Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

BOS @ BAL

Sunday · September 6, 2026·full·gamePk 824794free Saturday

refreshed 474h 53m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oriole Park at Camden Yards

gametime 1:35 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

82°F

humidity 42%

wind

3 mph

in from CF

precip

mostly clear

park

BAL

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

-0.10 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.10 R/G vs neutral. _Inner Harbor breeze — wind in from RF cools HR rate in early season; warmer summer = ball flies_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Payton TolleLHP · BOS	Kyle BradishRHP · BAL
xERA 2026	2.73	4.30
xwOBA 2026	0.257	0.319
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.031	0.013
xERA 2025	4.67	3.09
xwOBA 2025	0.333	0.275
Outs/TB 25-26	2.08	2.06
FIP 25-26	3.60	3.80
kwERA 25-26	2.99	3.64
K% 25-26	27.5%	24.4%
BB% 25-26	7.4%	9.7%
IP 25+26 combined	147.3	180.0
ERA actual 2026	3.23	4.01
ERA (L4)	4.09	5.06
WHIP (L4)	1.09	1.64
K% (L4)	37.1%	15.8%
BB% (L4)	6.7%	8.4%
IP/gm (L4)	5.50	5.33
L4 window	08/07→08/31 (4 st)	08/08→09/01 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	113 (−2)	104 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.29 (+0.85)	4.24 (−0.14)
Arsenal RV/100	0.59	-0.19

away arsenal — BOS

RV/100 0.59

4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.255
Sinker—-0.30xwOBA 0.307
Cutter—+1.90xwOBA 0.252
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.152
Changeup—-0.80xwOBA 0.348

home arsenal — BAL

RV/100 -0.19

Sinker—+0.60xwOBA 0.315
Slider—-1.10xwOBA 0.321
Curveball—-0.70xwOBA 0.262
4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.387

away · BOS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.803

Σ match

2.925

Σ FRV

+10.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Roman Anthony	0.361	0.369	+0.5
2	1B	Mickey Gasper	0.372	0.392	-3.1
3	C	Adley Rutschman	0.338	0.341	+10.7
4	SS	Trevor Story	0.251	0.279	-1.7
5	2B	Nick Sogard	0.327	0.326	+1.4
6	3B	Caleb Durbin	0.288	0.296	+4.6
7	LF	Jarren Duran	0.296	0.325	+3.5
8	DH	Andruw Monasterio	0.299	0.308	-9.9
9	CF	Eli White	0.271	0.287	+4.4

home · BAL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.740

Σ match

2.519

Σ FRV

+3.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Blaze Alexander	0.356	0.294	-5.5
2	1B	Pete Alonso	0.392	0.343	-2.3
3	DH	Coby Mayo	0.319	0.285	-2.0
4	3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0.343	0.287	+2.6
5	SS	Gunnar Henderson	0.316	0.272	+1.4
6	LF	Rece Hinds	0.155	0.249	+0.4
7	RF	Leody Taveras	0.273	0.254	-2.0
8	C	Carlos Narváez	0.265	0.226	+4.6
9	CF	Colton Cowser	0.321	0.309	+6.2

defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)

Adley Rutschman

FRV+10.7
framing+6.2
blocking+0.8
throwing+3.6

defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)

Carlos Narváez

FRV+4.6
framing+2.3
blocking+2.8
throwing-0.5

BOS · Payton Tolle

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs SEA · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	113
Location+	—	—	102
Pitching+	—	—	112
botOvr	—	—	59
SIERA	—	—	4.29

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-31; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

BAL · Kyle Bradish

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs COL · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	104
Location+	—	—	100
Pitching+	—	—	101
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	4.24

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.46]

0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Brayan Bello (4.37)

BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.33–0.44]

0.090 R/PA · 0.128 R/out · worst: Cam Sanders (3.96)

BOS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Aroldis Chapman	CLOSER	CL	2.59	32.0	10.2	0.96	32/0/27	stable
Garrett Whitlock	SETUP	SU	2.15	29.4	4.0	0.97	2/24/7	stable
Erik Miller	SETUP	SU	2.98	34.7	14.0	0.86	4/12/7	stable
Greg Weissert	SETUP	MR	4.14	24.0	8.0	0.96	1/6/4	stable
Brayan Bello	BULK	LR	4.32	16.2	7.6	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up
Jovani Morán	OPENER	MR	4.54	26.0	12.2	1.53	0/4/6	ramping down
Alec Gamboa	MR	MR	3.13	18.0	7.0	1.60	1/1/5	ramping up
Wyatt Olds	unknown	MR	3.41	26.8	9.8	—	0/0/0	—
Raymond Burgos	unknown	MR	3.72	18.5	1.9	—	1/0/0	—

BAL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yennier Cano	SETUP	SU	2.71	22.3	5.4	0.74	3/13/6	stable
Grant Wolfram	SETUP	MR	2.93	25.8	7.2	0.80	1/12/3	stable
Andrew Kittredge	SETUP	CL	3.63	18.9	5.6	0.87	9/9/11	stable
Rico Garcia	SETUP	CL	4.07	26.2	8.4	0.93	6/18/16	stable
Alex Hoppe	MR	MR	3.04	24.8	9.7	1.14	1/5/13	stable
Josh Walker	MR	MR	3.41	24.5	8.5	1.20	0/3/3	ramping down
Cam Sanders	MR	MR	3.62	27.8	15.7	1.00	3/1/5	stable
Luis De León	unknown	MR	8.49	25.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 BOS · 1 BAL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

BOS

3 R

4H · 1HR · 5BB · 11K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.263 · SLGe 0.250 · K% 28.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 17 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

BAL

1 R

5H · 0HR · 0BB · 17K · 4LOB

OBPe 0.161 · SLGe 0.258 · K% 54.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 11 K · relief 5.0 IP · 5 arms

BOS · standout lines

big nights

Eli White (CF) · 2-4 | HR, 3 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Roman Anthony (RF) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Nick Sogard (1B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Jarren Duran (LF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

BAL · standout lines

tough nights

Blaze Alexander (2B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Colton Cowser (CF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K