Baseball Daily

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today's slate

BOS @ BAL

Saturday · September 5, 2026·full·gamePk 824795free Saturday

refreshed 494h 20m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oriole Park at Camden Yards

gametime 7:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

80°F

humidity 45%

wind

6 mph

in from CF

precip

clear

park

BAL

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

-0.19 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.19 R/G vs neutral. _Inner Harbor breeze — wind in from RF cools HR rate in early season; warmer summer = ball flies_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Sonny GrayRHP · BOS	Chris BassittRHP · BAL
xERA 2026	3.71	5.12
xwOBA 2026	0.298	0.345
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.003	0.015
xERA 2025	3.88	4.16
xwOBA 2025	0.306	0.316
Outs/TB 25-26	1.92	1.79
FIP 25-26	3.45	4.19
kwERA 25-26	3.13	3.86
K% 25-26	24.5%	20.2%
BB% 25-26	5.6%	7.4%
IP 25+26 combined	324.3	250.0
ERA actual 2026	2.82	4.97
ERA (L4)	1.50	4.24
WHIP (L4)	1.12	1.46
K% (L4)	24.5%	17.8%
BB% (L4)	5.1%	6.9%
IP/gm (L4)	6.00	5.83
L4 window	08/05→08/26 (4 st)	08/14→08/30 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	100 (−1)	98 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.93 (+0.11)	4.24 (−0.51)
Arsenal RV/100	0.52	-0.88

away arsenal — BOS

RV/100 0.52

Sinker—+2.10xwOBA 0.264
Sweeper—+1.30xwOBA 0.198
Cutter—+0.00xwOBA 0.368
4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.381
Curveball—-1.60xwOBA 0.329
Changeup—+0.30xwOBA 0.297

home arsenal — BAL

RV/100 -0.88

Sinker—-0.30xwOBA 0.345
Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.300
Cutter—-2.10xwOBA 0.396
4-Seam Fastball—-5.70xwOBA 0.509
Sweeper—+1.40xwOBA 0.270
Changeup—-1.10xwOBA 0.392
Slider—+2.70xwOBA 0.238

away · BOS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.824

Σ match

3.209

Σ FRV

+3.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Roman Anthony	0.370	0.391	+0.5
2	1B	Mickey Gasper	0.373	0.393	-3.8
3	RF	Wilyer Abreu	0.348	0.405	+4.3
4	SS	Trevor Story	0.250	0.310	-2.6
5	3B	Nick Sogard	0.323	0.366	+0.7
6	2B	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	0.306	0.322	+4.3
7	LF	Jarren Duran	0.297	0.386	+3.8
8	CF	Eli White	0.269	0.312	+4.3
9	C	Connor Wong	0.288	0.324	-8.4

home · BAL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.721

Σ match

2.830

Σ FRV

-8.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Jackson Holliday	0.306	0.297	-4.0
2	2B	Blaze Alexander	0.357	0.342	-5.2
3	SS	Gunnar Henderson	0.316	0.315	+1.5
4	1B	Pete Alonso	0.393	0.368	-1.6
5	C	Samuel Basallo	0.321	0.311	-2.2
6	RF	Heston Kjerstad	0.051	0.244	—
7	3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0.350	0.331	+2.9
8	LF	Dylan Beavers	0.307	0.288	-6.4
9	CF	Colton Cowser	0.320	0.333	+6.1

defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)

Connor Wong

FRV-8.4
framing-7.4
blocking+0.4
throwing-1.4

defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)

Samuel Basallo

FRV-2.2
framing-4.6
blocking+0.9
throwing+2.1

BOS · Sonny Gray

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs MIA · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	95
Pitching+	—	—	100
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	3.93

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

BAL · Chris Bassitt

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs ATH · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	100
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	4.24

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.46]

0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Brayan Bello (4.37)

BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.35–0.48]

0.096 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Albert Suárez (4.43)

BOS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Aroldis Chapman	CLOSER	CL	2.58	32.0	10.2	0.96	32/0/27	stable
Garrett Whitlock	SETUP	SU	2.15	29.4	4.0	0.97	2/24/7	stable
Erik Miller	SETUP	SU	2.98	34.7	14.0	0.86	4/12/7	stable
Greg Weissert	SETUP	MR	4.13	23.9	7.7	0.96	1/6/4	stable
Brayan Bello	BULK	LR	4.31	16.2	7.6	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up
Jovani Morán	OPENER	MR	4.53	25.9	11.9	1.53	0/4/6	ramping down
Alec Gamboa	MR	MR	3.12	18.0	7.0	1.60	1/1/5	ramping up
Wyatt Olds	unknown	MR	3.69	27.0	10.8	—	0/0/0	—
Raymond Burgos	unknown	MR	3.71	18.5	1.9	—	1/0/0	—

BAL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yennier Cano	SETUP	SU	2.71	22.3	5.4	0.74	3/13/6	stable
Grant Wolfram	SETUP	MR	2.93	25.8	7.2	0.80	1/12/3	stable
Andrew Kittredge	SETUP	CL	3.63	18.9	5.6	0.87	9/9/11	stable
Rico Garcia	SETUP	CL	4.11	26.0	8.5	0.93	6/18/16	stable
Albert Suárez	BULK	LR	4.60	16.2	8.1	2.54	1/0/9	stable
Alex Hoppe	MR	MR	3.03	24.8	9.7	1.14	1/5/13	stable
Josh Walker	MR	MR	3.40	24.5	8.5	1.20	0/3/3	ramping down
Cam Sanders	MR	MR	3.62	27.8	15.7	1.00	3/1/5	stable
Luis De León	unknown	MR	8.49	25.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 BOS · 0 BAL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

BOS

5 R

9H · 0HR · 5BB · 10K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.342 · SLGe 0.278 · K% 24.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 10 K · relief 2.0 IP · 4 arms

BAL

0 R

5H · 0HR · 5BB · 10K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.286 · SLGe 0.267 · K% 28.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 10 K · relief 3.3 IP · 3 arms

BOS · standout lines

big nights

Trevor Story (SS) · 3-5 | 2 K, 2 R3 H

tough nights

Roman Anthony (DH) · 0-5 | 3 K0-for-5 · 3 K
Jarren Duran (LF) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K, R0-for-3 · 2 K

BAL · standout lines

tough nights

Jackson Holliday (DH) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Blaze Alexander (2B) · 0-4 | K, SB0-for-4
Samuel Basallo (C) · 0-40-for-4