Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

NYY @ SD

Sunday · September 6, 2026·full·gamePk 823253free Saturday

refreshed 476h 39m ago· lineups expected / expected may be stale — sweep job runs every 15m

weather · Petco Park

gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

89°F

humidity 54%

wind

11 mph

in from RF

precip

overcast

park

open · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

-0.23 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.23 R/G vs neutral. _Petco's marine-cool air is the suppressor; wind from west onshore most days_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Gerrit ColeRHP · NYY	Michael KingRHP · SD
xERA 2026	3.40	4.36
xwOBA 2026	0.286	0.321
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.005	-0.028
xERA 2025	—	4.24
xwOBA 2025	—	0.319
Outs/TB 25-26	2.00	2.30
FIP 25-26	3.29	4.25
kwERA 25-26	2.92	3.82
K% 25-26	25.8%	22.4%
BB% 25-26	5.2%	9.2%
IP 25+26 combined	104.0	235.3
ERA actual 2026	3.29	3.11
ERA (L4)	3.33	1.75
WHIP (L4)	1.19	1.13
K% (L4)	23.8%	20.4%
BB% (L4)	4.0%	7.8%
IP/gm (L4)	6.08	6.42
L4 window	08/08→09/01 (4 st)	08/14→08/31 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	108 (+5)	98 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	2.90 (−0.55)	4.01 (−0.35)
Arsenal RV/100	0.58	0.60

away arsenal — NYY

RV/100 0.58

4-Seam Fastball—+1.50xwOBA 0.272
Slider—+0.70xwOBA 0.282
Curveball—-1.70xwOBA 0.318
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.251
Sinker—-2.20xwOBA 0.546

home arsenal — SD

RV/100 0.60

Sinker—+0.00xwOBA 0.385
Changeup—+1.20xwOBA 0.291
4-Seam Fastball—-0.20xwOBA 0.339
Sweeper—+1.00xwOBA 0.271
Slider—+2.30xwOBA 0.287

away · NYY vs RHP

projected

Σ xwOBA

2.900

Σ match

2.992

Σ FRV

+13.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Ben Rice	0.378	0.395	-4.1
2	LF	Cody Bellinger	0.342	0.333	+9.7
3	1B	Luis García	0.348	0.376	+1.0
4	RF	Heliot Ramos	0.326	0.313	-5.5
5	SS	George Lombard	0.284	0.296	-0.7
6	2B	Jazz Chisholm	0.294	0.323	+7.2
7	CF	Spencer Jones	0.329	0.345	-2.2
8	3B	Ryan McMahon	0.308	0.314	+2.2
9	C	Austin Wells	0.291	0.297	+5.7

home · SD vs RHP

projected

Σ xwOBA

2.899

Σ match

2.683

Σ FRV

+22.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Fernando Tatis	0.374	0.353	+5.3
2	3B	Manny Machado	0.333	0.310	+4.7
3	1B	Ty France	0.331	0.293	+8.6
4	2B	Jake Cronenworth	0.272	0.259	-2.3
5	CF	Jackson Merrill	0.336	0.300	+9.1
6	SS	Xander Bogaerts	0.321	0.296	+3.1
7	DH	Austin Hays	0.270	0.266	-1.9
8	C	Luis Campusano	0.335	0.301	-4.5
9	LF	Dustin Harris	0.327	0.304	+0.5

defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Wells

FRV+5.7
framing+5.6
blocking+1.4
throwing-1.4

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Luis Campusano

FRV-4.5
framing-5.3
blocking-0.8
throwing+1.6

NYY · Gerrit Cole

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs LAA · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	108
Location+	—	—	109
Pitching+	—	—	109
botOvr	—	—	58
SIERA	—	—	2.90

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SD · Michael King

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs CIN · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	4.01

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-31; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.36–0.52]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Tim Hill (4.68)

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.34–0.46]

0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.52)

NYY

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
David Bednar	CLOSER	CL	2.45	27.7	7.2	1.10	31/0/35	stable
Brent Headrick	SETUP	SU	2.21	30.4	7.2	1.01	0/25/6	stable
John Schreiber	SETUP	MR	4.81	17.5	10.9	0.91	1/14/5	stable
Tim Hill	SETUP	MR	5.32	11.1	5.1	0.84	2/10/6	stable
Paul Blackburn	OPENER	SU	3.70	21.3	9.2	1.53	1/10/13	stable
Ryan Yarbrough	MR	MR	3.77	17.3	9.3	1.59	3/1/14	stable
Michael Fulmer	unknown	MR	4.71	25.0	13.9	—	0/2/0	—

SD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Mason Miller	CLOSER	CL	1.00	48.0	8.9	1.04	32/0/34	stable
Adrian Morejon	SETUP	SU	2.43	30.0	7.4	1.16	2/22/6	stable
Kyle Hart	SETUP	MR	3.23	23.2	8.0	1.40	0/7/5	stable
Bradgley Rodriguez	OPENER	SU	2.41	26.2	6.9	1.09	2/11/5	stable
Wandy Peralta	OPENER	MR	4.04	15.4	8.1	1.17	0/4/14	stable
David Morgan	MR	MR	4.13	24.0	12.8	1.22	0/1/5	stable
Yuki Matsui	MR	MR	4.14	27.1	14.2	1.35	0/8/5	ramping down
Jhony Brito	MR	MR	4.98	17.1	2.9	1.78	0/1/1	insufficient data
Griffin Canning	SP	LR	4.78	22.7	10.5	4.24	0/1/0	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 NYY · 4 SD

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

NYY

3 R

7H · 0HR · 5BB · 9K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.324 · SLGe 0.281 · K% 24.3

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 3 K · relief 1.0 IP · 2 arms

SD

4 R

6H · 4HR · 1BB · 3K · 5LOB

OBPe 0.233 · SLGe 0.621 · K% 10.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

NYY · standout lines

tough nights

Ben Rice (DH) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Ryan McMahon (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

SD · standout lines

big nights

Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR
Jake Cronenworth (2B) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR
Manny Machado (3B) · 1-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR
Luis Campusano (C) · 2-3 | HR, RBI, RHR