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CHC @ MIL

Monday · September 7, 2026·full·gamePk 823742free Saturday

refreshed 449h 18m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · American Family Field

gametime 2:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

78°F

humidity 59%

wind

10 mph

in from RF

precip

clear

park

MIL

retractable · HP→CF 137°

wind impact on total

neutralnone in

In wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Matthew BoydLHP · CHC	Robert GasserLHP · MIL
xERA 2026	4.86	4.15
xwOBA 2026	0.337	0.314
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.020	0.014
xERA 2025	3.74	4.96
xwOBA 2025	0.301	0.342
Outs/TB 25-26	2.14	1.80
FIP 25-26	3.98	4.51
kwERA 25-26	3.71	3.73
K% 25-26	20.4%	21.5%
BB% 25-26	6.4%	7.6%
IP 25+26 combined	282.0	92.3
ERA actual 2026	4.05	4.57
ERA (L4)	4.94	3.98
WHIP (L4)	1.23	1.43
K% (L4)	13.8%	22.0%
BB% (L4)	9.6%	7.7%
IP/gm (L4)	5.92	5.08
L4 window	08/09→09/01 (4 st)	08/01→09/01 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	95 (−1)	108 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.01 (+0.58)	4.13 (+0.00)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.01	-0.35

away arsenal — CHC

RV/100 -0.01

4-Seam Fastball—-0.70xwOBA 0.393
Changeup—+0.30xwOBA 0.324
Slider—+0.60xwOBA 0.241
Curveball—+1.00xwOBA 0.228

home arsenal — MIL

RV/100 -0.35

Sweeper—-1.40xwOBA 0.256
4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.262
Sinker—+1.00xwOBA 0.374
Cutter—+0.80xwOBA 0.392
Changeup—-2.90xwOBA 0.383

away · CHC vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.674

Σ match

2.891

Σ FRV

+51.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0.371	0.366	+26.3
2	DH	Seiya Suzuki	0.339	0.344	+6.5
3	3B	Alex Bregman	0.318	0.335	+5.9
4	LF	Tyrone Taylor	0.318	0.331	+1.1
5	SS	Nico Hoerner	0.324	0.341	+8.4
6	RF	Matt Shaw	0.307	0.308	+1.6
7	C	Carson Kelly	0.310	0.335	+1.5
8	1B	BJ Murray Jr.	0.098	0.241	—
9	2B	Pedro Ramírez	0.289	0.290	+0.2

home · MIL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.927

Σ match

3.059

Σ FRV

+26.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Jackson Chourio	0.333	0.348	+6.5
2	2B	Brice Turang	0.336	0.340	+11.3
3	C	William Contreras	0.333	0.342	-2.0
4	1B	Andrew Vaughn	0.337	0.391	-6.4
5	DH	Christian Yelich	0.317	0.330	+0.0
6	RF	Luis Lara	0.313	0.361	+1.4
7	SS	Cooper Pratt	0.313	0.315	+3.3
8	CF	Garrett Mitchell	0.350	0.338	+3.6
9	3B	Joey Ortiz	0.295	0.294	+8.7

defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carson Kelly

FRV+1.5
framing+2.0
blocking+1.4
throwing-1.9

defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)

William Contreras

FRV-2.0
framing-4.2
blocking-0.8
throwing+3.0

CHC · Matthew Boyd

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs MIL · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	95
Location+	—	—	104
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	5.01

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIL · Robert Gasser

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs CHC · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	108
Location+	—	—	96
Pitching+	—	—	99
botOvr	—	—	58
SIERA	—	—	4.13

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.37–0.50]

0.103 R/PA · 0.145 R/out · worst: Trent Thornton (4.69)

MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.37–0.46]

0.098 R/PA · 0.138 R/out · worst: Antonio Senzatela (4.13)

CHC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Daniel Palencia	CLOSER	SU	4.41	26.3	8.4	0.88	3/0/12	stable
Jacob Webb	SETUP	CL	3.76	25.7	8.3	0.98	9/8/14	stable
Ryan Zeferjahn	SETUP	SU	3.94	31.1	13.2	1.15	5/13/15	stable
Caleb Thielbar	SETUP	MR	5.04	29.1	9.0	0.85	3/7/6	stable
Ryan Rolison	OPENER	MR	3.98	22.3	10.7	1.12	2/7/13	stable
Trent Thornton	MR	MR	5.45	15.0	9.1	1.11	3/6/9	ramping down
Aaron Civale	SP	MR	4.67	18.4	6.9	4.67	2/0/0	ramping down
Colin Rea	SP	LR	4.89	17.3	8.2	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up

MIL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Trevor Megill	CLOSER	CL	1.64	29.5	6.7	0.97	26/7/21	stable
Abner Uribe	SETUP	SU	2.93	26.3	9.1	0.99	6/20/13	stable
Aaron Ashby	SETUP	SU	3.00	31.9	11.1	1.23	2/15/5	stable
JoJo Romero	SETUP	MR	4.26	22.1	8.8	0.98	0/21/4	stable
Grant Anderson	SETUP	LR	4.31	22.1	9.8	1.11	0/5/8	stable
Chad Patrick	SWING	MR	3.98	20.7	9.9	2.46	5/10/5	ramping down
Antonio Senzatela	MR	MR	3.63	19.4	8.8	1.61	3/10/11	ramping down
DL Hall	MR	MR	3.84	27.8	15.5	1.29	0/5/5	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 CHC · 4 MIL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CHC

3 R

6H · 2HR · 4BB · 6K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.289 · SLGe 0.406 · K% 15.8

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 9 K · relief 1.0 IP · 3 arms

MIL

4 R

6H · 0HR · 4BB · 9K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.303 · SLGe 0.259 · K% 27.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 K · relief 4.3 IP · 5 arms

CHC · standout lines

big nights

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF) · 2-4 | HR, HBP, RBIHR
Pedro Ramírez (2B) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Nico Hoerner (SS) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Carson Kelly (C) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

MIL · standout lines

tough nights

William Contreras (C) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Christian Yelich (DH) · 0-3 | 2 K, RBI0-for-3 · 2 K