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today's slate

WSH @ SD

Monday · September 7, 2026·full·gamePk 823254free Saturday

refreshed 444h 25m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Petco Park

gametime 5:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

94°F

humidity 42%

wind

9 mph

in from RF

precip

partly cloudy

park

open · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

-0.16 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.16 R/G vs neutral. _Petco's marine-cool air is the suppressor; wind from west onshore most days_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Jake IrvinRHP · WSH	Nick PivettaRHP · SD
xERA 2026	5.29	1.87
xwOBA 2026	0.350	0.212
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.011	0.036
xERA 2025	5.59	3.96
xwOBA 2025	0.360	0.309
Outs/TB 25-26	1.63	2.54
FIP 25-26	5.44	3.30
kwERA 25-26	4.28	2.99
K% 25-26	18.1%	27.2%
BB% 25-26	8.7%	7.1%
IP 25+26 combined	265.7	197.7
ERA actual 2026	5.57	4.50
ERA (L4)	4.87	—
WHIP (L4)	1.67	—
K% (L4)	22.3%	—
BB% (L4)	12.8%	—
IP/gm (L4)	5.08	—
L4 window	08/16→09/01 (4 st)	—
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	96 (−2)	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.38 (+0.99)	—
Arsenal RV/100	-0.49	1.94

away arsenal — WSH

RV/100 -0.49

4-Seam Fastball—-1.10xwOBA 0.391
Curveball—+2.20xwOBA 0.225
Sinker—-2.10xwOBA 0.485
Cutter—-0.20xwOBA 0.381
Sweeper—-2.90xwOBA 0.325
Changeup—+0.00xwOBA 0.225

home arsenal — SD

RV/100 1.94

4-Seam Fastball—+1.50xwOBA 0.231
Sweeper—+4.00xwOBA 0.094

away · WSH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.916

Σ match

2.174

Σ FRV

-4.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	James Wood	0.417	0.310	-7.2
2	1B	Abimelec Ortiz	0.293	0.236	-0.2
3	LF	Dylan Crews	0.307	0.227	+1.6
4	SS	CJ Abrams	0.329	0.245	-11.7
5	3B	Brady House	0.336	0.242	-2.0
6	DH	Daylen Lile	0.330	0.224	+3.0
7	C	Keibert Ruiz	0.286	0.213	+0.6
8	2B	Jorbit Vivas	0.298	0.221	+2.6
9	CF	Jacob Young	0.320	0.256	+9.0

home · SD vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.791

Σ match

3.258

Σ FRV

+24.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.375	0.422	+5.3
2	2B	Jake Cronenworth	0.271	0.320	-1.9
3	3B	Manny Machado	0.336	0.397	+5.0
4	1B	Ty France	0.332	0.371	+8.6
5	CF	Jackson Merrill	0.338	0.386	+8.5
6	DH	Luis Campusano	0.344	0.391	-4.4
7	LF	Dustin Harris	0.328	0.344	+0.5
8	SS	Xander Bogaerts	0.320	0.367	+3.4
9	C	Ethan Salas	0.147	0.260	-0.3

defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)

Keibert Ruiz

FRV+0.6
framing+2.5
blocking-0.0
throwing-1.9

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Ethan Salas

FRV-0.3
framing-0.4
blocking+0.1
throwing—

WSH · Jake Irvin

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs ATL · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	96
Location+	—	—	95
Pitching+	—	—	91
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	5.38

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SD · Nick Pivetta: no recent outing on file.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.28–0.57]

0.100 R/PA · 0.142 R/out · worst: Riley Cornelio (5.18)

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.34–0.47]

0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.52)

WSH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brad Lord	SETUP	MR	4.09	21.8	9.3	2.15	1/6/4	stable
Clayton Beeter	SETUP	CL	5.61	22.4	15.4	0.96	12/8/11	stable
Matt Waldron	BULK	LR	4.59	17.0	5.7	3.58	0/1/1	ramping down
Will Dion	MR	LR	4.11	28.5	7.6	1.79	0/0/6	ramping down
Yovanny Cruz	MR	MR	4.59	22.7	13.6	1.44	0/1/1	insufficient data
Riley Cornelio	MR	MR	4.99	21.5	19.6	2.04	0/0/2	ramping down
Jared Simpson	unknown	MR	1.09	37.5	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Erik Tolman	unknown	MR	1.86	33.3	11.1	—	1/1/0	—
Jack Sinclair	unknown	MR	3.09	42.9	14.3	—	0/0/0	—
Luis Perales	unknown	MR	8.69	17.9	14.3	—	0/0/0	—

SD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Mason Miller	CLOSER	CL	0.98	48.5	9.2	1.04	33/0/34	stable
Adrian Morejon	SETUP	SU	2.45	29.7	7.6	1.16	2/22/6	stable
Kyle Hart	SETUP	MR	3.23	23.2	8.0	1.40	0/7/5	stable
Bradgley Rodriguez	OPENER	SU	2.36	26.6	6.8	1.09	2/12/5	stable
Wandy Peralta	OPENER	MR	4.05	15.4	8.1	1.17	0/4/14	stable
David Morgan	MR	MR	4.13	24.0	12.8	1.22	0/1/5	stable
Yuki Matsui	MR	MR	4.14	27.1	14.2	1.35	0/8/5	ramping down
Griffin Canning	SP	MR	4.78	22.7	10.5	4.24	0/1/0	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 WSH · 3 SD

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

WSH

2 R

5H · 1HR · 0BB · 8K · 5LOB

OBPe 0.156 · SLGe 0.281 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 3 ER · 4 K · relief 2.3 IP · 3 arms

SD

3 R

9H · 0HR · 3BB · 4K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.371 · SLGe 0.355 · K% 11.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 8 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

WSH · standout lines

big nights

Dylan Crews (LF) · 2-4 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR

tough nights

CJ Abrams (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Brady House (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Daylen Lile (DH) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

SD · standout lines

big nights

Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF) · 3-4 | K, R, SB3 H
Jackson Merrill (CF) · 3-4 | 2B, 2 RBI, SB3 H · 4 TB

tough nights

Jake Cronenworth (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4