Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

STL @ SF

Monday · September 7, 2026·full·gamePk 823175free Saturday

refreshed 444h 15m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oracle Park

gametime 8:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

75°F

humidity 45%

wind

13 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

open · HP→CF 91°

wind impact on total

+0.43 R/Gmoderate out

Moderate wind out: +0.43 R/G vs neutral. _Oracle Park — the famous wind park. McCovey Cove wind blows IN HARD from west most days, suppresses HR violently. Calm summer warm games (rare) let ball fly to LF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Michael McGreevyRHP · STL	Logan WebbRHP · SF
xERA 2026	5.36	4.06
xwOBA 2026	0.352	0.311
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.033	-0.021
xERA 2025	4.64	3.58
xwOBA 2025	0.332	0.295
Outs/TB 25-26	1.83	2.13
FIP 25-26	4.29	2.95
kwERA 25-26	4.21	3.29
K% 25-26	15.9%	23.2%
BB% 25-26	6.0%	5.7%
IP 25+26 combined	243.0	356.7
ERA actual 2026	3.97	4.21
ERA (L4)	5.82	5.32
WHIP (L4)	1.66	1.18
K% (L4)	16.8%	17.2%
BB% (L4)	7.9%	4.3%
IP/gm (L4)	5.42	5.50
L4 window	08/09→09/01 (4 st)	08/09→09/01 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	79 (−2)	98 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.89 (+0.35)	5.06 (+1.07)
Arsenal RV/100	0.01	0.83

away arsenal — STL

RV/100 0.01

4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.391
Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.311
Sinker—+2.00xwOBA 0.316
Curveball—+0.20xwOBA 0.269
Cutter—+0.00xwOBA 0.399
Sweeper—-2.60xwOBA 0.443
Slider—-1.00xwOBA 0.388

home arsenal — SF

RV/100 0.83

Sinker—+1.90xwOBA 0.359
Changeup—-0.40xwOBA 0.293
Sweeper—+1.00xwOBA 0.296
4-Seam Fastball—+1.40xwOBA 0.255
Cutter—-0.10xwOBA 0.301

away · STL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.923

Σ match

2.884

Σ FRV

-5.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Bryan Torres	0.298	0.298	+2.7
2	C	Iván Herrera	0.332	0.329	-4.6
3	1B	Alec Burleson	0.373	0.374	+4.6
4	RF	Jordan Walker	0.347	0.353	-8.4
5	DH	Leo Bernal	0.365	0.337	-0.9
6	3B	Nolan Gorman	0.276	0.267	+0.8
7	LF	Joshua Báez	0.337	0.329	-1.6
8	SS	Thomas Saggese	0.313	0.315	+0.8
9	CF	Nathan Church	0.282	0.282	+0.9

home · SF vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.661

Σ match

3.010

Σ FRV

-14.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Turner Hill	0.346	0.370	-0.7
2	DH	Rafael Devers	0.339	0.384	-4.8
3	1B	Bryce Eldridge	0.356	0.411	+0.6
4	CF	Jonah Cox	0.273	0.304	+1.5
5	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0.316	0.356	-5.4
6	2B	Osleivis Basabe	0.273	0.303	-4.7
7	C	Andrew Knizner	0.271	0.308	-2.7
8	3B	Shay Whitcomb	0.251	0.303	-0.7
9	SS	Christian Koss	0.236	0.270	+2.1

defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)

Iván Herrera

FRV-4.6
framing-1.0
blocking+0.3
throwing-3.9

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Andrew Knizner

FRV-2.7
framing-1.5
blocking-0.3
throwing-0.8

STL · Michael McGreevy

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs LAD · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	79
Location+	—	—	106
Pitching+	—	—	92
botOvr	—	—	47
SIERA	—	—	4.89

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SF · Logan Webb

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs PIT · 2.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	102
Pitching+	—	—	104
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	5.06

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

STL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.27–0.63]

0.106 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Justin Bruihl (4.62)

SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.40–0.57]

0.114 R/PA · 0.161 R/out · worst: Carson Seymour (4.72)

STL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Riley O'Brien	CLOSER	CL	3.56	23.2	9.8	0.99	36/1/33	stable
Justin Bruihl	SETUP	MR	4.04	15.0	8.5	1.11	0/10/5	ramping up
Ryne Stanek	SETUP	SU	4.68	24.6	11.7	0.89	2/25/5	stable
George Soriano	SETUP	SU	4.80	23.3	11.3	0.98	3/21/7	stable
Brycen Mautz	BULK	MR	6.53	22.9	14.6	3.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Gordon Graceffo	MR	MR	3.96	18.1	11.0	1.18	1/6/10	stable
Luis Gastelum	MR	MR	4.45	30.3	8.4	1.00	0/1/1	stable
Cooper Hjerpe	unknown	LR	0.09	50.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Cade Winquest	unknown	MR	2.42	21.7	8.7	—	0/1/0	—

SF

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Joel Kuhnel	SETUP	MR	5.35	14.0	7.9	1.01	6/6/16	stable
Dylan Smith	MR	CL	3.34	29.7	10.9	0.88	4/7/5	stable
Jason Foley	MR	SU	3.67	15.2	8.9	1.00	0/2/0	insufficient data
Reiver Sanmartin	MR	MR	4.49	18.1	7.2	1.67	0/3/1	insufficient data
Carson Seymour	MR	MR	5.96	16.0	10.4	2.17	1/6/0	insufficient data
Trent Harris	unknown	SU	1.66	32.2	10.2	—	0/3/0	—
Braxton Roxby	unknown	MR	2.59	18.2	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Matt Wilkinson	unknown	MR	6.36	12.5	6.2	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 STL · 5 SF

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

STL

4 R

9H · 1HR · 5BB · 11K · 24LOB

OBPe 0.298 · SLGe 0.317 · K% 23.4

Their pitching

10.3 IP · 2 ER · 6 K · relief 3.7 IP · 5 arms

SF

5 R

10H · 0HR · 5BB · 6K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.341 · SLGe 0.361 · K% 13.6

Their pitching

11.0 IP · 2 ER · 11 K · relief 5.0 IP · 5 arms

STL · standout lines

big nights

Alec Burleson (1B) · 1-5 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR

tough nights

Nolan Gorman (3B) · 0-4 | BB, K, R0-for-4

SF · standout lines

big nights

Rafael Devers (DH) · 2-3 | 2 2B, 2 BB, RBI4 TB

tough nights

Turner Hill (LF) · 0-4 | BB, 2 R0-for-4