Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

AZ @ KC

Monday · September 7, 2026·full·gamePk 824062free Saturday

refreshed 450h 17m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Kauffman Stadium

gametime 2:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

91°F

humidity 52%

wind

11 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

+0.16 R/Gminor cross

Minor wind cross: +0.16 R/G vs neutral. _Open exposed bowl on prairie — summer south winds blow OUT to RF, plays huge_

opener / bulk pattern

AZ: Derek Law opens → bulk: no confident pattern

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Derek LawRHP · AZ	Noah CameronLHP · KC
xERA 2026	9.92	4.06
xwOBA 2026	0.450	0.311
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.168	-0.010
xERA 2025	—	4.10
xwOBA 2025	—	0.314
Outs/TB 25-26	2.80	2.14
FIP 25-26	3.09	3.91
kwERA 25-26	4.14	3.81
K% 25-26	15.8%	20.9%
BB% 25-26	5.3%	7.6%
IP 25+26 combined	4.7	292.7
ERA actual 2026	1.93	4.08
ERA (L4)	—	3.51
WHIP (L4)	—	0.94
K% (L4)	—	20.0%
BB% (L4)	—	6.0%
IP/gm (L4)	—	6.42
L4 window	—	08/10→09/02 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	94 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	5.83 (+1.67)
Arsenal RV/100	—	0.29

away arsenal · BULK Derek Law — AZ

RV/100 —

No Savant arsenal data.

home arsenal — KC

RV/100 0.29

4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.370
Changeup—+0.90xwOBA 0.283
Cutter—+0.90xwOBA 0.321
Curveball—+0.20xwOBA 0.230
Slider—-1.00xwOBA 0.323
Sinker—-2.50xwOBA 0.395

away · AZ vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.818

Σ match

2.834

Σ FRV

+29.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.328	0.323	+10.4
2	2B	Ketel Marte	0.349	0.351	+3.6
3	C	Gabriel Moreno	0.365	0.362	+8.2
4	3B	Nolan Arenado	0.283	0.298	+2.7
5	DH	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	0.277	0.281	-2.1
6	1B	Ildemaro Vargas	0.300	0.300	+2.5
7	RF	Tim Tawa	0.303	0.293	-0.7
8	CF	Jordan Lawlar	0.309	0.312	+0.9
9	LF	Ryan Waldschmidt	0.304	0.315	+3.6

home · KC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.508

Σ match

—

Σ FRV

+17.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	C	Carter Jensen	0.304	—	+1.7
2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0.385	—	+16.5
3	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0.328	—	+0.3
4	DH	Salvador Perez	0.309	—	-9.0
5	2B	Michael Massey	0.306	—	+5.1
6	3B	Nick Loftin	0.297	—	-1.2
7	RF	John Rave	0.316	—	+0.5
8	LF	Matthew Lugo	0.001	—	-0.0
9	CF	Kyle Isbel	0.262	—	+3.9

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

Gabriel Moreno

FRV+8.2
framing+4.7
blocking+1.5
throwing+2.0

defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carter Jensen

FRV+1.7
framing+2.4
blocking-2.7
throwing+2.0

AZ · Derek Law: no recent outing on file.

KC · Noah Cameron

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs MIA · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	94
Location+	—	—	99
Pitching+	—	—	101
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	5.83

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.36–0.50]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Blake Walston (5.40)

KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.41–0.55]

0.112 R/PA · 0.159 R/out · worst: Anthony Gose (6.03)

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	CL	2.36	31.9	6.2	0.83	5/16/6	stable
Juan Morillo	SETUP	CL	2.55	28.4	9.1	0.92	3/18/9	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	2.87	19.3	4.8	0.93	1/9/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	SU	3.37	25.3	6.6	0.93	3/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.82	15.6	4.9	1.00	0/13/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	MR	5.39	20.1	10.5	0.95	2/5/22	stable
Derek Law	unknown	MR	3.09	15.8	5.3	—	0/0/0	—
Blake Walston	unknown	LR	3.09	0.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Justin Martinez	unknown	MR	3.27	29.2	16.7	—	0/0/0	—
Gerardo Carrillo	unknown	MR	3.38	26.3	19.7	—	0/0/0	—

KC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Alex Lange	CLOSER	MR	4.74	22.6	11.1	1.03	10/3/20	stable
Connor Thomas	BULK	MR	6.98	14.9	9.5	3.67	0/2/0	insufficient data
Steven Cruz	OPENER	CL	5.14	25.9	8.6	1.06	6/5/7	stable
Jose Cuas	MR	MR	2.72	23.4	13.0	1.27	0/3/4	ramping down
Nolan Hoffman	MR	MR	3.67	13.2	10.5	1.56	0/0/2	insufficient data
Craig Kimbrel	MR	SU	4.07	21.6	10.8	1.03	1/2/15	stable
Easton McGee	MR	LR	6.57	19.1	10.6	1.00	0/0/2	insufficient data
Nate Pearson	unknown	MR	3.55	20.4	11.8	—	3/5/0	—
Anthony Gose	unknown	MR	3.65	0.0	5.3	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 AZ · 4 KC

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

AZ

5 R

10H · 0HR · 3BB · 12K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.317 · SLGe 0.270 · K% 29.3

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 3 ER · 8 K · relief 8.0 IP · 7 arms

KC

4 R

8H · 0HR · 4BB · 8K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.309 · SLGe 0.297 · K% 19.1

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 4 ER · 12 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

AZ · standout lines

tough nights

Jordan Lawlar (CF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

KC · standout lines

big nights

Salvador Perez (DH) · 3-5 | 2B, K, 3 RBI3 H · 4 TB

tough nights

Bobby Witt Jr. (SS) · 0-4 | HBP, K, R0-for-4
Michael Massey (2B) · 0-5 | K0-for-5
Nick Loftin (3B) · 0-5 | K0-for-5