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today's slate

MIN @ CWS

Sunday · September 6, 2026·full·gamePk 824552free Saturday

refreshed 468h 59m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Rate Field

gametime 6:20 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

74°F

humidity 62%

wind

13 mph

in from CF

precip

overcast

park

CWS

open · HP→CF 38°

wind impact on total

-0.40 R/Gmoderate in

Moderate wind in: -0.40 R/G vs neutral. _Open bowl on south side; Chicago summer wind off the lake can swirl_

opener / bulk pattern

CWS: Bryan Hudson opens → bulk: Erick Fedde· predicted bulk based on 3/60 prior short outings

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Bailey OberRHP · MIN	Bryan HudsonLHP · opener · CWS	Erick FeddeRHP · bulk · CWS
xERA 2026	4.63	2.95	4.63
xwOBA 2026	0.330	0.267	0.330
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.013	0.020	-0.001
xERA 2025	4.36	4.64	5.37
xwOBA 2025	0.323	0.332	0.354
Outs/TB 25-26	1.65	2.31	1.78
FIP 25-26	4.78	3.61	5.14
kwERA 25-26	3.91	3.74	4.79
K% 25-26	18.1%	22.8%	14.7%
BB% 25-26	5.6%	9.0%	9.7%
IP 25+26 combined	259.7	74.3	269.3
ERA actual 2026	4.37	3.03	4.00
ERA (L4)	4.64	5.79	2.95
WHIP (L4)	1.36	0.86	1.04
K% (L4)	12.1%	16.7%	22.2%
BB% (L4)	5.5%	0.0%	4.2%
IP/gm (L4)	5.33	1.17	4.58
L4 window	08/06→08/23 (4 st)	06/14→08/18 (4 st)	07/20→09/04 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	87 (−5)	108 (+2)	88 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.03 (+0.24)	3.95 (+0.34)	4.07 (−0.67)
Arsenal RV/100	0.07	0.33	-0.26

away arsenal — MIN

RV/100 0.07

Changeup—-1.00xwOBA 0.357
4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.350
Slider—+0.90xwOBA 0.287
Sweeper—+3.20xwOBA 0.168
Sinker—-4.00xwOBA 0.578

home arsenal · BULK Erick Fedde — CWS

RV/100 -0.26

Sweeper—+1.00xwOBA 0.291
Sinker—-0.40xwOBA 0.354
Cutter—-1.20xwOBA 0.383
Changeup—-2.30xwOBA 0.324

away · MIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.837

Σ match

3.091

Σ FRV

-21.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Luke Keaschall	0.315	0.333	-9.8
2	3B	Brooks Lee	0.274	0.317	-1.5
3	C	Ryan Jeffers	0.356	0.384	-2.8
4	DH	Josh Bell	0.333	0.338	-0.9
5	2B	Kody Clemens	0.341	0.355	-3.0
6	1B	Royce Lewis	0.316	0.373	-2.2
7	LF	Trevor Larnach	0.329	0.366	-1.5
8	SS	Kaelen Culpepper	0.320	0.330	-0.1
9	CF	Walker Jenkins	0.253	0.294	+0.2

home · CWS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.925

Σ match

2.983

Σ FRV

+11.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Sam Antonacci	0.342	0.335	-8.5
2	3B	Miguel Vargas	0.386	0.406	-4.4
3	1B	Munetaka Murakami	0.350	0.364	-1.6
4	DH	Andrew Benintendi	0.310	0.319	-1.6
5	SS	Colson Montgomery	0.307	0.298	+8.4
6	RF	Braden Montgomery	0.329	0.342	+0.8
7	CF	Tristan Peters	0.319	0.329	+10.0
8	2B	Chase Meidroth	0.292	0.297	+9.3
9	C	Kyle Teel	0.290	0.291	-1.3

defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Ryan Jeffers

FRV-2.8
framing-0.2
blocking+0.1
throwing-2.7

defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)

Kyle Teel

FRV-1.3
framing-1.1
blocking-1.1
throwing+0.8

MIN · Bailey Ober

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs SD · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	87
Location+	—	—	107
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	5.03

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CWS · Erick Fedde

Last outing 2026-09-04 vs MIN · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	88
Location+	—	—	116
Pitching+	—	—	105
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	4.07

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-26 → 2026-09-04. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.32–0.48]

0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Kody Funderburk (4.48)

CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.38–0.50]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Tyler Schweitzer (4.96)

MIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yoendrys Gómez	CLOSER	CL	4.52	21.3	12.5	1.12	21/6/26	ramping down
Jeff Hoffman	SETUP	SU	2.46	34.3	9.4	0.94	5/17/16	stable
Kody Funderburk	SETUP	MR	3.94	19.9	12.2	0.94	1/11/1	stable
Taylor Rogers	SETUP	MR	4.09	18.9	11.2	0.82	2/9/10	stable
Andrew Morris	OPENER	MR	3.18	21.1	7.9	1.31	4/20/6	ramping down
Garrett Acton	MR	MR	2.06	28.9	6.7	1.67	0/0/3	ramping down
Tommy Nance	MR	MR	3.65	25.2	9.0	1.04	0/6/4	stable
A.J. Minter	MR	SU	3.69	22.1	4.1	1.00	0/7/8	stable
Travis Adams	MR	LR	4.16	25.9	10.2	1.46	2/1/6	stable

CWS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sean Newcomb	SETUP	SU	2.88	22.4	8.5	1.51	4/11/6	ramping up
Grant Taylor	OPENER	CL	2.47	32.3	8.6	1.33	8/10/11	stable
Bryan Hudson	OPENER	CL	3.17	22.2	6.9	0.98	7/9/8	stable
Jordan Hicks	MR	MR	4.00	27.4	15.3	0.91	1/8/6	stable
José Urquidy	MR	LR	4.01	17.5	5.3	1.27	1/0/4	ramping down
Tyler Davis	MR	MR	4.06	20.2	14.0	1.10	1/0/6	stable
Trevor Richards	MR	MR	4.14	22.1	7.8	1.46	1/1/16	stable
Tyler Schweitzer	MR	MR	4.34	12.5	8.8	1.86	1/2/6	ramping up
Hagen Smith	unknown	MR	3.47	35.8	18.9	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 MIN · 10 CWS

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIN

1 R

4H · 1HR · 1BB · 15K · 6LOB

OBPe 0.161 · SLGe 0.233 · K% 48.4

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 10 ER · 12 K · relief 3.7 IP · 6 arms

CWS

10 R

12H · 2HR · 10BB · 12K · 31LOB

OBPe 0.479 · SLGe 0.622 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 15 K · relief 7.3 IP · 5 arms

MIN · standout lines

big nights

Brooks Lee (3B) · 2-3 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Luke Keaschall (RF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Josh Bell (DH) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Trevor Larnach (LF) · 0-3 | 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K

CWS · standout lines

big nights

Sam Antonacci (LF) · 3-4 | 3 2B, 2 RBI, 2 R3 H · 6 TB
Randal Grichuk (DH) · 2-2 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR
Tristan Peters (LF) · 3-5 | 2 2B, RBI, 3 R3 H · 5 TB
Kyle Teel (C) · 1-5 | HR, 2 K, 3 RBIHR

tough nights

Colson Montgomery (3B) · 0-4 | BB, 4 K, R0-for-4 · 4 K