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today's slate

TB @ TEX

Sunday · September 6, 2026·full·gamePk 822848free Saturday

refreshed 473h 50m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Globe Life Field

gametime 2:35 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

98°F

humidity 39%

wind

9 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

clear

park

TEX

retractable · HP→CF 7°

wind impact on total

+0.01 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Ian SeymourLHP · TB	MacKenzie GoreLHP · TEX
xERA 2026	3.45	3.84
xwOBA 2026	0.288	0.303
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.020	0.009
xERA 2025	3.93	4.33
xwOBA 2025	0.308	0.322
Outs/TB 25-26	2.02	1.99
FIP 25-26	3.66	3.73
kwERA 25-26	2.85	3.35
K% 25-26	28.4%	26.3%
BB% 25-26	7.2%	9.2%
IP 25+26 combined	170.3	314.3
ERA actual 2026	4.21	4.31
ERA (L4)	3.33	4.05
WHIP (L4)	1.11	1.85
K% (L4)	35.0%	23.2%
BB% (L4)	3.0%	12.6%
IP/gm (L4)	6.08	5.00
L4 window	08/03→08/31 (4 st)	08/10→09/01 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	95 (−8)	94 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	2.89 (−0.21)	3.81 (−0.06)
Arsenal RV/100	0.35	0.36

away arsenal — TB

RV/100 0.35

Changeup—+0.90xwOBA 0.242
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.298
Sweeper—+0.00xwOBA 0.290
Sinker—+0.20xwOBA 0.375
Slider—-0.10xwOBA 0.274

home arsenal — TEX

RV/100 0.36

4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.311
Curveball—-1.10xwOBA 0.318
Changeup—+1.10xwOBA 0.202
Slider—+1.00xwOBA 0.263
Cutter—-1.70xwOBA 0.409
Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.352

away · TB vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.819

Σ match

2.708

Σ FRV

+6.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Yandy Díaz	0.355	0.321	—
2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	0.350	0.333	-0.4
3	3B	Junior Caminero	0.363	0.362	-8.9
4	2B	Ryan Vilade	0.334	0.320	-2.5
5	LF	Chandler Simpson	0.261	0.257	+3.2
6	CF	Jonny DeLuca	0.265	0.254	+8.4
7	SS	Jorge Mateo	0.303	0.302	+0.1
8	RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	0.311	0.289	+6.7
9	C	Nick Fortes	0.277	0.270	-0.3

home · TEX vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.739

Σ match

2.466

Σ FRV

+5.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Ezequiel Duran	0.306	0.289	+13.5
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.351	0.325	-0.8
3	2B	Justin Foscue	0.331	0.290	+2.3
4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.353	0.315	-4.9
5	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.313	0.272	+3.4
6	1B	Jake Burger	0.312	0.293	+4.4
7	DH	Logan O'Hoppe	0.264	0.231	-14.1
8	C	Elias Díaz	0.278	0.231	+0.7
9	3B	Cody Freeman	0.231	0.219	+1.1

defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)

Nick Fortes

FRV-0.3
framing-0.6
blocking+0.0
throwing+0.3

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Elias Díaz

FRV+0.7
framing-0.2
blocking+0.1
throwing+0.7

TB · Ian Seymour

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs NYM · 6.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	95
Location+	—	—	113
Pitching+	—	—	105
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	2.89

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-31; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TEX · MacKenzie Gore

Last outing 2026-09-01 vs ATH · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	94
Location+	—	—	99
Pitching+	—	—	94
botOvr	—	—	46
SIERA	—	—	3.81

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-09-01. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-01; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TB · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.29–0.49]

0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Alex Cook (5.40)

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.37–0.49]

0.102 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Ben Peoples (5.05)

TB

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Bryan Baker	CLOSER	CL	3.05	27.6	9.2	0.96	39/2/28	stable
Kevin Kelly	SETUP	SU	3.33	21.1	4.5	1.10	4/30/9	stable
Tyler Wells	SETUP	SU	3.42	25.6	6.3	1.26	6/15/13	stable
Casey Legumina	OPENER	MR	3.53	17.8	5.9	1.25	0/7/7	stable
Cole Sulser	OPENER	MR	3.61	24.4	7.1	1.11	2/11/9	stable
Steven Matz	SWING	LR	5.20	17.3	7.3	3.53	1/1/1	ramping down
Cam Booser	MR	MR	3.23	29.5	4.5	1.11	0/10/5	stable
Alex Cook	unknown	MR	7.18	11.8	11.8	—	0/0/0	—

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.67	29.7	8.6	1.28	28/2/26	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	SU	3.38	17.4	6.0	1.12	5/17/9	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	SU	4.06	26.1	14.3	0.85	0/14/7	stable
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	2.83	20.5	6.8	0.95	4/11/11	stable
Adam Macko	MR	MR	4.34	22.5	10.0	1.04	0/5/2	stable
Robby Ahlstrom	MR	MR	5.16	20.5	7.3	0.82	0/6/3	stable
Ben Peoples	MR	MR	5.90	14.7	11.8	1.06	0/0/1	ramping down
Trevor Williams	unknown	MR	3.92	29.8	8.3	—	0/1/0	—
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	LR	4.96	19.7	6.1	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 TB · 8 TEX

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TB

6 R

10H · 0HR · 4BB · 4K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.333 · SLGe 0.306 · K% 9.5

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 6 ER · 8 K · relief 5.0 IP · 6 arms

TEX

8 R

12H · 3HR · 5BB · 8K · 23LOB

OBPe 0.395 · SLGe 0.622 · K% 18.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 4 K · relief 6.0 IP · 6 arms

TB · standout lines

tough nights

Jorge Mateo (SS) · 0-4 | K, R0-for-4

TEX · standout lines

big nights

Ezequiel Duran (3B) · 3-5 | 2 K, RBI, R3 H
Corey Seager (SS) · 1-5 | HR, RBI, RHR
Jake Burger (1B) · 2-4 | 2 HR, BB, 2 K2-HR night · 8 TB

tough nights

Evan Carter (CF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K