Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

LAA @ BOS

Monday · September 7, 2026·full·gamePk 824715free Saturday

refreshed 449h 52m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Fenway Park

gametime 1:35 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

80°F

humidity 30%

wind

11 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

clear

park

BOS

open · HP→CF 46°

wind impact on total

+0.01 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

opener / bulk pattern

BOS: Brayan Bello opens → bulk: no confident pattern

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Grayson RodriguezRHP · LAA	Brayan BelloRHP · BOS
xERA 2026	5.40	5.47
xwOBA 2026	0.353	0.355
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.009	-0.020
xERA 2025	—	4.48
xwOBA 2025	—	0.327
Outs/TB 25-26	1.59	2.10
FIP 25-26	4.75	4.23
kwERA 25-26	4.06	4.32
K% 25-26	20.7%	17.2%
BB% 25-26	9.5%	8.1%
IP 25+26 combined	77.7	264.3
ERA actual 2026	6.03	5.07
ERA (L4)	5.03	5.17
WHIP (L4)	1.53	1.40
K% (L4)	27.6%	15.7%
BB% (L4)	10.3%	8.6%
IP/gm (L4)	4.92	3.92
L4 window	08/09→09/01 (4 st)	06/04→08/17 (4 outs)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	100 (−4)	92 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.99 (−0.49)	2.66 (−1.49)
Arsenal RV/100	-1.13	-0.19

away arsenal — LAA

RV/100 -1.13

4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.371
Changeup—-0.20xwOBA 0.274
Slider—-3.20xwOBA 0.385
Curveball—-2.00xwOBA 0.414

home arsenal · BULK Brayan Bello — BOS

RV/100 -0.19

Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.369
Changeup—+0.50xwOBA 0.287
Cutter—-1.40xwOBA 0.455
Sweeper—+1.10xwOBA 0.199
4-Seam Fastball—-3.20xwOBA 0.485
Curveball—-2.00xwOBA 0.378

away · LAA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

3.075

Σ match

3.238

Σ FRV

-0.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.305	0.382	-2.6
2	DH	Mike Trout	0.375	0.454	-2.9
3	LF	Wade Meckler	0.311	0.339	+2.0
4	3B	Vaughn Grissom	0.314	0.369	-5.4
5	1B	Moisés Ballesteros	0.289	0.320	-1.5
6	2B	Christian Moore	0.249	0.314	-1.6
7	RF	Josh Lowe	0.291	0.326	+5.0
8	CF	Kyren Paris	0.698	0.452	—
9	C	Tyler Heineman	0.243	0.282	+6.2

home · BOS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.833

Σ match

3.183

Σ FRV

+27.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Roman Anthony	0.356	0.422	+0.5
2	1B	Mickey Gasper	0.377	0.468	-2.9
3	C	Adley Rutschman	0.334	0.364	+10.4
4	RF	Wilyer Abreu	0.347	0.370	+4.5
5	SS	Trevor Story	0.252	0.273	-1.6
6	3B	Caleb Durbin	0.289	0.327	+4.6
7	LF	Jarren Duran	0.296	0.317	+3.2
8	2B	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	0.307	0.339	+4.6
9	CF	Eli White	0.275	0.302	+4.5

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Tyler Heineman

FRV+6.2
framing+4.4
blocking-0.3
throwing+2.1

defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)

Adley Rutschman

FRV+10.4
framing+6.2
blocking+0.6
throwing+3.6

LAA · Grayson Rodriguez

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs NYY · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	97
Pitching+	—	—	95
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	3.99

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

BOS · Brayan Bello

Last outing 2026-08-17 vs AZ · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	92
Location+	—	—	119
Pitching+	—	—	110
botOvr	—	—	58
SIERA	—	—	2.66

Last 3 outings: 2026-07-31 → 2026-08-17. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.30–0.46]

0.090 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.18)

BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.46]

0.093 R/PA · 0.132 R/out · worst: Brayan Bello (4.37)

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Samy Natera Jr.	MR	SU	1.87	38.8	10.3	1.16	3/4/3	stable
Tayler Saucedo	MR	MR	2.39	28.6	4.8	0.56	0/5/0	stable
José Fermin	MR	MR	3.91	27.5	10.4	1.11	1/7/7	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	4.14	19.4	7.8	1.61	2/4/21	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	LR	4.95	24.3	11.4	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	2.23	36.1	13.9	—	3/2/0	—
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	2.70	20.8	2.1	—	0/2/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	4.02	25.4	15.3	—	0/4/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	MR	5.51	28.3	8.3	—	0/1/0	—

BOS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Aroldis Chapman	CLOSER	CL	2.51	32.3	10.0	0.96	33/0/27	stable
Garrett Whitlock	SETUP	SU	2.15	29.4	4.0	0.97	2/24/7	stable
Erik Miller	SETUP	SU	2.89	35.2	13.8	0.86	4/13/7	stable
Greg Weissert	SETUP	MR	4.14	24.0	8.0	0.96	1/6/4	stable
Brayan Bello	BULK	LR	4.32	16.2	7.6	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up
Jovani Morán	OPENER	MR	4.48	26.1	12.0	1.53	0/5/6	ramping down
Alec Gamboa	MR	MR	3.13	18.0	7.0	1.60	1/1/5	ramping up
Wyatt Olds	unknown	MR	3.41	26.8	9.8	—	0/0/0	—
Raymond Burgos	unknown	MR	3.72	18.5	1.9	—	1/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 LAA · 5 BOS

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

LAA

2 R

6H · 1HR · 3BB · 15K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.270 · SLGe 0.303 · K% 40.5

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 5 ER · 6 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

BOS

5 R

9H · 2HR · 5BB · 6K · 20LOB

OBPe 0.378 · SLGe 0.531 · K% 16.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 15 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

LAA · standout lines

big nights

Moisés Ballesteros (1B) · 3-4 | HR, 2B, RBIHR · 3 H · 7 TB

tough nights

Zach Neto (SS) · 0-4 | HBP, K0-for-4
Vaughn Grissom (1B) · 0-3 | BB, 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K
Kyren Paris (LF) · 0-3 | 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K

BOS · standout lines

big nights

Adley Rutschman (C) · 1-4 | HR, K, 3 RBIHR
Jarren Duran (LF) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, KHR

tough nights

Trevor Story (SS) · 0-40-for-4