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today's slate

TOR @ KC

Sunday · September 6, 2026·full·gamePk 824065free Saturday

refreshed 474h 18m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Kauffman Stadium

gametime 2:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

96°F

humidity 42%

wind

3 mph

in from CF

precip

overcast

park

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

-0.12 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.12 R/G vs neutral. _Open exposed bowl on prairie — summer south winds blow OUT to RF, plays huge_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Spencer ArrighettiRHP · TOR	Randy DobnakRHP · KC
xERA 2026	5.16	4.79
xwOBA 2026	0.346	0.335
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.024	-0.023
xERA 2025	5.44	5.73
xwOBA 2025	0.356	0.364
Outs/TB 25-26	2.15	2.18
FIP 25-26	5.28	4.22
kwERA 25-26	4.32	4.70
K% 25-26	21.7%	15.3%
BB% 25-26	12.7%	9.4%
IP 25+26 combined	134.3	63.0
ERA actual 2026	4.82	2.65
ERA (L4)	9.64	5.16
WHIP (L4)	2.07	1.46
K% (L4)	16.0%	21.0%
BB% (L4)	18.7%	6.0%
IP/gm (L4)	3.50	5.67
L4 window	07/08→08/27 (4 st)	08/09→09/01 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	103 (+2)	85 (+4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	6.25 (+1.53)	4.50 (−0.13)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.22	0.35

away arsenal — TOR

RV/100 -0.22

Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.271
4-Seam Fastball—-0.20xwOBA 0.413
Sweeper—-0.90xwOBA 0.277
Sinker—-0.30xwOBA 0.463
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.340
Cutter—+0.00xwOBA 0.367

home arsenal — KC

RV/100 0.35

Sinker—+1.10xwOBA 0.382
Sweeper—-0.30xwOBA 0.362
Changeup—-0.70xwOBA 0.265
4-Seam Fastball—+2.50xwOBA 0.226
Slider—-1.80xwOBA 0.310

away · TOR vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.664

Σ match

2.842

Σ FRV

+27.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Brett Bateman	0.282	0.310	+3.7
2	RF	Nathan Lukes	0.287	0.287	+6.2
3	DH	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.333	0.354	+6.1
4	LF	Jesús Sánchez	0.326	0.324	-8.1
5	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0.319	0.340	-3.1
6	1B	Sean Keys	0.247	0.291	-0.4
7	2B	Josh Smith	0.288	0.309	-3.0
8	SS	Andrés Giménez	0.269	0.299	+14.6
9	C	Brandon Valenzuela	0.313	0.327	+12.0

home · KC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.570

Σ match

2.949

Σ FRV

+14.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	John Rave	0.324	0.366	+0.5
2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0.383	0.422	+16.8
3	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0.325	0.360	+1.7
4	DH	Salvador Perez	0.308	0.354	-9.0
5	3B	Josh Rojas	0.217	0.265	-1.0
6	2B	Nick Loftin	0.297	0.329	-0.9
7	LF	Isaac Collins	0.296	0.331	+0.5
8	C	Luke Maile	0.156	0.239	+1.5
9	CF	Kyle Isbel	0.264	0.285	+3.9

defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)

Brandon Valenzuela

FRV+12.0
framing+7.9
blocking-0.5
throwing+4.7

defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)

Luke Maile

FRV+1.5
framing+1.5
blocking+0.3
throwing-0.3

TOR · Spencer Arrighetti

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs CLE · 3.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	103
Location+	—	—	79
Pitching+	—	—	84
botOvr	—	—	48
SIERA	—	—	6.25

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-18 → 2026-08-27. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

KC · Randy Dobnak

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs MIA · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	85
Location+	—	—	102
Pitching+	—	—	85
botOvr	—	—	47
SIERA	—	—	4.50

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TOR · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.37–0.53]

0.105 R/PA · 0.149 R/out · worst: Ricky Tiedemann (5.40)

KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.42–0.53]

0.112 R/PA · 0.159 R/out · worst: Anthony Gose (5.40)

TOR

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Louis Varland	CLOSER	CL	1.80	31.6	6.9	1.11	33/5/31	stable
Paul Sewald	CLOSER	MR	5.33	25.7	6.3	0.91	24/2/33	stable
Tyler Rogers	SETUP	SU	3.28	13.2	7.9	0.97	4/31/6	stable
Mason Fluharty	OPENER	MR	3.70	25.7	10.8	0.76	1/15/5	stable
Braydon Fisher	OPENER	SU	4.19	23.6	13.0	1.05	1/12/7	stable
Spencer Miles	SWING	MR	2.80	22.7	6.1	2.37	1/4/6	ramping up
Joe Mantiply	MR	MR	3.33	21.4	4.8	1.04	0/0/4	ramping down
Brendon Little	MOP_UP	MR	5.65	32.4	19.4	0.95	0/3/2	ramping up
Ricky Tiedemann	unknown	MR	3.84	18.2	18.2	—	0/0/0	—
Michael Lorenzen	SP	LR	5.30	14.6	8.5	4.62	1/0/0	ramping up

KC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Alex Lange	CLOSER	MR	4.74	22.6	11.1	1.03	10/3/20	stable
Connor Thomas	BULK	MR	7.55	12.9	10.0	3.67	0/2/0	insufficient data
Steven Cruz	OPENER	CL	5.14	25.9	8.6	1.06	6/5/7	stable
Jose Cuas	MR	MR	2.71	24.0	13.3	1.27	0/3/4	ramping down
Nolan Hoffman	MR	MR	3.74	14.7	11.8	1.56	0/0/2	insufficient data
Craig Kimbrel	MR	SU	4.07	21.6	10.8	1.03	1/2/15	stable
Easton McGee	MR	LR	6.57	19.1	10.6	1.00	0/0/2	insufficient data
Anthony Gose	unknown	MR	3.09	0.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Nate Pearson	unknown	MR	3.55	20.4	11.8	—	3/5/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 TOR · 6 KC

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TOR

1 R

8H · 1HR · 1BB · 5K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.294 · SLGe 0.344 · K% 14.7

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 6 ER · 8 K · relief 3.3 IP · 4 arms

KC

6 R

7H · 2HR · 7BB · 8K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.400 · SLGe 0.452 · K% 20.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 5 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms

TOR · standout lines

big nights

Brett Bateman (CF) · 3-3 | HBP3 H
Josh Smith (2B) · 1-2 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (DH) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Kazuma Okamoto (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

KC · standout lines

big nights

Vinnie Pasquantino (1B) · 1-3 | HR, 2 BB, 3 RBIHR
Salvador Perez (DH) · 1-4 | HR, HBP, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Kyle Isbel (CF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4