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today's slate

MIN @ CWS

Saturday · September 5, 2026·full·gamePk 824553free Saturday

refreshed 494h 16m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Rate Field

gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

74°F

humidity 90%

wind

11 mph

in from CF

precip

partly cloudy

park

CWS

open · HP→CF 38°

wind impact on total

-0.34 R/Gmoderate in

Moderate wind in: -0.34 R/G vs neutral. _Open bowl on south side; Chicago summer wind off the lake can swirl_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Taj BradleyRHP · MIN	Anthony KayLHP · CWS
xERA 2026	3.92	4.92
xwOBA 2026	0.306	0.339
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.002	-0.001
xERA 2025	4.10	—
xwOBA 2025	0.314	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.04	1.83
FIP 25-26	4.12	4.80
kwERA 25-26	3.66	4.14
K% 25-26	24.2%	18.5%
BB% 25-26	9.7%	8.0%
IP 25+26 combined	297.0	136.7
ERA actual 2026	3.85	4.28
ERA (L4)	3.42	6.10
WHIP (L4)	1.14	1.45
K% (L4)	34.7%	18.3%
BB% (L4)	9.2%	6.5%
IP/gm (L4)	5.92	5.17
L4 window	08/08→08/31 (4 st)	08/08→08/31 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	107 (−2)	105 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.27 (+0.43)	3.92 (−0.55)
Arsenal RV/100	0.14	-0.41

away arsenal — MIN

RV/100 0.14

4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.379
Cutter—+0.90xwOBA 0.233
Split-Finger—-0.30xwOBA 0.241
Curveball—-2.80xwOBA 0.247

home arsenal — CWS

RV/100 -0.41

4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.354
Sweeper—-0.80xwOBA 0.324
Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.346
Cutter—-0.10xwOBA 0.424
Changeup—-1.00xwOBA 0.257
Slider—-1.80xwOBA 0.288

away · MIN vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.851

Σ match

3.103

Σ FRV

-18.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Luke Keaschall	0.315	0.340	-10.6
2	SS	Kaelen Culpepper	0.316	0.337	-0.1
3	C	Ryan Jeffers	0.354	0.378	-2.8
4	DH	Josh Bell	0.332	0.360	-0.9
5	1B	Royce Lewis	0.317	0.359	-2.2
6	2B	Kody Clemens	0.341	0.362	-2.6
7	3B	Brooks Lee	0.274	0.321	-1.4
8	LF	Gabriel Gonzalez	0.315	0.324	-0.0
9	CF	Ryan Kreidler	0.287	0.321	+2.3

home · CWS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.910

Σ match

2.945

Σ FRV

+11.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Sam Antonacci	0.340	0.341	-8.5
2	3B	Miguel Vargas	0.387	0.365	-4.4
3	1B	Munetaka Murakami	0.352	0.364	-0.7
4	DH	Andrew Benintendi	0.310	0.301	-1.6
5	SS	Colson Montgomery	0.305	0.299	+8.4
6	RF	Braden Montgomery	0.332	0.368	+0.7
7	2B	Chase Meidroth	0.293	0.305	+9.6
8	CF	Tristan Peters	0.320	0.331	+9.9
9	C	Jake Rogers	0.271	0.270	-2.2

defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Ryan Jeffers

FRV-2.8
framing-0.2
blocking+0.1
throwing-2.7

defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)

Jake Rogers

FRV-2.2
framing-1.5
blocking-1.5
throwing+0.8

MIN · Taj Bradley

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs DET · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	107
Location+	—	—	94
Pitching+	—	—	98
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	4.27

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-31; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CWS · Anthony Kay

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs HOU · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	105
Location+	—	—	111
Pitching+	—	—	116
botOvr	—	—	59
SIERA	—	—	3.92

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.32–0.48]

0.094 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Kody Funderburk (4.53)

CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.38–0.50]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Tyler Schweitzer (4.95)

MIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yoendrys Gómez	CLOSER	CL	4.58	21.2	12.7	1.12	20/6/26	ramping down
Jeff Hoffman	SETUP	SU	2.51	34.2	9.6	0.94	5/16/16	stable
Kody Funderburk	SETUP	MR	4.00	19.7	12.4	0.94	1/10/1	stable
Taylor Rogers	SETUP	MR	4.09	18.9	11.2	0.82	2/9/10	stable
Andrew Morris	OPENER	MR	3.18	21.1	7.9	1.31	4/20/6	ramping down
Garrett Acton	MR	MR	2.06	28.9	6.7	1.67	0/0/3	ramping down
Tommy Nance	MR	MR	3.65	25.2	9.0	1.04	0/6/4	stable
A.J. Minter	MR	SU	3.81	21.1	4.2	1.00	0/6/8	stable
Travis Adams	MR	LR	4.16	25.9	10.2	1.46	2/1/6	stable

CWS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sean Newcomb	SETUP	SU	2.90	22.6	8.7	1.51	4/11/6	ramping up
Grant Taylor	OPENER	CL	2.47	32.3	8.6	1.33	8/10/11	stable
Bryan Hudson	OPENER	CL	3.17	22.2	6.9	0.98	7/9/8	stable
Jordan Hicks	MR	MR	4.00	27.4	15.3	0.91	1/8/6	stable
José Urquidy	MR	LR	4.01	17.5	5.3	1.27	1/0/4	ramping down
Tyler Davis	MR	MR	4.10	20.7	14.4	1.10	1/0/6	stable
Trevor Richards	MR	MR	4.16	22.3	7.9	1.46	1/1/16	stable
Tyler Schweitzer	MR	MR	4.35	12.0	8.3	1.86	1/2/6	ramping up
Hagen Smith	unknown	MR	3.47	35.8	18.9	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 MIN · 4 CWS

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIN

6 R

8H · 1HR · 2BB · 5K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.289 · SLGe 0.400 · K% 13.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 12 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

CWS

4 R

6H · 2HR · 2BB · 12K · 8LOB

OBPe 0.229 · SLGe 0.424 · K% 34.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 5 K · relief 4.7 IP · 5 arms

MIN · standout lines

big nights

Ryan Jeffers (C) · 1-4 | HR, K, 3 RBIHR

CWS · standout lines

big nights

Munetaka Murakami (1B) · 1-4 | HR, 3 K, 2 RBIHR
Colson Montgomery (SS) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR

tough nights

Braden Montgomery (RF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4