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today's slate

MIL @ CIN

Saturday · September 5, 2026·full·gamePk 824468free Saturday

refreshed 494h 17m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Great American Ball Park

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

89°F

humidity 51%

wind

7 mph

in from RF

precip

clear

park

CIN

open · HP→CF 24°

wind impact on total

-0.18 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.18 R/G vs neutral. _Great American small dimensions amplify any wind-out signal; SW summer winds out to RF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Dustin MayRHP · MIL	Andrew AbbottLHP · CIN
xERA 2026	4.21	5.02
xwOBA 2026	0.316	0.342
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.000	-0.014
xERA 2025	5.20	3.56
xwOBA 2025	0.349	0.294
Outs/TB 25-26	1.92	2.01
FIP 25-26	4.19	4.19
kwERA 25-26	3.87	4.02
K% 25-26	21.7%	19.9%
BB% 25-26	8.9%	8.4%
IP 25+26 combined	261.0	314.7
ERA actual 2026	4.69	4.49
ERA (L4)	7.90	4.50
WHIP (L4)	1.76	1.33
K% (L4)	16.9%	16.7%
BB% (L4)	10.8%	10.8%
IP/gm (L4)	3.42	6.00
L4 window	08/12→08/30 (4 st)	08/01→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	92 (−10)	92 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.45 (+1.37)	6.33 (+1.30)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.07	-0.28

away arsenal — MIL

RV/100 -0.07

4-Seam Fastball—+0.00xwOBA 0.312
Cutter—+0.80xwOBA 0.313
Sweeper—-1.10xwOBA 0.300
Sinker—+1.10xwOBA 0.343
Curveball—-1.20xwOBA 0.294
Changeup—-2.50xwOBA 0.349

home arsenal — CIN

RV/100 -0.28

4-Seam Fastball—-0.50xwOBA 0.405
Sweeper—+0.10xwOBA 0.240
Changeup—+0.40xwOBA 0.281
Curveball—-1.10xwOBA 0.330
Cutter—-0.30xwOBA 0.423

away · MIL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.897

Σ match

3.186

Σ FRV

+1.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Jackson Chourio	0.334	0.371	+4.8
2	RF	Luis Lara	0.317	0.365	+1.4
3	DH	William Contreras	0.334	0.350	-2.2
4	1B	Andrew Vaughn	0.336	0.397	-6.5
5	CF	Garrett Mitchell	0.348	0.360	+3.4
6	3B	Joey Ortiz	0.297	0.313	+8.7
7	SS	Cooper Pratt	0.315	0.324	+3.3
8	C	Gary Sánchez	0.341	0.407	-4.6
9	2B	David Hamilton	0.275	0.299	-6.5

home · CIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.495

Σ match

2.822

Σ FRV

-8.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Héctor Rodríguez	0.272	0.277	-0.1
2	SS	Elly De La Cruz	0.362	0.365	+4.6
3	1B	Sal Stewart	0.350	0.355	-3.6
4	LF	JJ Bleday	0.350	0.370	-0.6
5	DH	Tyler Stephenson	0.337	0.356	-6.0
6	3B	Eugenio Suárez	0.286	0.297	-6.6
7	C	Jose Trevino	0.223	0.233	+1.4
8	CF	Carlos Jorge	0.008	0.249	—
9	2B	Matt McLain	0.307	0.319	+2.5

defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)

Gary Sánchez

FRV-4.6
framing-2.2
blocking-1.3
throwing+0.0

defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Jose Trevino

FRV+1.4
framing+1.2
blocking+0.9
throwing-0.7

MIL · Dustin May

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs TEX · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	92
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	100
botOvr	—	—	59
SIERA	—	—	5.45

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CIN · Andrew Abbott

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs AZ · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	92
Location+	—	—	92
Pitching+	—	—	86
botOvr	—	—	47
SIERA	—	—	6.33

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-06 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.37–0.46]

0.097 R/PA · 0.138 R/out · worst: Chad Patrick (4.10)

CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.38–0.49]

0.103 R/PA · 0.146 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.75)

MIL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Trevor Megill	CLOSER	CL	1.63	29.5	6.7	0.97	26/7/21	stable
Aaron Ashby	SETUP	SU	2.88	31.8	11.3	1.23	2/15/5	stable
Abner Uribe	SETUP	SU	2.97	25.9	9.1	0.99	6/20/13	stable
JoJo Romero	SETUP	MR	3.91	22.8	8.3	0.98	0/21/4	stable
Grant Anderson	SETUP	LR	4.42	21.8	9.5	1.11	0/5/8	stable
Chad Patrick	SWING	MR	3.98	20.7	9.9	2.46	5/10/5	ramping down
Antonio Senzatela	MR	MR	3.57	19.4	8.3	1.61	3/10/11	ramping down
DL Hall	MR	MR	3.92	27.3	15.5	1.29	0/5/5	stable

CIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Emilio Pagán	CLOSER	CL	4.73	24.8	6.2	0.91	20/0/15	stable
Brock Burke	SETUP	SU	3.93	24.1	13.6	0.95	2/16/10	stable
Pierce Johnson	SETUP	MR	4.32	20.3	8.5	0.88	1/8/8	stable
Tony Santillan	SETUP	MR	7.01	18.8	13.3	0.91	5/11/11	stable
Luis Mey	MR	MR	3.45	32.2	13.9	1.24	0/3/0	ramping down
Tejay Antone	MR	SU	3.99	23.9	7.0	1.00	1/9/6	stable
Julian Garcia	MR	MR	4.68	25.0	9.5	1.62	2/3/2	stable
Sam Moll	MOP_UP	MR	4.17	21.8	11.7	0.88	1/7/5	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 MIL · 5 CIN

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIL

3 R

8H · 1HR · 4BB · 14K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.308 · SLGe 0.353 · K% 35.9

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 5 ER · 12 K · relief 4.3 IP · 5 arms

CIN

5 R

12H · 3HR · 1BB · 12K · 8LOB

OBPe 0.371 · SLGe 0.647 · K% 34.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 14 K · relief 5.0 IP · 6 arms

MIL · standout lines

big nights

William Contreras (DH) · 1-5 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR

tough nights

Luis Lara (RF) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K, RBI0-for-4 · 2 K
Garrett Mitchell (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

CIN · standout lines

big nights

Elly De La Cruz (SS) · 2-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR
Tyler Stephenson (DH) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR
Matt McLain (2B) · 1-3 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Carlos Jorge (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K