = ball flies_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Joey CantilloLHP · CLE	Trevor RogersLHP · BAL
xERA 2026	4.04	3.76
xwOBA 2026	0.310	0.300
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.023	0.009
xERA 2025	3.71	3.41
xwOBA 2025	0.300	0.288
Outs/TB 25-26	2.08	2.47
FIP 25-26	3.83	3.22
kwERA 25-26	3.69	3.42
K% 25-26	25.5%	23.0%
BB% 25-26	11.2%	6.4%
IP 25+26 combined	237.0	254.0
ERA actual 2026	3.81	4.30
ERA (L4)	3.93	4.98
WHIP (L4)	1.47	1.29
K% (L4)	21.5%	30.4%
BB% (L4)	15.2%	4.3%
IP/gm (L4)	4.58	5.42
L4 window	08/09→09/02 (4 st)	08/10→09/02 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	93 (−2)	100 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.41 (+1.14)	3.80 (−0.16)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.41	0.16

away arsenal — CLE

RV/100 -0.41

4-Seam Fastball—-1.10xwOBA 0.373
Curveball—+0.40xwOBA 0.237
Changeup—-0.20xwOBA 0.266
Cutter—-1.00xwOBA 0.432
Slider—-0.80xwOBA 0.380

home arsenal — BAL

RV/100 0.16

4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.313
Changeup—-1.70xwOBA 0.342
Sweeper—+1.00xwOBA 0.220
Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.273
Cutter—+0.30xwOBA 0.316

away · CLE vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.682

Σ match

2.667

Σ FRV

+14.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Steven Kwan	0.322	0.311	+6.7
2	DH	Jo Adell	0.324	0.327	-8.5
3	3B	José Ramírez	0.335	0.335	+1.9
4	RF	Angel Martínez	0.303	0.300	+2.9
5	1B	David Fry	0.259	0.262	-2.2
6	2B	Angel Genao	0.290	0.285	+0.8
7	C	Austin Hedges	0.275	0.274	-1.7
8	CF	Petey Halpin	0.283	0.282	+3.5
9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	0.291	0.291	+10.8

home · BAL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.807

Σ match

2.860

Σ FRV

-16.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Blaze Alexander	0.352	0.333	-4.9
2	1B	Pete Alonso	0.392	0.378	-1.6
3	2B	Jackson Holliday	0.303	0.288	-4.1
4	3B	Coby Mayo	0.317	0.336	-2.1
5	SS	Gunnar Henderson	0.315	0.307	+1.6
6	DH	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0.345	0.349	+1.9
7	C	Samuel Basallo	0.322	0.309	-1.8
8	CF	Rece Hinds	0.158	0.263	+0.5
9	LF	Dylan Beavers	0.303	0.297	-6.3

defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Hedges

FRV-1.7
framing+1.5
blocking-0.9
throwing-2.2

defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)

Samuel Basallo

FRV-1.8
framing-4.4
blocking+1.0
throwing+2.1

CLE · Joey Cantillo

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs TOR · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	93
Location+	—	—	84
Pitching+	—	—	76
botOvr	—	—	41
SIERA	—	—	5.41

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

BAL · Trevor Rogers

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs COL · 6.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	109
Pitching+	—	—	108
botOvr	—	—	59
SIERA	—	—	3.80

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.31–0.50]

0.096 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.25)

BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.34–0.43]

0.091 R/PA · 0.129 R/out · worst: Luis De León (4.40)

CLE

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Cade Smith	CLOSER	CL	2.32	35.6	8.0	1.05	35/0/37	stable
Erik Sabrowski	SETUP	SU	2.76	37.6	14.6	0.78	1/23/2	stable
Matt Festa	SETUP	MR	3.42	24.7	6.8	0.97	1/7/13	stable
Hunter Gaddis	SETUP	SU	3.78	22.3	9.3	0.86	1/28/2	stable
Tim Herrin	SETUP	MR	4.40	21.6	12.0	0.79	0/15/5	stable
Daniel Espino	MR	MR	2.46	44.1	11.8	1.00	0/0/1	stable
Franco Aleman	MR	MR	3.73	26.8	9.8	1.11	0/3/0	stable
Craig Yoho	MR	MR	4.84	24.8	9.9	1.33	0/1/5	stable
Slade Cecconi	SP	LR	4.63	18.1	7.4	5.21	0/0/0	ramping up

BAL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yennier Cano	SETUP	SU	2.71	22.3	5.4	0.74	3/13/6	stable
Grant Wolfram	SETUP	MR	2.85	26.3	7.1	0.80	1/12/3	stable
Andrew Kittredge	SETUP	CL	3.64	18.9	5.6	0.87	9/9/11	stable
Anthony Nunez	SETUP	MR	3.72	25.8	11.1	1.12	3/7/7	stable
Rico Garcia	SETUP	CL	4.07	26.2	8.4	0.93	6/18/16	stable
Alex Hoppe	MR	MR	3.04	24.8	9.7	1.14	1/5/13	stable
Cam Sanders	MR	MR	3.37	29.5	15.2	1.00	3/1/5	stable
Josh Walker	MR	MR	3.41	24.5	8.5	1.20	0/3/3	ramping down
Luis De León	unknown	MR	7.59	16.7	8.3	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 CLE · 6 BAL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CLE

4 R

9H · 1HR · 0BB · 6K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.265 · SLGe 0.382 · K% 17.6

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 6 ER · 11 K · relief 5.7 IP · 5 arms

BAL

6 R

9H · 2HR · 7BB · 11K · 26LOB

OBPe 0.429 · SLGe 0.485 · K% 26.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 6 K · relief 1.7 IP · 4 arms

CLE · standout lines

big nights

Nathaniel Lowe (PH) · 1-1 | HR, 3 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Angel Genao (2B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

BAL · standout lines

big nights

Coby Mayo (3B) · 2-5 | 2 HR, 2 K, 3 RBI2-HR night · 8 TB

tough nights

Blaze Alexander (3B) · 0-3 | 2 BB, 2 K, RBI0-for-3 · 2 K
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (DH) · 0-4 | BB, K, R0-for-4