Baseball Daily

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today's slate

ATL @ PHI

Monday · September 7, 2026·full·gamePk 823415free Saturday

refreshed 450h 23m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Citizens Bank Park

gametime 1:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

78°F

humidity 47%

wind

7 mph

in from RF

precip

clear

park

PHI

open · HP→CF 16°

wind impact on total

-0.15 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.15 R/G vs neutral. _Open bowl + short porches both sides + warm SW summer wind out to RF = launching pad_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Grant HolmesRHP · ATL	Jesús LuzardoLHP · PHI
xERA 2026	4.73	2.92
xwOBA 2026	0.333	0.266
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.021	0.016
xERA 2025	4.55	3.33
xwOBA 2025	0.329	0.285
Outs/TB 25-26	2.06	2.29
FIP 25-26	4.56	2.87
kwERA 25-26	4.06	2.79
K% 25-26	21.6%	29.2%
BB% 25-26	10.4%	7.4%
IP 25+26 combined	246.7	353.3
ERA actual 2026	3.62	3.02
ERA (L4)	4.58	1.32
WHIP (L4)	1.30	0.91
K% (L4)	12.3%	33.6%
BB% (L4)	8.2%	6.5%
IP/gm (L4)	4.42	6.83
L4 window	08/09→09/02 (4 st)	08/09→09/01 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	83 (−4)	110 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.84 (+0.12)	2.31 (−0.79)
Arsenal RV/100	0.27	0.92

away arsenal — ATL

RV/100 0.27

Slider—+0.80xwOBA 0.296
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.381
Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.405
Cutter—-1.30xwOBA 0.416
Curveball—-0.60xwOBA 0.241
Changeup—+1.30xwOBA 0.239

home arsenal — PHI

RV/100 0.92

Sweeper—+2.10xwOBA 0.180
4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.316
Changeup—-0.10xwOBA 0.298
Sinker—+1.70xwOBA 0.324

away · ATL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.840

Σ match

2.418

Σ FRV

+8.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.364	0.307	-4.2
2	C	Drake Baldwin	0.365	0.323	-0.4
3	2B	Ozzie Albies	0.284	0.234	-3.1
4	1B	Matt Olson	0.353	0.292	+7.5
5	RF	Lane Thomas	0.314	0.261	-3.7
6	CF	Michael Harris II	0.342	0.293	+10.3
7	LF	Mauricio Dubón	0.302	0.244	+5.0
8	3B	Austin Riley	0.300	0.244	-1.2
9	SS	Ha-Seong Kim	0.216	0.220	-1.7

home · PHI vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.917

Σ match

3.190

Σ FRV

-16.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Kyle Schwarber	0.367	0.396	-0.8
2	SS	Trea Turner	0.293	0.317	-8.3
3	RF	Bryce Harper	0.392	0.452	-11.1
4	2B	Luis Arraez	0.306	0.331	+10.0
5	1B	Alec Bohm	0.322	0.340	-5.9
6	3B	Bryson Stott	0.327	0.356	+5.2
7	LF	Brandon Marsh	0.306	0.344	-5.1
8	C	J.T. Realmuto	0.322	0.353	+1.2
9	CF	Justin Crawford	0.282	0.302	-1.4

defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)

Drake Baldwin

FRV-0.4
framing+2.4
blocking+0.2
throwing-3.1

defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)

J.T. Realmuto

FRV+1.2
framing+0.1
blocking-1.0
throwing+2.1

ATL · Grant Holmes

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs WSH · 3.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	83
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	91
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	4.84

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

PHI · Jesús Luzardo

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs AZ · 6.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	110
Location+	—	—	100
Pitching+	—	—	105
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	2.31

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.35R / inningband [0.27–0.44]

0.083 R/PA · 0.117 R/out · worst: Elieser Hernández (4.78)

PHI · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.37R / inningband [0.31–0.42]

0.087 R/PA · 0.123 R/out · worst: Orion Kerkering (4.02)

ATL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Raisel Iglesias	CLOSER	CL	3.20	25.7	7.5	1.04	31/0/29	stable
Dylan Lee	SETUP	SU	2.03	31.4	6.3	0.97	0/30/1	stable
Didier Fuentes	SETUP	SU	2.38	31.1	7.4	1.20	3/16/4	ramping down
Dylan Dodd	SETUP	MR	3.80	26.6	7.9	1.18	1/14/4	ramping down
Brent Suter	OPENER	MR	3.57	20.6	7.1	1.54	0/3/13	stable
Victor Mederos	MR	MR	2.95	23.3	9.2	1.87	1/1/4	ramping up
Ray Kerr	unknown	MR	4.09	15.8	2.6	—	0/1/0	—
Elieser Hernández	unknown	LR	4.65	17.9	12.8	—	1/0/0	—

PHI

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jhoan Duran	CLOSER	CL	1.33	34.1	4.3	0.94	30/0/35	stable
Jonathan Bowlan	SETUP	SU	3.24	31.6	6.6	0.93	2/13/2	stable
Brooks Raley	SETUP	MR	3.35	23.6	7.9	0.89	1/16/5	stable
José Alvarado	SETUP	MR	3.76	26.5	9.8	0.85	1/14/3	stable
Orion Kerkering	SETUP	SU	3.88	23.5	11.9	0.94	2/17/5	stable
Tim Mayza	OPENER	MR	3.22	24.5	6.2	1.15	0/1/9	stable
Chase Shugart	MR	LR	5.09	27.7	9.4	1.13	0/0/10	stable
Alex McFarlane	unknown	MR	3.60	22.9	10.4	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

0 ATL · 1 PHI

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

ATL

0 R

2H · 0HR · 1BB · 12K · 6LOB

OBPe 0.133 · SLGe 0.071 · K% 40.0

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 1 ER · 10 K · relief 2.0 IP · 2 arms

PHI

1 R

4H · 1HR · 2BB · 10K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.207 · SLGe 0.296 · K% 34.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 12 K · relief 0.0 IP · 1 arms

ATL · standout lines

tough nights

Drake Baldwin (C) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Ozzie Albies (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Lane Thomas (RF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

PHI · standout lines

big nights

Kyle Schwarber (DH) · 2-4 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

J.T. Realmuto (C) · 0-3 | 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K