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today's slate

CHC @ MIA

Sunday · September 6, 2026·full·gamePk 823822free Saturday

refreshed 474h 49m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · loanDepot park

gametime 1:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

87°F

humidity 77%

wind

4 mph

out to LF

precip

21%

clear

park

MIA

retractable · HP→CF 40°

wind impact on total

neutralnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Clay HolmesRHP · CHC	Tyler PhillipsRHP · MIA
xERA 2026	3.90	4.63
xwOBA 2026	0.305	0.330
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.053	-0.017
xERA 2025	4.33	3.66
xwOBA 2025	0.322	0.298
Outs/TB 25-26	2.49	2.17
FIP 25-26	3.81	4.33
kwERA 25-26	4.25	4.31
K% 25-26	18.6%	18.1%
BB% 25-26	9.0%	9.0%
IP 25+26 combined	247.3	188.0
ERA actual 2026	2.09	3.43
ERA (L4)	0.36	1.93
WHIP (L4)	0.84	1.12
K% (L4)	18.3%	23.7%
BB% (L4)	7.5%	7.9%
IP/gm (L4)	6.25	4.67
L4 window	08/14→08/31 (4 st)	08/01→09/01 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	92 (−7)	95 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.93 (+0.01)	3.89 (−0.63)
Arsenal RV/100	1.39	0.18

away arsenal — CHC

RV/100 1.39

Sinker—+1.60xwOBA 0.369
Sweeper—+1.40xwOBA 0.210
Changeup—+1.50xwOBA 0.224
Cutter—+0.10xwOBA 0.342
Curveball—+1.50xwOBA 0.200

home arsenal — MIA

RV/100 0.18

Sinker—-1.40xwOBA 0.398
Sweeper—+1.50xwOBA 0.264
Split-Finger—+1.90xwOBA 0.258
Curveball—+0.40xwOBA 0.344
4-Seam Fastball—-4.50xwOBA 0.404

away · CHC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.928

Σ match

3.001

Σ FRV

+52.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0.369	0.377	+25.7
2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	0.339	0.339	+6.5
3	1B	Michael Busch	0.328	0.361	+1.8
4	3B	Alex Bregman	0.318	0.316	+6.0
5	LF	Ian Happ	0.313	0.335	+4.9
6	SS	Nico Hoerner	0.324	0.335	+8.4
7	2B	Pedro Ramírez	0.293	0.294	-0.1
8	DH	Michael Conforto	0.333	0.338	-1.9
9	C	Carson Kelly	0.311	0.307	+1.5

home · MIA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.788

Σ match

2.808

Σ FRV

+18.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Kyle Stowers	0.335	0.338	-2.8
2	1B	Griffin Conine	0.373	0.390	-0.9
3	RF	Owen Caissie	0.297	0.278	-8.2
4	CF	Jakob Marsee	0.305	0.301	+2.9
5	LF	Heriberto Hernández	0.353	0.328	+0.8
6	C	Joe Mack	0.289	0.287	+10.3
7	SS	Otto Lopez	0.324	0.343	+10.6
8	3B	Graham Pauley	0.225	0.253	+2.1
9	2B	Javier Sanoja	0.287	0.290	+3.6

defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carson Kelly

FRV+1.5
framing+2.0
blocking+1.3
throwing-1.9

defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)

Joe Mack

FRV+10.3
framing+6.0
blocking+0.4
throwing+3.9

CHC · Clay Holmes

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs MIL · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	92
Location+	—	—	94
Pitching+	—	—	90
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	3.93

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-31; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIA · Tyler Phillips

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs KC · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	95
Location+	—	—	85
Pitching+	—	—	79
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	3.89

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.37–0.50]

0.102 R/PA · 0.145 R/out · worst: Trent Thornton (4.69)

MIA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.37–0.54]

0.108 R/PA · 0.153 R/out · worst: Josh Ekness (5.13)

CHC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Daniel Palencia	CLOSER	SU	4.42	26.1	7.6	0.88	3/0/12	stable
Jacob Webb	SETUP	CL	3.76	25.7	8.3	0.98	9/8/14	stable
Ryan Zeferjahn	SETUP	SU	3.94	31.1	13.2	1.15	5/13/15	stable
Caleb Thielbar	SETUP	MR	5.04	29.1	9.0	0.85	3/7/6	stable
Ryan Rolison	OPENER	MR	3.98	22.3	10.7	1.12	2/7/13	stable
Trent Thornton	MR	MR	5.45	15.0	9.1	1.11	3/6/9	ramping down
Aaron Civale	SP	MR	4.67	18.4	6.9	4.67	2/0/0	ramping down
Colin Rea	SP	LR	4.81	17.4	8.1	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up

MIA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Calvin Faucher	SETUP	CL	2.94	25.1	12.7	0.98	3/15/7	stable
Michael Petersen	SETUP	SU	3.40	28.6	11.1	1.06	1/23/4	stable
Dax Fulton	BULK	MR	3.30	20.5	15.4	2.50	0/0/3	ramping down
Cade Gibson	MR	MR	4.16	18.9	10.3	1.28	0/4/7	stable
Victor Vodnik	MR	MR	4.27	16.4	12.3	1.08	4/6/12	stable
Tyler Zuber	MR	SU	4.57	25.2	5.6	0.87	1/8/5	stable
Josh Ekness	MR	MR	4.93	16.7	14.4	0.89	1/2/2	stable
Jack Ralston	unknown	MR	5.30	15.4	11.5	—	0/2/0	—
Bradley Blalock	unknown	LR	6.42	21.4	7.1	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 CHC · 10 MIA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CHC

3 R

7H · 1HR · 3BB · 5K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.286 · SLGe 0.387 · K% 14.3

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 10 ER · 5 K · relief 3.7 IP · 3 arms

MIA

10 R

11H · 2HR · 6BB · 5K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.439 · SLGe 0.500 · K% 12.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

CHC · standout lines

big nights

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF) · 1-3 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Pedro Ramírez (2B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

MIA · standout lines

big nights

Heriberto Hernández (LF) · 2-4 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR
Javier Sanoja (SS) · 2-4 | HR, 2 RBI, 2 RHR

tough nights

Kyle Stowers (DH) · 0-3 | 2 BB, 2 K, R0-for-3 · 2 K