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today's slate

DET @ CLE

Sunday · September 6, 2026·full·gamePk 824385free Saturday

refreshed 475h 49m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Progressive Field

gametime 1:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

76°F

humidity 58%

wind

11 mph

in from CF

precip

mostly clear

park

CLE

open · HP→CF 25°

wind impact on total

-0.31 R/Gmoderate in

Moderate wind in: -0.31 R/G vs neutral. _Lake Erie wind in from LF in spring/fall — kills LH HR; summer flattens_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Jackson JobeRHP · DET	Gavin WilliamsRHP · CLE
xERA 2026	5.65	3.84
xwOBA 2026	0.360	0.303
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.001	-0.009
xERA 2025	4.90	4.30
xwOBA 2025	0.340	0.321
Outs/TB 25-26	1.81	2.17
FIP 25-26	5.23	3.99
kwERA 25-26	4.62	3.12
K% 25-26	18.0%	28.7%
BB% 25-26	11.5%	9.7%
IP 25+26 combined	72.3	330.7
ERA actual 2026	4.63	3.81
ERA (L4)	5.89	5.89
WHIP (L4)	1.75	1.42
K% (L4)	17.0%	34.1%
BB% (L4)	10.2%	9.8%
IP/gm (L4)	4.58	4.58
L4 window	08/14→08/31 (4 st)	08/08→09/01 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	103 (−2)	106 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.61 (+0.04)	3.06 (+0.17)
Arsenal RV/100	-1.25	0.26

away arsenal — DET

RV/100 -1.25

4-Seam Fastball—-2.80xwOBA 0.464
Slider—+0.60xwOBA 0.302
Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.270
Curveball—-3.20xwOBA 0.308
Changeup—-0.70xwOBA 0.264

home arsenal — CLE

RV/100 0.26

Sweeper—+1.00xwOBA 0.224
4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.303
Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.273
Sinker—-0.80xwOBA 0.422
Cutter—-1.00xwOBA 0.420

away · DET vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

3.067

Σ match

2.990

Σ FRV

-1.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	3B	Kevin McGonigle	0.350	0.336	+0.0
2	2B	Hao-Yu Lee	0.301	0.300	-9.8
3	1B	Colt Keith	0.335	0.348	-1.1
4	DH	Riley Greene	0.367	0.375	-5.6
5	C	Dillon Dingler	0.344	0.332	+11.6
6	LF	Brett Callahan	0.342	0.325	-0.4
7	RF	Ben Malgeri	0.328	0.328	+0.8
8	CF	Max Clark	0.321	0.311	+3.2
9	SS	John Peck	0.379	0.336	-0.3

home · CLE vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.768

Σ match

3.138

Σ FRV

+17.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Steven Kwan	0.321	0.361	+6.7
2	2B	Travis Bazzana	0.299	0.336	-2.5
3	RF	Jo Adell	0.325	0.363	-8.2
4	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0.335	0.369	-2.3
5	LF	Angel Martínez	0.304	0.357	+2.9
6	3B	Angel Genao	0.297	0.337	+0.5
7	C	Patrick Bailey	0.309	0.354	+4.8
8	CF	Petey Halpin	0.286	0.327	+4.4
9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	0.292	0.335	+10.8

defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)

Dillon Dingler

FRV+11.6
framing+6.9
blocking+2.4
throwing+2.2

defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)

Patrick Bailey

FRV+4.8
framing+4.1
blocking-1.8
throwing+2.5

DET · Jackson Jobe

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs MIN · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	103
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	107
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	4.61

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-31; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CLE · Gavin Williams

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs TOR · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	106
Location+	—	—	115
Pitching+	—	—	122
botOvr	—	—	60
SIERA	—	—	3.06

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

DET · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.33–0.57]

0.106 R/PA · 0.150 R/out · worst: Yilber Díaz (5.88)

CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.31–0.50]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.25)

DET

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kenley Jansen	CLOSER	CL	4.84	28.0	13.4	0.89	17/1/22	stable
Tyler Kinley	SETUP	MR	5.15	22.8	11.2	0.87	1/12/9	stable
Kyle Finnegan	SETUP	SU	5.32	18.0	13.3	1.05	2/14/3	stable
Tyler Holton	OPENER	SU	4.06	19.1	6.1	1.06	2/14/8	stable
Drew Sommers	MR	MR	2.59	37.2	9.3	0.63	0/11/1	stable
Jacob Waguespack	MR	MR	5.39	15.5	10.6	1.30	0/4/4	stable
Beau Brieske	MR	MR	5.40	22.2	9.3	1.17	0/1/6	stable
Yilber Díaz	MOP_UP	LR	12.09	16.0	20.0	0.67	0/0/0	insufficient data

CLE

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Cade Smith	CLOSER	CL	2.46	34.5	8.2	1.05	35/0/37	stable
Erik Sabrowski	SETUP	SU	2.80	37.7	14.9	0.78	1/23/2	stable
Matt Festa	SETUP	MR	3.42	24.7	6.8	0.97	1/7/13	stable
Hunter Gaddis	SETUP	SU	3.73	22.6	9.0	0.86	1/28/2	stable
Tim Herrin	SETUP	MR	4.40	21.6	12.0	0.79	0/15/5	stable
Daniel Espino	MR	MR	2.46	44.1	11.8	1.00	0/0/1	stable
Franco Aleman	MR	MR	3.73	26.8	9.8	1.11	0/3/0	stable
Craig Yoho	MR	MR	4.84	24.8	9.9	1.33	0/1/5	stable
Slade Cecconi	SP	MR	4.63	18.1	7.4	5.21	0/0/0	ramping up

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 DET · 3 CLE

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

DET

2 R

4H · 0HR · 4BB · 17K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.222 · SLGe 0.188 · K% 47.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 9 K · relief 4.0 IP · 6 arms

CLE

3 R

7H · 1HR · 2BB · 9K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.286 · SLGe 0.406 · K% 25.7

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 2 ER · 17 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

DET · standout lines

big nights

Riley Greene (DH) · 2-4 | 2 2B, K, 2 RBI4 TB

tough nights

Hao-Yu Lee (2B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K, R0-for-3 · 2 K
Brett Callahan (LF) · 0-4 | 4 K0-for-4 · 4 K
Ben Malgeri (RF) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K, SB0-for-3 · 2 K

CLE · standout lines

big nights

Steven Kwan (DH) · 2-4 | 2 2B, K, R4 TB
Brayan Rocchio (SS) · 1-3 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Jo Adell (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Angel Genao (3B) · 0-4 | K, R0-for-4