Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

NYM @ MIA

Monday · September 7, 2026·full·gamePk 823820free Saturday

refreshed 451h 14m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · loanDepot park

gametime 1:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

82°F

humidity 88%

wind

6 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

13%

overcast

park

MIA

retractable · HP→CF 40°

wind impact on total

neutralnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

opener / bulk pattern

NYM: Jonah Tong opens → bulk: no confident pattern

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Jonah TongRHP · NYM	Eury PérezRHP · MIA
xERA 2026	4.01	4.04
xwOBA 2026	0.309	0.310
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.029	-0.010
xERA 2025	4.96	3.23
xwOBA 2025	0.342	0.281
Outs/TB 25-26	1.91	2.28
FIP 25-26	4.58	3.90
kwERA 25-26	4.23	3.37
K% 25-26	21.7%	26.6%
BB% 25-26	11.9%	9.7%
IP 25+26 combined	28.7	230.7
ERA actual 2026	3.60	3.72
ERA (L4)	5.14	5.79
WHIP (L4)	2.00	1.66
K% (L4)	13.2%	20.0%
BB% (L4)	15.8%	17.6%
IP/gm (L4)	3.50	4.67
L4 window	05/27→06/02 (2 outs)	08/16→09/02 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	98 (+0)	112 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.95 (+0.32)	5.78 (+1.76)
Arsenal RV/100	0.59	0.27

away arsenal · BULK Jonah Tong — NYM

RV/100 0.59

4-Seam Fastball—-0.70xwOBA 0.358
Changeup—+2.70xwOBA 0.121

home arsenal — MIA

RV/100 0.27

4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.326
Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.334
Slider—+0.70xwOBA 0.307
Sweeper—+0.80xwOBA 0.218
Changeup—-1.60xwOBA 0.296
Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.333

away · NYM vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.972

Σ match

2.973

Σ FRV

+2.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Francisco Lindor	0.338	0.336	-0.8
2	DH	Juan Soto	0.416	0.426	-3.2
3	3B	Bo Bichette	0.326	0.316	-1.6
4	RF	Carson Benge	0.336	0.333	+5.5
5	2B	Marcus Semien	0.306	0.308	-5.3
6	CF	A.J. Ewing	0.322	0.323	+6.8
7	C	Francisco Alvarez	0.326	0.322	+0.4
8	1B	Brett Baty	0.308	0.308	-0.2
9	LF	Nick Morabito	0.294	0.303	+1.2

home · MIA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.795

Σ match

2.662

Σ FRV

+18.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Kyle Stowers	0.336	0.268	-2.8
2	LF	Heriberto Hernández	0.355	0.330	+0.7
3	1B	Griffin Conine	0.370	0.352	-1.6
4	SS	Otto Lopez	0.324	0.345	+10.8
5	CF	Jakob Marsee	0.307	0.277	+3.6
6	2B	Javier Sanoja	0.288	0.280	+3.6
7	RF	Owen Caissie	0.294	0.296	-8.3
8	3B	Graham Pauley	0.231	0.234	+1.9
9	C	Joe Mack	0.290	0.280	+10.5

defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)

Francisco Alvarez

FRV+0.4
framing+1.4
blocking-1.6
throwing+0.6

defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)

Joe Mack

FRV+10.5
framing+5.6
blocking+0.4
throwing+4.5

NYM · Jonah Tong

Last outing 2026-06-02 vs SEA · 3.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 2
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	102
Pitching+	—	—	102
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	5.95

Last 2 outings: 2026-05-27 → 2026-06-02. 0/2 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-06-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIA · Eury Pérez

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs KC · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	112
Location+	—	—	77
Pitching+	—	—	86
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	5.78

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

NYM · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.30–0.51]

0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Jonah Tong (5.40)

MIA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.38–0.54]

0.109 R/PA · 0.154 R/out · worst: Josh Ekness (5.14)

NYM

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jonah Tong	BULK	MR	5.09	14.9	14.9	3.33	0/0/1	insufficient data
Kodai Senga	BULK	CL	5.90	25.5	14.7	3.39	6/0/1	ramping down
Austin Warren	OPENER	MR	4.32	25.8	10.8	1.35	0/1/9	stable
Tobias Myers	OPENER	MR	4.92	17.3	6.4	1.77	1/3/5	stable
Daniel Duarte	MR	SU	2.90	26.8	6.2	1.67	2/6/2	insufficient data
Jonathan Pintaro	MR	MR	4.82	24.8	12.4	2.47	0/1/2	ramping up
Chris Devenski	MOP_UP	MR	6.25	10.7	0.0	0.78	0/1/1	insufficient data
Nate Lavender	unknown	SU	1.47	33.3	6.7	—	0/8/0	—
Dedniel Núñez	unknown	MR	4.55	23.4	0.0	—	0/2/0	—

MIA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Calvin Faucher	SETUP	CL	2.94	25.1	12.7	0.98	3/15/7	stable
Michael Petersen	SETUP	SU	3.40	28.6	11.1	1.06	1/23/4	stable
Dax Fulton	BULK	MR	3.30	20.5	15.4	2.50	0/0/3	ramping down
Cade Gibson	MR	MR	4.21	18.6	10.6	1.28	0/4/7	stable
Victor Vodnik	MR	MR	4.25	16.2	12.2	1.08	4/6/12	stable
Tyler Zuber	MR	SU	4.57	25.2	5.6	0.87	1/8/5	stable
Josh Ekness	MR	MR	4.84	16.0	13.8	0.89	1/2/2	stable
Jack Ralston	unknown	MR	4.86	19.4	12.9	—	0/2/0	—
Bradley Blalock	unknown	LR	6.42	21.4	7.1	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

9 NYM · 4 MIA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

NYM

9 R

16H · 0HR · 6BB · 10K · 26LOB

OBPe 0.458 · SLGe 0.476 · K% 20.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 12 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

MIA

4 R

6H · 1HR · 2BB · 12K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.286 · SLGe 0.355 · K% 34.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 10 K · relief 5.0 IP · 4 arms

NYM · standout lines

big nights

Marcus Semien (2B) · 2-5 | 2 2B, RBI, 2 R4 TB
A.J. Ewing (CF) · 3-5 | 2B, 3 RBI, CS3 H · 4 TB

MIA · standout lines

big nights

Javier Sanoja (2B) · 2-3 | 3B, BB, RBI4 TB
Graham Pauley (3B) · 1-3 | HR, HBP, 2 KHR

tough nights

Kyle Stowers (DH) · 0-3 | HBP, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Heriberto Hernández (LF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Griffin Conine (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4