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today's slate

MIL @ CIN

Sunday · September 6, 2026·full·gamePk 824469free Saturday

refreshed 475h 20m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Great American Ball Park

gametime 12:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

77°F

humidity 56%

wind

9 mph

in from CF

precip

clear

park

CIN

open · HP→CF 24°

wind impact on total

-0.27 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.27 R/G vs neutral. _Great American small dimensions amplify any wind-out signal; SW summer winds out to RF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Kyle HarrisonLHP · MIL	Brady SingerRHP · CIN
xERA 2026	3.52	5.02
xwOBA 2026	0.291	0.342
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.023	0.012
xERA 2025	4.16	4.27
xwOBA 2025	0.316	0.320
Outs/TB 25-26	1.85	1.82
FIP 25-26	3.85	4.46
kwERA 25-26	2.90	3.84
K% 25-26	27.9%	20.8%
BB% 25-26	7.1%	7.8%
IP 25+26 combined	142.7	311.3
ERA actual 2026	3.45	4.83
ERA (L4)	8.84	5.32
WHIP (L4)	1.96	1.68
K% (L4)	21.1%	16.3%
BB% (L4)	8.9%	4.8%
IP/gm (L4)	4.58	5.50
L4 window	08/11→08/31 (4 st)	08/09→08/31 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	104 (−2)	90 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.17 (+0.98)	4.68 (+0.30)
Arsenal RV/100	0.30	-0.84

away arsenal — MIL

RV/100 0.30

4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.304
Slurve—+1.60xwOBA 0.232
Changeup—-2.90xwOBA 0.353

home arsenal — CIN

RV/100 -0.84

Sinker—-0.20xwOBA 0.356
Slider—-0.40xwOBA 0.315
Sweeper—-1.50xwOBA 0.285
Cutter—-3.80xwOBA 0.441
4-Seam Fastball—-7.00xwOBA 0.474

away · MIL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.872

Σ match

3.207

Σ FRV

+3.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Sal Frelick	0.287	0.310	-2.2
2	DH	Christian Yelich	0.314	0.337	+0.0
3	LF	Jackson Chourio	0.334	0.365	+4.7
4	1B	Jake Bauers	0.373	0.409	-9.0
5	CF	Garrett Mitchell	0.346	0.408	+3.3
6	2B	Brice Turang	0.335	0.373	+11.2
7	SS	Cooper Pratt	0.313	0.362	+2.8
8	C	Bo Naylor	0.295	0.319	-1.5
9	3B	David Hamilton	0.275	0.324	-6.3

home · CIN vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.824

Σ match

2.678

Σ FRV

-12.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Dane Myers	0.311	0.274	-1.3
2	DH	Elly De La Cruz	0.364	0.362	+4.6
3	1B	Sal Stewart	0.351	0.320	-3.6
4	C	Tyler Stephenson	0.335	0.326	-6.2
5	3B	Eugenio Suárez	0.290	0.293	-6.6
6	LF	JJ Bleday	0.349	0.335	-0.5
7	SS	Matt McLain	0.307	0.283	+2.6
8	2B	Juan Brito	0.242	0.240	-1.4
9	RF	Héctor Rodríguez	0.275	0.246	-0.4

defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)

Bo Naylor

FRV-1.5
framing-0.5
blocking-0.2
throwing-0.8

defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Tyler Stephenson

FRV-6.2
framing-8.6
blocking+3.0
throwing-0.7

MIL · Kyle Harrison

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs CHC · 3.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	104
Location+	—	—	111
Pitching+	—	—	113
botOvr	—	—	59
SIERA	—	—	4.17

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-31; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CIN · Brady Singer

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs SD · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	90
Location+	—	—	100
Pitching+	—	—	89
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	4.68

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.37–0.46]

0.097 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Chad Patrick (4.10)

CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.37–0.48]

0.100 R/PA · 0.142 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.70)

MIL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Trevor Megill	CLOSER	CL	1.63	29.5	6.7	0.97	26/7/21	stable
Abner Uribe	SETUP	SU	2.97	25.9	9.1	0.99	6/20/13	stable
Aaron Ashby	SETUP	SU	3.00	31.9	11.1	1.23	2/15/5	stable
JoJo Romero	SETUP	MR	4.18	22.3	8.1	0.98	0/21/4	stable
Grant Anderson	SETUP	LR	4.33	22.3	9.4	1.11	0/5/8	stable
Chad Patrick	SWING	MR	3.98	20.7	9.9	2.46	5/10/5	ramping down
Antonio Senzatela	MR	MR	3.57	19.4	8.3	1.61	3/10/11	ramping down
DL Hall	MR	MR	3.84	27.8	15.5	1.29	0/5/5	stable

CIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Emilio Pagán	CLOSER	CL	4.71	24.5	6.6	0.91	21/0/15	stable
Graham Ashcraft	SETUP	SU	3.46	29.4	14.7	1.04	1/10/5	stable
Brock Burke	SETUP	SU	3.86	24.6	13.5	0.95	2/17/10	stable
Pierce Johnson	SETUP	MR	4.32	20.3	8.5	0.88	1/8/8	stable
Tony Santillan	SETUP	MR	6.88	19.2	13.4	0.91	5/11/11	stable
Luis Mey	MR	MR	3.45	32.2	13.9	1.24	0/3/0	ramping down
Tejay Antone	MR	SU	3.91	24.9	7.3	1.00	1/9/6	stable
Julian Garcia	MR	MR	4.66	25.0	9.9	1.62	2/3/2	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

8 MIL · 12 CIN

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIL

8 R

7H · 1HR · 10BB · 6K · 20LOB

OBPe 0.386 · SLGe 0.394 · K% 13.6

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 8 ER · 9 K · relief 4.3 IP · 5 arms

CIN

12 R

14H · 1HR · 10BB · 9K · 31LOB

OBPe 0.490 · SLGe 0.526 · K% 18.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 8 ER · 6 K · relief 4.0 IP · 6 arms

MIL · standout lines

big nights

Jake Bauers (RF) · 1-2 | HR, 3 BB, 2 RBIHR
Garrett Mitchell (CF) · 2-3 | 3B, RBI, 2 R4 TB

tough nights

Sal Frelick (CF) · 0-5 | K0-for-5
Jackson Chourio (LF) · 0-4 | BB, K, 2 R0-for-4

CIN · standout lines

big nights

Elly De La Cruz (DH) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, 2 BBHR · 4 RBI
Juan Brito (2B) · 3-4 | 2B, BB, RBI3 H · 4 TB
Héctor Rodríguez (RF) · 3-5 | K, RBI, 2 R3 H

tough nights

Eugenio Suárez (3B) · 0-3 | 2 BB, 2 K, R0-for-3 · 2 K
JJ Bleday (RF) · 0-5 | K0-for-5