Baseball Daily

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today's slate

MIN @ DET

Monday · September 7, 2026·full·gamePk 824229free Saturday

refreshed 449h 14m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Comerica Park

gametime 3:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

79°F

humidity 47%

wind

7 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

clear

park

DET

open · HP→CF 150°

wind impact on total

-0.07 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Joe RyanRHP · MIN	Troy MeltonRHP · DET
xERA 2026	3.50	3.58
xwOBA 2026	0.290	0.293
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.009	-0.014
xERA 2025	3.43	3.64
xwOBA 2025	0.289	0.297
Outs/TB 25-26	2.00	2.33
FIP 25-26	3.60	4.14
kwERA 25-26	2.77	3.85
K% 25-26	27.4%	20.4%
BB% 25-26	5.4%	7.5%
IP 25+26 combined	296.7	148.0
ERA actual 2026	3.65	2.20
ERA (L4)	5.48	4.37
WHIP (L4)	1.30	1.28
K% (L4)	22.4%	17.7%
BB% (L4)	3.1%	3.1%
IP/gm (L4)	5.75	5.67
L4 window	07/05→07/29 (4 st)	08/09→09/01 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	105 (−3)	98 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.07 (+0.67)	4.58 (+0.41)
Arsenal RV/100	0.38	0.73

away arsenal — MIN

RV/100 0.38

4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.314
Sweeper—+0.30xwOBA 0.230
Split-Finger—+1.10xwOBA 0.275
Curveball—+0.70xwOBA 0.193
Sinker—-0.50xwOBA 0.372
Slider—-0.30xwOBA 0.408

home arsenal — DET

RV/100 0.73

4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.337
Cutter—+2.70xwOBA 0.281
Slider—-0.10xwOBA 0.283
Changeup—-0.90xwOBA 0.227
Sinker—+0.80xwOBA 0.304
Curveball—+2.00xwOBA 0.263

away · MIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.812

Σ match

2.729

Σ FRV

-21.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Luke Keaschall	0.314	0.294	-9.9
2	3B	Brooks Lee	0.276	0.273	-1.1
3	2B	Kody Clemens	0.339	0.322	-2.9
4	C	Ryan Jeffers	0.357	0.336	-3.3
5	DH	Josh Bell	0.331	0.328	-0.9
6	1B	Royce Lewis	0.315	0.291	-1.9
7	LF	Trevor Larnach	0.327	0.312	-2.1
8	SS	Kaelen Culpepper	0.313	0.298	+0.1
9	CF	Walker Jenkins	0.240	0.275	+0.2

home · DET vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.952

Σ match

2.829

Σ FRV

+11.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Colt Keith	0.335	0.318	-1.2
2	3B	Kevin McGonigle	0.350	0.338	-0.1
3	2B	Gleyber Torres	0.327	0.312	+0.4
4	LF	Riley Greene	0.369	0.349	-5.6
5	C	Dillon Dingler	0.343	0.331	+11.3
6	RF	Zach McKinstry	0.282	0.264	+10.0
7	1B	Spencer Torkelson	0.310	0.309	-6.6
8	CF	Max Clark	0.311	0.297	+3.2
9	SS	John Peck	0.325	0.310	-0.3

defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Ryan Jeffers

FRV-3.3
framing-0.4
blocking+0.2
throwing-3.1

defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)

Dillon Dingler

FRV+11.3
framing+6.7
blocking+2.5
throwing+2.2

MIN · Joe Ryan

Last outing 2026-07-29 vs KC · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	105
Location+	—	—	110
Pitching+	—	—	110
botOvr	—	—	59
SIERA	—	—	4.07

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-11 → 2026-07-29. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-07-29; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

DET · Troy Melton

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs MIN · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	108
Pitching+	—	—	106
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	4.58

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.48]

0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Kody Funderburk (4.50)

DET · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.34–0.57]

0.107 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: Yilber Díaz (5.88)

MIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yoendrys Gómez	CLOSER	CL	4.52	21.3	12.5	1.12	21/6/26	ramping down
Jeff Hoffman	SETUP	SU	2.46	34.3	9.4	0.94	5/17/16	stable
Kody Funderburk	SETUP	MR	3.95	20.0	12.5	0.94	1/11/1	stable
Taylor Rogers	SETUP	MR	4.15	18.9	11.3	0.82	2/9/10	stable
Andrew Morris	OPENER	MR	3.24	20.9	8.4	1.31	4/20/6	ramping down
A.J. Minter	MR	SU	3.69	22.1	4.1	1.00	0/7/8	stable
Tommy Nance	MR	MR	3.81	25.6	8.8	1.04	0/6/4	stable
Travis Adams	MR	LR	4.16	25.9	10.2	1.46	2/1/6	stable

DET

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kenley Jansen	CLOSER	CL	4.80	27.5	13.1	0.89	17/1/22	stable
Tyler Kinley	SETUP	MR	5.12	22.7	11.1	0.87	1/12/9	stable
Kyle Finnegan	SETUP	SU	5.32	17.9	13.2	1.05	2/14/3	stable
Tyler Holton	OPENER	SU	4.09	18.9	6.0	1.06	2/14/8	stable
Drew Sommers	MR	MR	2.49	37.3	9.0	0.63	0/11/1	stable
Brant Hurter	MR	MR	3.72	17.8	11.9	1.21	0/1/4	ramping up
Jacob Waguespack	MR	MR	5.39	15.5	10.6	1.30	0/4/4	stable
Beau Brieske	MR	MR	5.40	22.2	9.3	1.17	0/1/6	stable
Yilber Díaz	MOP_UP	LR	12.09	16.0	20.0	0.67	0/0/0	insufficient data

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 MIN · 5 DET

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIN

4 R

8H · 1HR · 6BB · 5K · 20LOB

OBPe 0.415 · SLGe 0.375 · K% 12.2

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 12 K · relief 4.0 IP · 2 arms

DET

5 R

8H · 2HR · 1BB · 12K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.306 · SLGe 0.485 · K% 33.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 5 K · relief 3.3 IP · 5 arms

MIN · standout lines

big nights

Trevor Larnach (LF) · 2-3 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Ryan Jeffers (C) · 0-4 | HBP, K, RBI0-for-4
Josh Bell (DH) · 0-4 | BB0-for-4
Royce Lewis (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

DET · standout lines

big nights

Kevin McGonigle (3B) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR
Riley Greene (LF) · 3-4 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR · 3 H

tough nights

Dillon Dingler (C) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Spencer Torkelson (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4