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WSH @ LAD

Sunday · September 6, 2026·full·gamePk 823903free Saturday

refreshed 466h 20m ago both lineups confirmed

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Andrew AlvarezLHP · WSH	Justin WrobleskiLHP · LAD
xERA 2026	4.36	4.66
xwOBA 2026	0.321	0.331
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.021	-0.035
xERA 2025	2.87	3.41
xwOBA 2025	0.265	0.288
Outs/TB 25-26	2.56	2.01
FIP 25-26	3.37	3.82
kwERA 25-26	4.03	3.41
K% 25-26	22.1%	22.3%
BB% 25-26	10.6%	5.7%
IP 25+26 combined	114.0	195.0
ERA actual 2026	3.47	3.65
ERA (L4)	2.49	8.69
WHIP (L4)	0.88	1.58
K% (L4)	21.4%	21.7%
BB% (L4)	8.3%	7.6%
IP/gm (L4)	5.42	4.92
L4 window	08/08→08/30 (4 st)	07/28→08/15 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	98 (+2)	95 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.38 (+0.28)	4.90 (+0.78)
Arsenal RV/100	0.33	0.45

away arsenal — WSH

RV/100 0.33

Curveball—+1.00xwOBA 0.221
4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.393
Slider—-0.80xwOBA 0.377
Sinker—+0.90xwOBA 0.391
Changeup—+1.80xwOBA 0.158

home arsenal — LAD

RV/100 0.45

4-Seam Fastball—+1.20xwOBA 0.308
Slider—-0.30xwOBA 0.329
Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.396
Changeup—+0.80xwOBA 0.304
Curveball—-1.20xwOBA 0.371
Sweeper—-2.30xwOBA 0.323

away · WSH vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.921

Σ match

3.107

Σ FRV

-3.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	James Wood	0.417	0.452	-7.2
2	RF	Dylan Crews	0.307	0.322	+1.5
3	1B	Andrés Chaparro	0.354	0.400	-2.9
4	2B	CJ Abrams	0.328	0.353	-11.1
5	3B	Brady House	0.336	0.342	-2.1
6	LF	Daylen Lile	0.329	0.329	+2.6
7	C	Harry Ford	0.264	0.285	-1.1
8	CF	Jacob Young	0.319	0.346	+9.0
9	SS	Nasim Nuñez	0.267	0.278	+8.2

home · LAD vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.973

Σ match

3.099

Σ FRV

+3.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Tommy Edman	0.316	0.327	+2.5
2	SS	Mookie Betts	0.329	0.334	+8.1
3	C	Will Smith	0.377	0.376	-0.6
4	1B	Freddie Freeman	0.374	0.380	+3.9
5	LF	Teoscar Hernández	0.323	0.344	-5.7
6	RF	Kyle Tucker	0.327	0.354	-7.7
7	2B	Miguel Rojas	0.312	0.329	+1.4
8	DH	Max Muncy	0.348	0.376	+2.7
9	3B	Enrique Hernández	0.267	0.280	-1.0

defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)

Harry Ford

FRV-1.1
framing-0.6
blocking+0.2
throwing-0.7

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Will Smith

FRV-0.6
framing-1.6
blocking+0.5
throwing+0.4

WSH · Andrew Alvarez

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs MIA · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	102
Pitching+	—	—	101
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	4.38

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAD · Justin Wrobleski

Last outing 2026-08-15 vs MIL · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	95
Location+	—	—	118
Pitching+	—	—	113
botOvr	—	—	61
SIERA	—	—	4.90

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-03 → 2026-08-15. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.27–0.56]

0.098 R/PA · 0.139 R/out · worst: Riley Cornelio (5.18)

LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.31–0.47]

0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Seth Halvorsen (5.30)

WSH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Orlando Ribalta	SETUP	SU	3.90	23.6	10.1	0.92	2/12/6	stable
Brad Lord	SETUP	MR	4.07	22.5	9.3	2.15	1/6/4	stable
Clayton Beeter	SETUP	CL	5.61	22.4	15.4	0.96	12/8/11	stable
Matt Waldron	BULK	LR	4.59	17.0	5.7	3.58	0/1/1	ramping down
Will Dion	MR	LR	3.81	28.4	6.8	1.79	0/0/6	ramping down
Riley Cornelio	MR	MR	4.99	21.5	19.6	2.04	0/0/2	ramping down
Jared Simpson	unknown	MR	1.09	37.5	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Erik Tolman	unknown	MR	1.86	33.3	11.1	—	1/1/0	—
Jack Sinclair	unknown	MR	3.09	42.9	14.3	—	0/0/0	—
Luis Perales	unknown	MR	8.69	17.9	14.3	—	0/0/0	—

LAD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tanner Scott	CLOSER	CL	2.23	31.2	5.4	0.94	21/12/21	stable
Edgardo Henriquez	SETUP	SU	2.52	29.5	10.3	1.05	1/9/5	stable
Alex Vesia	SETUP	MR	3.42	29.9	14.5	0.76	3/18/6	stable
Blake Treinen	SETUP	MR	3.48	25.0	10.0	0.79	1/6/5	stable
Jack Dreyer	MR	MR	3.44	29.6	8.8	1.01	2/10/9	stable
Brock Stewart	MR	MR	3.67	23.8	10.0	1.06	1/7/2	stable
Evan Phillips	MR	SU	4.41	26.5	6.0	1.00	0/6/3	stable
Seth Halvorsen	MOP_UP	MR	6.13	15.7	14.8	0.90	0/2/4	stable
Justin Wrobleski	SP	MR	4.29	19.8	5.5	6.02	0/0/1	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 WSH · 7 LAD

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

WSH

5 R

9H · 1HR · 6BB · 11K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.400 · SLGe 0.455 · K% 27.5

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 7 ER · 8 K · relief 3.7 IP · 3 arms

LAD

7 R

10H · 1HR · 5BB · 8K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.385 · SLGe 0.441 · K% 20.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 11 K · relief 6.0 IP · 5 arms

WSH · standout lines

big nights

CJ Abrams (2B) · 1-4 | HR, BB, 2 KHR
Daylen Lile (LF) · 2-4 | 3B, 2 K, R4 TB

tough nights

Dylan Crews (RF) · 0-4 | HBP, 2 K, RBI0-for-4 · 2 K
Nasim Nuñez (SS) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

LAD · standout lines

big nights

Mookie Betts (SS) · 1-5 | HR, 4 RBI, RHR · 4 RBI
Max Muncy (DH) · 3-4 | 2B, 2 R3 H · 4 TB

tough nights

Kyle Tucker (RF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4