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today's slate

ATH @ SEA

Sunday · September 6, 2026·full·gamePk 823091free Saturday

refreshed 476h 38m ago· lineups expected / expected may be stale — sweep job runs every 15m

weather · T-Mobile Park

gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

68°F

humidity 59%

wind

7 mph

in from RF

precip

clear

park

SEA

retractable · HP→CF 36°

wind impact on total

-0.02 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Gage JumpLHP · ATH	Bryan WooRHP · SEA
xERA 2026	4.54	3.65
xwOBA 2026	0.327	0.296
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.008	-0.007
xERA 2025	—	3.07
xwOBA 2025	—	0.274
Outs/TB 25-26	1.89	2.20
FIP 25-26	3.91	3.44
kwERA 25-26	3.81	2.88
K% 25-26	24.3%	26.0%
BB% 25-26	11.1%	5.0%
IP 25+26 combined	92.7	335.0
ERA actual 2026	5.15	4.25
ERA (L4)	5.73	3.86
WHIP (L4)	1.32	0.95
K% (L4)	24.0%	26.5%
BB% (L4)	11.5%	4.8%
IP/gm (L4)	5.50	5.25
L4 window	08/08→08/31 (4 st)	08/11→09/01 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	103 (−3)	113 (+4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.62 (−0.64)	3.69 (+0.12)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.42	0.61

away arsenal — ATH

RV/100 -0.42

4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.355
Slider—+1.70xwOBA 0.313
Curveball—+0.20xwOBA 0.248
Changeup—-2.40xwOBA 0.302
Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.194
Sinker—-3.70xwOBA 0.507

home arsenal — SEA

RV/100 0.61

4-Seam Fastball—+1.00xwOBA 0.321
Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.326
Slider—-0.50xwOBA 0.320
Sweeper—+0.20xwOBA 0.211
Changeup—+3.80xwOBA 0.190
Curveball—-3.40xwOBA 0.165

away · ATH vs RHP

projected

Σ xwOBA

2.716

Σ match

2.713

Σ FRV

-30.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Henry Bolte	0.311	0.304	+4.5
2	3B	Zack Gelof	0.316	0.304	-1.5
3	RF	Lawrence Butler	0.324	0.318	-11.0
4	1B	Tommy White	0.298	0.307	-2.5
5	LF	Carlos Cortes	0.306	0.311	-5.4
6	C	Jonah Heim	0.292	0.289	-5.5
7	2B	Donovan Walton	0.331	0.317	-6.0
8	DH	Max Muncy	0.293	0.307	-4.8
9	SS	Alika Williams	0.245	0.256	+1.2

home · SEA vs LHP

projected

Σ xwOBA

2.905

Σ match

3.079

Σ FRV

-27.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.349	0.357	-6.5
2	DH	Dominic Canzone	0.356	0.394	+0.4
3	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.336	0.358	-0.6
4	1B	Josh Naylor	0.313	0.328	+1.8
5	RF	Taylor Ward	0.333	0.352	-1.2
6	C	Cal Raleigh	0.315	0.322	-2.7
7	2B	Cole Young	0.316	0.332	-3.0
8	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.327	0.348	-7.1
9	3B	Weston Wilson	0.260	0.290	-8.6

defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)

Jonah Heim

FRV-5.5
framing-0.8
blocking-2.2
throwing-1.4

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-2.7
framing-2.8
blocking+2.4
throwing-2.3

ATH · Gage Jump

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs TEX · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	103
Location+	—	—	104
Pitching+	—	—	105
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	3.62

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-31; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SEA · Bryan Woo

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs BOS · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	113
Location+	—	—	107
Pitching+	—	—	114
botOvr	—	—	60
SIERA	—	—	3.69

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.38–0.52]

0.105 R/PA · 0.149 R/out · worst: Geoff Hartlieb (5.25)

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.38–0.46]

0.099 R/PA · 0.140 R/out · worst: Cooper Criswell (4.14)

ATH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Luis Medina	SETUP	SU	3.75	28.6	12.1	1.38	0/10/10	stable
Hogan Harris	SETUP	CL	3.79	29.7	13.8	0.93	15/12/13	stable
Brady Basso	MR	MR	3.27	16.6	3.4	1.22	0/3/0	ramping up
Geoff Hartlieb	MR	MR	4.39	12.3	11.1	2.13	0/2/3	ramping down
Elvis Alvarado	MR	CL	4.56	28.2	11.8	1.08	5/9/11	stable
Seth Johnson	MR	MR	5.04	24.5	16.0	1.13	0/0/4	stable
Chris Roycroft	MR	MR	6.86	14.3	9.5	1.28	1/1/6	ramping up
Yunior Tur	MR	MR	10.52	21.4	11.9	2.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Scott Blewett	unknown	MR	2.14	22.4	7.5	—	0/2/0	—

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	2.89	38.3	9.3	0.93	24/0/29	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.01	23.4	7.8	0.94	0/26/2	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	4.02	17.6	6.5	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	4.08	21.6	8.6	0.82	1/18/5	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	MR	5.01	25.2	13.3	0.89	12/6/18	stable
Cooper Criswell	MR	LR	3.82	18.0	7.5	1.18	1/3/12	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	MR	4.25	26.1	8.3	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	3.52	23.1	5.1	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

0 ATH · 2 SEA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

ATH

0 R

1H · 0HR · 2BB · 10K · 6LOB

OBPe 0.100 · SLGe 0.036 · K% 33.3

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 2 ER · 13 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

SEA

2 R

7H · 0HR · 1BB · 13K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.250 · SLGe 0.226 · K% 40.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 10 K · relief 1.0 IP · 2 arms

ATH · standout lines

tough nights

Jeff McNeil (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Zack Gelof (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Alika Williams (SS) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K