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today's slate

AZ @ HOU

Sunday · September 6, 2026·full·gamePk 824142free Saturday

refreshed 474h 20m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Daikin Park

gametime 2:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

90°F

humidity 64%

wind

1 mph

in from LF

precip

26%

clear

park

HOU

retractable · HP→CF 345°

wind impact on total

neutralnone calm

Calm air — wind not a factor.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Eduardo RodriguezLHP · AZ	Peter LambertRHP · HOU
xERA 2026	4.45	3.60
xwOBA 2026	0.324	0.294
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.029	-0.001
xERA 2025	4.51	—
xwOBA 2025	0.328	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.88	2.40
FIP 25-26	4.12	3.88
kwERA 25-26	4.10	3.81
K% 25-26	19.1%	23.1%
BB% 25-26	8.3%	9.9%
IP 25+26 combined	321.3	132.7
ERA actual 2026	2.59	3.66
ERA (L4)	2.52	3.54
WHIP (L4)	1.12	1.57
K% (L4)	25.5%	21.1%
BB% (L4)	7.8%	13.7%
IP/gm (L4)	6.25	5.08
L4 window	08/09→09/01 (4 st)	08/08→08/31 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	96 (+4)	91 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.61 (−1.04)	5.27 (+0.99)
Arsenal RV/100	0.74	0.17

away arsenal — AZ

RV/100 0.74

4-Seam Fastball—+1.30xwOBA 0.327
Changeup—+0.80xwOBA 0.281
Cutter—-0.30xwOBA 0.349
Curveball—+1.60xwOBA 0.343
Sinker—-1.60xwOBA 0.397

home arsenal — HOU

RV/100 0.17

4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.322
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.242
Slider—+0.30xwOBA 0.283
Cutter—+0.10xwOBA 0.355
Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.292
Sweeper—-0.10xwOBA 0.282
Slurve—+1.80xwOBA 0.320

away · AZ vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.882

Σ match

2.780

Σ FRV

+26.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.327	0.308	+10.1
2	2B	Ketel Marte	0.349	0.325	+3.2
3	DH	Gabriel Moreno	0.366	0.353	+8.5
4	3B	Nolan Arenado	0.282	0.282	+2.6
5	RF	Corbin Carroll	0.342	0.323	+4.5
6	LF	Tommy Troy	0.317	0.320	+0.8
7	C	James McCann	0.292	0.283	-6.8
8	1B	Ildemaro Vargas	0.299	0.287	+2.5
9	CF	Jordan Lawlar	0.308	0.300	+0.9

home · HOU vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.865

Σ match

2.980

Σ FRV

-2.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jeremy Peña	0.326	0.352	-2.9
2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	0.450	0.463	-2.7
3	3B	Isaac Paredes	0.320	0.337	+0.6
4	2B	Jose Altuve	0.272	0.291	-5.8
5	1B	Christian Walker	0.300	0.304	+3.9
6	LF	Nelson Velázquez	0.348	0.341	-4.7
7	CF	Daulton Varsho	0.292	0.307	+3.6
8	RF	Cam Smith	0.319	0.331	+1.8
9	C	Christian Vázquez	0.238	0.254	+3.5

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

James McCann

FRV-6.8
framing-5.4
blocking-0.1
throwing-1.2

defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)

Christian Vázquez

FRV+3.5
framing+5.8
blocking-1.2
throwing-1.2

AZ · Eduardo Rodriguez

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs PHI · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	96
Location+	—	—	110
Pitching+	—	—	103
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	3.61

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

HOU · Peter Lambert

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs CWS · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	91
Location+	—	—	100
Pitching+	—	—	92
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	5.27

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-31; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.37–0.50]

0.102 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Blake Walston (5.40)

HOU · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.40–0.45]

0.100 R/PA · 0.142 R/out · worst: Bennett Sousa (4.29)

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	CL	2.35	32.1	6.3	0.83	5/15/6	stable
Juan Morillo	SETUP	CL	2.52	28.5	9.2	0.92	3/17/9	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	2.93	18.9	5.0	0.93	1/8/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	MR	3.48	24.4	6.7	0.93	2/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.82	15.6	4.9	1.00	0/13/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	MR	5.39	20.1	10.5	0.95	2/5/22	stable
Derek Law	unknown	MR	3.09	15.8	5.3	—	0/0/0	—
Blake Walston	unknown	LR	3.09	0.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Justin Martinez	unknown	MR	3.27	29.2	16.7	—	0/0/0	—
Gerardo Carrillo	unknown	MR	3.38	26.3	19.7	—	0/0/0	—

HOU

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Josh Hader	CLOSER	CL	1.56	37.1	7.7	0.91	23/0/14	stable
Bryan Abreu	CLOSER	SU	4.63	29.2	16.9	0.92	8/13/21	stable
Enyel De Los Santos	SETUP	MR	3.67	22.0	6.5	1.07	5/10/13	stable
AJ Blubaugh	SETUP	SU	3.95	24.6	9.7	1.68	1/9/6	ramping up
Bryan King	SETUP	MR	4.77	18.2	7.9	1.07	6/12/11	stable
Kai-Wei Teng	SWING	MR	4.74	22.2	10.0	2.76	0/4/1	ramping up
Bennett Sousa	MOP_UP	MR	4.57	23.1	13.9	0.67	0/8/2	stable
Tatsuya Imai	SP	LR	4.42	27.9	14.9	3.86	0/0/0	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 AZ · 2 HOU

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

AZ

3 R

9H · 1HR · 0BB · 8K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.297 · SLGe 0.424 · K% 21.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 12 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms

HOU

2 R

7H · 1HR · 2BB · 12K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.289 · SLGe 0.324 · K% 31.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 8 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

AZ · standout lines

big nights

Nolan Arenado (3B) · 1-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Jordan Lawlar (CF) · 0-3 | HBP, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

HOU · standout lines

big nights

Yordan Alvarez (DH) · 1-5 | HR, K, RBIHR
Jose Altuve (2B) · 3-4 | 2B, R3 H · 4 TB

tough nights

Jeremy Peña (SS) · 0-4 | HBP, K0-for-4
Isaac Paredes (1B) · 0-3 | HBP, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Nelson Velázquez (LF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K