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today's slate

CIN @ LAD

Monday · September 7, 2026·full·gamePk 823902free Saturday

refreshed 442h 15m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Dodger Stadium

gametime 9:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

83°F

humidity 59%

wind

5 mph

out to RF

precip

clear

park

LAD

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

+0.09 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Chase BurnsRHP · CIN	Emmet SheehanRHP · LAD
xERA 2026	3.23	3.98
xwOBA 2026	0.279	0.308
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.007	0.038
xERA 2025	3.48	3.00
xwOBA 2025	0.291	0.271
Outs/TB 25-26	2.17	2.04
FIP 25-26	3.02	3.95
kwERA 25-26	2.76	2.91
K% 25-26	30.4%	28.1%
BB% 25-26	8.5%	7.4%
IP 25+26 combined	188.7	168.7
ERA actual 2026	2.79	5.29
ERA (L4)	3.80	6.38
WHIP (L4)	1.36	1.36
K% (L4)	31.1%	26.5%
BB% (L4)	4.4%	6.0%
IP/gm (L4)	5.33	4.58
L4 window	08/14→08/30 (4 st)	07/12→08/02 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	111 (−1)	102 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	2.82 (−0.63)	3.69 (+0.03)
Arsenal RV/100	0.60	-0.52

away arsenal — CIN

RV/100 0.60

4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.328
Slider—+1.50xwOBA 0.204
Changeup—-5.10xwOBA 0.407

home arsenal — LAD

RV/100 -0.52

4-Seam Fastball—-1.20xwOBA 0.368
Slider—+0.60xwOBA 0.267
Changeup—-1.70xwOBA 0.294
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.254

away · CIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.764

Σ match

2.855

Σ FRV

-5.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Héctor Rodríguez	0.277	0.258	+0.2
2	SS	Elly De La Cruz	0.368	0.393	+4.6
3	1B	Sal Stewart	0.351	0.340	-4.3
4	LF	JJ Bleday	0.346	0.354	-0.4
5	C	Tyler Stephenson	0.335	0.337	-6.2
6	DH	Eugenio Suárez	0.290	0.299	-6.4
7	2B	Matt McLain	0.307	0.301	+3.2
8	CF	Carlos Jorge	0.181	0.261	+0.1
9	3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	0.309	0.312	+4.2

home · LAD vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.975

Σ match

2.803

Σ FRV

-2.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	0.401	0.341	—
2	1B	Freddie Freeman	0.372	0.334	+3.2
3	2B	Tommy Edman	0.316	0.275	+2.4
4	3B	Max Muncy	0.349	0.357	+2.7
5	LF	Teoscar Hernández	0.325	0.303	-6.2
6	RF	Kyle Tucker	0.326	0.310	-7.6
7	C	Hunter Feduccia	0.320	0.315	+0.8
8	CF	Alex Call	0.279	0.276	+0.8
9	SS	Alex Freeland	0.287	0.292	+1.0

defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Tyler Stephenson

FRV-6.2
framing-8.6
blocking+3.1
throwing-0.7

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Feduccia

FRV+0.8
framing+4.0
blocking-0.9
throwing-2.3

CIN · Chase Burns

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs CHC · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	111
Location+	—	—	102
Pitching+	—	—	114
botOvr	—	—	58
SIERA	—	—	2.82

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAD · Emmet Sheehan

Last outing 2026-08-02 vs BOS · 2.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	102
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	105
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	3.69

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-20 → 2026-08-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.37–0.48]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.70)

LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.30–0.47]

0.090 R/PA · 0.128 R/out · worst: Seth Halvorsen (5.30)

CIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Emilio Pagán	CLOSER	CL	4.70	24.3	6.6	0.91	22/0/15	stable
Graham Ashcraft	SETUP	MR	3.52	29.6	15.7	1.04	1/11/5	stable
Brock Burke	SETUP	SU	3.85	24.2	13.3	0.95	2/18/10	stable
Pierce Johnson	SETUP	MR	4.45	19.8	9.3	0.88	1/8/8	stable
Tony Santillan	SETUP	MR	6.88	19.2	13.4	0.91	5/11/11	stable
Luis Mey	MR	MR	3.36	32.2	13.6	1.24	0/4/0	ramping down
Tejay Antone	MR	SU	3.91	24.9	7.3	1.00	1/9/6	stable
Julian Garcia	MR	MR	4.66	25.0	9.9	1.62	2/3/2	stable

LAD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tanner Scott	CLOSER	CL	2.24	31.2	5.4	0.94	21/12/21	stable
Edgardo Henriquez	SETUP	SU	2.52	29.8	10.5	1.05	2/9/5	stable
Alex Vesia	SETUP	MR	3.42	29.9	14.5	0.76	3/18/6	stable
Blake Treinen	SETUP	MR	3.51	25.0	10.6	0.79	1/6/5	stable
Jack Dreyer	MR	MR	3.44	29.6	8.8	1.01	2/10/9	stable
Brock Stewart	MR	MR	3.78	23.2	11.0	1.06	1/7/2	stable
Evan Phillips	MR	SU	4.41	26.5	6.0	1.00	0/6/3	stable
Seth Halvorsen	MOP_UP	MR	6.13	15.7	14.8	0.90	0/2/4	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 CIN · 6 LAD

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CIN

3 R

7H · 2HR · 1BB · 14K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.229 · SLGe 0.382 · K% 40.0

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 3 ER · 9 K · relief 5.0 IP · 3 arms

LAD

6 R

3H · 1HR · 6BB · 9K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.286 · SLGe 0.259 · K% 25.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 14 K · relief 3.3 IP · 5 arms

CIN · standout lines

big nights

Elly De La Cruz (SS) · 2-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR
Eugenio Suárez (DH) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR

tough nights

Sal Stewart (1B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
JJ Bleday (LF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Tyler Stephenson (C) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

LAD · standout lines

big nights

Teoscar Hernández (LF) · 2-3 | HR, BB, KHR

tough nights

Shohei Ohtani (DH) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Tommy Edman (2B) · 0-40-for-4
Kyle Tucker (RF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4