Baseball Daily

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today's slate

LAA @ PIT

Sunday · September 6, 2026·full·gamePk 823336free Saturday

refreshed 474h 52m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · PNC Park

gametime 1:35 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

75°F

humidity 60%

wind

9 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

clear

park

PIT

open · HP→CF 115°

wind impact on total

-0.09 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Walbert UreñaRHP · LAA	Paul SkenesRHP · PIT
xERA 2026	3.40	3.23
xwOBA 2026	0.286	0.279
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.006	0.018
xERA 2025	—	2.65
xwOBA 2025	—	0.255
Outs/TB 25-26	2.80	2.44
FIP 25-26	3.74	2.67
kwERA 25-26	4.12	2.65
K% 25-26	22.9%	29.2%
BB% 25-26	12.2%	6.3%
IP 25+26 combined	123.3	337.3
ERA actual 2026	2.85	3.97
ERA (L4)	5.50	4.05
WHIP (L4)	1.50	1.40
K% (L4)	25.3%	19.5%
BB% (L4)	12.7%	9.2%
IP/gm (L4)	4.50	5.00
L4 window	08/08→08/31 (4 st)	08/11→09/01 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	98 (−3)	97 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.81 (+0.42)	4.52 (+1.26)
Arsenal RV/100	0.56	0.42

away arsenal — LAA

RV/100 0.56

Changeup—+2.10xwOBA 0.224
Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.352
4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.320
Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.235

home arsenal — PIT

RV/100 0.42

4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.283
Sweeper—+0.90xwOBA 0.223
Changeup—-1.90xwOBA 0.251
Sinker—+0.00xwOBA 0.318
Split-Finger—+0.50xwOBA 0.335
Slider—+1.30xwOBA 0.255

away · LAA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.629

Σ match

2.400

Σ FRV

-1.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.305	0.278	-2.4
2	DH	Mike Trout	0.376	0.335	-2.9
3	RF	Wade Meckler	0.312	0.276	+1.8
4	3B	Vaughn Grissom	0.316	0.284	-4.9
5	1B	Moisés Ballesteros	0.291	0.259	-1.5
6	2B	Christian Moore	0.238	0.250	-1.6
7	CF	Josh Lowe	0.290	0.258	+4.9
8	LF	Adam Frazier	0.258	0.245	-1.5
9	C	Tyler Heineman	0.243	0.214	+6.2

home · PIT vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.894

Σ match

2.661

Σ FRV

-12.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Konnor Griffin	0.298	0.274	-4.3
2	2B	Brandon Lowe	0.322	0.302	+10.2
3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	0.360	0.342	-3.6
4	DH	Nick Gonzales	0.327	0.295	-9.2
5	CF	Oneil Cruz	0.352	0.323	+0.9
6	RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.331	0.296	-2.6
7	1B	Spencer Horwitz	0.312	0.296	-4.1
8	3B	Jacob Gonzalez	0.306	0.276	-2.1
9	C	Henry Davis	0.286	0.259	+2.4

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Tyler Heineman

FRV+6.2
framing+4.4
blocking-0.3
throwing+2.1

defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)

Henry Davis

FRV+2.4
framing+0.0
blocking+0.4
throwing+2.0

LAA · Walbert Ureña

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs NYY · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	95
Pitching+	—	—	98
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	4.81

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-31; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

PIT · Paul Skenes

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs SF · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	103
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	4.52

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.30–0.46]

0.090 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.18)

PIT · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.34–0.47]

0.096 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Khristian Curtis (5.09)

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Samy Natera Jr.	MR	SU	1.87	38.8	10.3	1.16	3/4/3	stable
Tayler Saucedo	MR	MR	2.39	28.6	4.8	0.56	0/5/0	stable
José Fermin	MR	MR	3.91	27.5	10.4	1.11	1/7/7	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	4.14	19.4	7.8	1.61	2/4/21	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	LR	4.95	24.3	11.4	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	2.23	36.1	13.9	—	3/2/0	—
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	2.70	20.8	2.1	—	0/2/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	4.02	25.4	15.3	—	0/4/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	MR	5.51	28.3	8.3	—	0/1/0	—

PIT

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Gregory Soto	CLOSER	SU	3.27	27.9	9.7	0.99	14/10/21	stable
Luke Weaver	SETUP	SU	2.68	26.7	7.1	1.05	1/18/4	stable
Yohan Ramírez	SETUP	MR	3.57	27.1	13.0	1.28	2/8/8	stable
Isaac Mattson	SETUP	MR	3.71	20.5	10.2	0.96	0/8/7	stable
Khristian Curtis	BULK	LR	3.45	17.9	15.4	5.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Mason Montgomery	OPENER	CL	2.27	38.1	9.2	0.97	9/9/7	stable
Lake Bachar	OPENER	MR	4.63	25.2	10.1	1.53	2/1/10	stable
Wilber Dotel	MR	MR	3.15	25.4	10.8	2.13	0/3/1	stable
Camilo Doval	MOP_UP	MR	4.52	23.1	12.4	0.90	1/6/10	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

0 LAA · 1 PIT

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

LAA

0 R

5H · 0HR · 3BB · 4K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.257 · SLGe 0.194 · K% 11.4

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 1 ER · 4 K · relief 0.0 IP · 1 arms

PIT

1 R

3H · 1HR · 1BB · 4K · 4LOB

OBPe 0.148 · SLGe 0.231 · K% 14.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 4 K · relief 3.7 IP · 5 arms

LAA · standout lines

tough nights

Vaughn Grissom (3B) · 0-40-for-4

PIT · standout lines

big nights

Henry Davis (C) · 1-3 | HR, RBI, RHR