Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

SF @ NYM

Sunday · September 6, 2026·full·gamePk 823578free Saturday

refreshed 474h 50m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Citi Field

gametime 1:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

73°F

humidity 66%

wind

6 mph

in from CF

precip

partly cloudy

park

NYM

open · HP→CF 21°

wind impact on total

-0.19 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.19 R/G vs neutral. _Citi Field's big CF dimensions + frequent NE winds = pitcher's park even in summer_

opener / bulk pattern

SF: Cesar Perdomo opens → bulk: no confident pattern

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Cesar PerdomoLHP · SF	Christian ScottRHP · NYM
xERA 2026	4.33	4.04
xwOBA 2026	0.320	0.310
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.007	-0.003
xERA 2025	—	—
xwOBA 2025	—	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.71	2.24
FIP 25-26	5.09	3.75
kwERA 25-26	3.00	3.39
K% 25-26	26.7%	27.4%
BB% 25-26	6.7%	10.7%
IP 25+26 combined	4.0	94.7
ERA actual 2026	2.25	3.80
ERA (L4)	—	6.20
WHIP (L4)	—	1.48
K% (L4)	—	22.6%
BB% (L4)	—	12.9%
IP/gm (L4)	—	5.08
L4 window	—	08/10→08/28 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	107 (+0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	3.97 (+0.10)
Arsenal RV/100	—	0.15

away arsenal · BULK Cesar Perdomo — SF

RV/100 —

No Savant arsenal data.

home arsenal — NYM

RV/100 0.15

4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.331
Sweeper—+0.80xwOBA 0.240
Cutter—+1.80xwOBA 0.340
Curveball—-3.70xwOBA 0.256
Split-Finger—-0.70xwOBA 0.445

away · SF vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.786

Σ match

2.815

Σ FRV

-12.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Drew Gilbert	0.328	0.338	+2.7
2	DH	Rafael Devers	0.340	0.342	-4.6
3	1B	Bryce Eldridge	0.357	0.378	+0.6
4	2B	Jonah Cox	0.274	0.271	+1.5
5	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0.315	0.314	-5.9
6	3B	Osleivis Basabe	0.283	0.290	-4.4
7	LF	Grant McCray	0.325	0.327	-2.1
8	C	Drew Cavanaugh	0.324	0.315	-2.1
9	SS	Christian Koss	0.240	0.241	+1.9

home · NYM vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.946

Σ match

—

Σ FRV

+6.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Francisco Lindor	0.338	—	-0.8
2	DH	Juan Soto	0.416	—	-3.2
3	3B	Bo Bichette	0.325	—	-1.5
4	RF	Carson Benge	0.336	—	+5.8
5	1B	Mark Vientos	0.314	—	-6.3
6	2B	Marcus Semien	0.305	—	-5.3
7	LF	Nick Morabito	0.298	—	+1.0
8	CF	A.J. Ewing	0.317	—	+6.9
9	C	Luis Torrens	0.297	—	+9.5

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Drew Cavanaugh

FRV-2.1
framing-2.4
blocking+0.5
throwing-0.2

defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)

Luis Torrens

FRV+9.5
framing+5.7
blocking+1.5
throwing+2.3

SF · Cesar Perdomo: no recent outing on file.

NYM · Christian Scott

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs HOU · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	107
Location+	—	—	95
Pitching+	—	—	100
botOvr	—	—	58
SIERA	—	—	3.97

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.47R / inningband [0.38–0.55]

0.110 R/PA · 0.156 R/out · worst: Joel Kuhnel (4.65)

NYM · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.31–0.48]

0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Justin Hagenman (4.65)

SF

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Joel Kuhnel	SETUP	MR	5.42	14.4	8.1	1.01	6/5/16	stable
Dylan Smith	MR	CL	3.34	29.7	10.9	0.88	4/7/5	stable
Jason Foley	MR	MR	3.67	15.2	8.9	1.00	0/2/0	insufficient data
Reiver Sanmartin	MR	MR	4.49	18.1	7.2	1.67	0/3/1	insufficient data
Carson Seymour	MR	SU	4.79	17.2	10.1	2.17	1/6/0	insufficient data
Trent Harris	unknown	SU	1.66	32.2	10.2	—	0/3/0	—
Braxton Roxby	unknown	MR	2.59	18.2	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Cesar Perdomo	unknown	MR	5.09	26.7	6.7	—	0/0/0	—

NYM

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kodai Senga	BULK	CL	5.98	25.4	14.8	3.39	5/0/1	ramping down
Austin Warren	OPENER	MR	4.32	25.8	10.8	1.35	0/1/9	stable
Tobias Myers	OPENER	MR	5.05	16.7	6.6	1.77	1/3/5	stable
Daniel Duarte	MR	SU	2.90	26.8	6.2	1.67	2/6/2	insufficient data
Jonathan Pintaro	MR	MR	5.05	25.3	13.1	2.47	0/1/2	ramping up
Chris Devenski	MOP_UP	MR	6.25	10.7	0.0	0.78	0/1/1	insufficient data
Nate Lavender	unknown	SU	1.59	31.8	6.8	—	0/8/0	—
Dedniel Núñez	unknown	MR	4.55	23.4	0.0	—	0/2/0	—
Justin Hagenman	unknown	LR	6.09	12.5	6.2	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 SF · 4 NYM

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SF

2 R

5H · 0HR · 0BB · 12K · 7LOB

OBPe 0.151 · SLGe 0.151 · K% 36.4

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 4 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

NYM

4 R

7H · 2HR · 2BB · 4K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.290 · SLGe 0.500 · K% 12.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 12 K · relief 4.3 IP · 5 arms

SF · standout lines

tough nights

Drew Gilbert (LF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Osleivis Basabe (2B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K

NYM · standout lines

big nights

Bo Bichette (3B) · 1-4 | HR, K, 3 RBIHR
Brett Baty (1B) · 1-1 | HR, RBI, RHR