Baseball Daily

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today's slate

ATL @ PHI

Sunday · September 6, 2026·full·gamePk 823417free Saturday

refreshed 475h 19m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Citizens Bank Park

gametime 1:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

76°F

humidity 67%

wind

7 mph

in from CF

precip

mostly clear

park

PHI

open · HP→CF 16°

wind impact on total

-0.23 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.23 R/G vs neutral. _Open bowl + short porches both sides + warm SW summer wind out to RF = launching pad_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Tyler MahleRHP · ATL	Aaron NolaRHP · PHI
xERA 2026	4.18	4.09
xwOBA 2026	0.315	0.312
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.004	0.039
xERA 2025	4.24	4.13
xwOBA 2025	0.319	0.315
Outs/TB 25-26	2.24	1.58
FIP 25-26	3.74	4.73
kwERA 25-26	3.80	3.38
K% 25-26	21.5%	24.4%
BB% 25-26	8.2%	7.6%
IP 25+26 combined	211.7	242.3
ERA actual 2026	4.25	4.93
ERA (L4)	1.85	2.35
WHIP (L4)	0.99	1.13
K% (L4)	24.5%	29.0%
BB% (L4)	3.2%	7.5%
IP/gm (L4)	6.08	5.75
L4 window	08/12→08/30 (4 st)	08/08→08/31 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	84 (−4)	104 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.75 (−0.21)	3.05 (−0.79)
Arsenal RV/100	0.06	-0.72

away arsenal — ATL

RV/100 0.06

4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.301
Split-Finger—+0.00xwOBA 0.310
Cutter—+0.10xwOBA 0.316
Slider—-4.70xwOBA 0.411

home arsenal — PHI

RV/100 -0.72

Curveball—+1.20xwOBA 0.227
4-Seam Fastball—-2.30xwOBA 0.402
Sinker—-2.70xwOBA 0.373
Changeup—+0.80xwOBA 0.300
Cutter—-2.60xwOBA 0.345

away · ATL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.892

Σ match

2.975

Σ FRV

+13.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Drake Baldwin	0.367	0.385	-0.3
2	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.362	0.372	-3.2
3	1B	Matt Olson	0.355	0.352	+6.9
4	CF	Michael Harris II	0.341	0.333	+10.2
5	SS	Mauricio Dubón	0.302	0.310	+5.0
6	2B	Ozzie Albies	0.284	0.288	-2.3
7	C	Sean Murphy	0.275	0.303	-0.4
8	3B	Austin Riley	0.298	0.302	-1.2
9	LF	Mike Yastrzemski	0.308	0.330	-1.6

home · PHI vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.817

Σ match

2.867

Σ FRV

-14.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Kyle Schwarber	0.365	0.363	-0.8
2	SS	Trea Turner	0.294	0.290	-8.5
3	RF	Bryce Harper	0.393	0.404	-9.5
4	2B	Luis Arraez	0.307	0.316	+10.1
5	1B	Alec Bohm	0.323	0.325	-6.1
6	3B	Bryson Stott	0.327	0.330	+5.2
7	LF	Brandon Marsh	0.306	0.308	-5.2
8	CF	Justin Crawford	0.281	0.279	-0.9
9	C	Garrett Stubbs	0.221	0.252	+1.6

defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)

Sean Murphy

FRV-0.4
framing-0.8
blocking+0.8
throwing-0.4

defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)

Garrett Stubbs

FRV+1.6
framing+0.0
blocking-0.1
throwing+2.1

ATL · Tyler Mahle

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs COL · 6.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	84
Location+	—	—	109
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	3.75

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

PHI · Aaron Nola

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs AZ · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	104
Location+	—	—	110
Pitching+	—	—	112
botOvr	—	—	58
SIERA	—	—	3.05

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-31; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.35R / inningband [0.27–0.44]

0.083 R/PA · 0.117 R/out · worst: Elieser Hernández (4.78)

PHI · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.37R / inningband [0.31–0.42]

0.086 R/PA · 0.122 R/out · worst: Orion Kerkering (4.02)

ATL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Raisel Iglesias	CLOSER	CL	3.24	25.7	7.6	1.04	30/0/29	stable
Dylan Lee	SETUP	SU	2.04	31.4	6.4	0.97	0/30/1	stable
Didier Fuentes	SETUP	SU	2.38	31.1	7.4	1.20	3/16/4	ramping down
Dylan Dodd	SETUP	MR	3.27	26.7	8.1	1.18	1/14/4	ramping down
Brent Suter	OPENER	MR	3.57	20.6	7.1	1.54	0/3/13	stable
Victor Mederos	MR	MR	2.95	23.3	9.2	1.87	1/1/4	ramping up
Ray Kerr	unknown	MR	4.09	15.8	2.6	—	0/1/0	—
Elieser Hernández	unknown	LR	4.64	17.9	12.8	—	1/0/0	—

PHI

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jhoan Duran	CLOSER	CL	1.37	34.0	4.4	0.94	30/0/35	stable
Jonathan Bowlan	SETUP	SU	3.24	31.6	6.6	0.93	2/13/2	stable
Brooks Raley	SETUP	MR	3.35	24.0	8.0	0.89	1/16/5	stable
José Alvarado	SETUP	MR	3.76	26.5	9.8	0.85	1/14/3	stable
Orion Kerkering	SETUP	SU	3.88	23.5	11.9	0.94	2/17/5	stable
Tim Mayza	OPENER	MR	3.22	24.5	6.2	1.15	0/1/9	stable
Chase Shugart	MR	LR	5.09	27.7	9.4	1.13	0/0/10	stable
Alex McFarlane	unknown	MR	2.47	25.0	11.4	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 ATL · 4 PHI

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

ATL

5 R

10H · 1HR · 1BB · 7K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.297 · SLGe 0.543 · K% 18.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

PHI

4 R

7H · 2HR · 1BB · 6K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.222 · SLGe 0.441 · K% 16.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 7 K · relief 2.0 IP · 4 arms

ATL · standout lines

big nights

Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF) · 2-3 | HR, 2B, 4 RBIHR · 4 RBI

tough nights

Matt Olson (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Sean Murphy (C) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

PHI · standout lines

big nights

Kyle Schwarber (DH) · 1-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR
Derek Hill (CF) · 1-2 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Bryce Harper (RF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K